When the delegates to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primaries gather in Asaba next month to elect the party’s flag bearer in next year’s Delta State gubernatorial election, the interest of President Goodluck Jonathan,  whose name will not be on the ballot, more than anyone else, not even that of Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan and the aspirants, will determine who wins the party nomination.

If the party leadership is aware of this fact and it holds true, I dare to predict that the nominee, contrary to what the Anioma politicians including some aspirants and their counterpart in the media want the Anioma people to believe, will not be an Anioma, but rather anUrhobo from Delta Central.

Jonathan faces a tough re-election battle with the emergence of the All Progressives Party (APC) which is threatening PDP’s  hold on the central government. In 2011, voter turnout in South-east and South-south was 65.8% and 67.96% respectively. If he and the party must hold on to power, there must be an increase in voter turnout in the 2015 presidential election in these geo-political zones.

In the absence of any valid zoning arrangement that is acceptable to all, no Anioma candidate can help the President to achieve the kind of victory he requires. So far, neither the Anioma aspirants nor their sympathizers have been able to prove that there is any arrangement.

A gubernatorial candidate of Urhobo extraction from Delta Central would help the President in a way a Delta northerner cannot.  In  the 2011 elections, Delta Central alone accounted for about 60 percent of votes in the presidential election in Delta  and, without Urhobo votes, the President cannot win absolute majority of votes cast in the state. So why will PDP award its ticket to one of the Anioma aspirants on the basis of a non-existing zoning arrangement, who will act as a drag to Mr. President’s effort to be re-elected?

What baffles me most is how tackless the Anioma campaign has been. All along they have been content with just saying “Delta Central has produced Governor James Ibori and Delta South has gotten Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan and it is now our turn”, hoping that others will just surrender the crown to them. That has not happened and it will not happen.

If the Urhobos win the PDP gubernatorial ticket, it is not because they believe that they must rule, but because they made a better case and won the argument. And no one else deserves the credit than Obarisi  Ovie Omo-Agege, who has consistently argued that PDP needs a candidate, who can help the President win re-election.

“Members of the PDP family are interested in who can win not just the governorship election for our party but also whose candidacy can guarantee that APC does not get 25 percent of the votes in the presidential election”, Omo-Agege said months ago.

Last week, Omo-Agege declared: “I strongly believe that I, more than anyone else in the race, can achieve these overall objectives for our party. My candidacy in the governorship election will ensure a greater voter turnout in the presidential election and help Mr. President achieve a landslide victory that will make it impossible for APC to secure 25 percent of the votes in Delta  State.”

Surely Omo-Agege is formidable enough to comprehensively win the governorship for the party and help President Goodluck achieve higher voter turnout in the presidential election. His nomination will guarantee the PDP a start off with about 60 percent of the votes which the Urhobos can muster all across the state and effectively put the election out of play for the opposition even before the campaigns begin.

Clearly the odds are in favour of Delta Central  to produce the next governor of Delta and the man better positioned to emerge is the Obarisi of Urhobo himself.

Emma Johnson is an Asaba based public affairs analyst