Adisa Adeleye

As repeated in this column many times, the country‘s problems are many, varied, complex and fundamental.  And like the United States of America‘s balance of payments, would always end in fundamental disequilibrium.  The main reason is that as a watchdog of the world, its foreign exchange expenditure is always more than the surplus on its balance of trade.

The problem of political instability in the country could be conveniently traced to the concept of a federal constitution being run as a unitary one, i.e. the civilian President acting like a military Head of State.  Under this system, constituent states of the federation are dependent on the centre for political direction and economic subvention through the monthly bazaar of which the Federal Government takes 52%.

The military, under General Abubakar Abdulsalam who designed the 1999 Constitution on behalf of ‘my people‘ knew exactly what it wanted – a very strong centre with politically weak and economically non-viable states and local governments.  Chief Olusegun Obasanjo came out of the Abacha prison to become a politician with doubtful democratic pretentions.  He later became the President of Nigeria through election won by his party, Peoples‘ Democratic Party (PDP), a party believed to be supported by former military power brokers.  Obasanjo was believed to be one of them and their anointed candidate, thus becoming the godfather of future Nigerian Presidents.
If this theory is not in the realm of fantasy, it would be naïve for President Jonathan to think that he won the 2011 elections through the combined block votes of South-South and South-East areas.  How about logistic support and other factors necessary for election victories in Nigeria?  It should be remembered that in 1999, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo won the Presidential race without the block votes of his Yoruba people and the supporters of ANPP in North-East and North-Western States of Nigeria.

However, if the civilian political ‘Lilliputians‘ in the PDP think that they can outwit the former military game masters, I would gladly remind them of the wise saying of the late Winston Churchill, a former soldier, politician and Britain‘s 2nd World war leader.  The legendary statesman noted that, “but in craft, in slow intrigue, in strength of personality, in doubtful dangerous maneuvers, the soldier beats the politician every time”.  Many would say, anytime, and anywhere.

It must be agreed that though disdainful to ‘some‘, disagreeable to others, and distasteful to many, former President Obasanjo‘s open “Letter” to President Jonathan is not in bad taste.  It is like a good advice of a loving father to a prodigal son – believed to be fun loving but arrogant.  If the President is ill advised to prolong the ill-feelings, then he should watch his back carefully because former President Obasanjo is believed to be harmless.  According to one of his old colleagues, Obasanjo is a serious planner with a mixture of intrigues and tricks.  He is also known to be an expert in ‘confrontational tactics‘.  As for the unity of Nigeria, Chief Obasanjo is described as an incurable optimist.
It looks as if the best answer to Obasanjo‘s antics lies in good governance, zero tolerance approach to corruption, high employment rate and general prosperity.  Unfortunately for the country and its people, the ruling party in the Federal Government has not been able to tackle seriously and successfully the twin problems of unemployment and deepening poverty.   Also, by its action or indication, the ruling party has failed to convince many Nigerians that it is really ready to face and fight corruption.

It is generally noted that corruption disease has become endemic in the country and that has affected its total eradication without destroying the existing structure of the country.  However, what the people are expecting is the show of seriousness on the part of political leadership of the country – an attitude that is sadly lacking in the existing political class.  A corrupt society will always give room for extraneous factors of destabilization.
Inadequate security to life and property is one of the most serious problems of the country.  Apart from the deadly Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, the resurgence of deadly armed robberies on persons and banks is worrying; in many parts of Nigeria, especially in the South.   It appears as if armed guards are no longer deterrents to heavily armed bandits.  The lust for easy money and quest for lucrative political posts are tearing families and political friends apart – leading to ritual killings and political assassinations.

However, the problem of adequate security is for all Nigerians to tackle.  I do not believe that grave and sensitive matters should be left alone in the hands of a single party which has no will to tackle its internal problems of insecurity, impunity and indiscipline.  It is a serious error of judgment to assign responsibility to President Jonathan and his party alone.  This has been the stand of many patriotic Nigerians over the years, but sadly neglected by the politicians of different parties.

From the position of his divided party, the PDP and weak disposition of the President to many of Nigeria‘s complex problems, the redeeming factor is the prospect of a National Conference which is being opposed by the 2015 power mongers but liked by many patriotic Nigerians.  If President Jonathan is serious and appears genuine in his approach, he might secure a glorious name for himself after its successful completion.
Many patriotic Nigerians believe that the problems of Nigeria appear partly structural and partly, constitutional.  On Constitution, a noted authority on French politics, Dorothy Pickles noted that, “It is not that Constitutions cannot guarantee to safeguard the future.  There are some ills of which constitutions have no cure and among them are deep and bitter political divisions”.

Sadly enough in Nigeria, apart from deep and bitter political divisions, there are also, ethnic and religious cleverages turning one brother against the other, and shedding precious blood of the innocent people.