By CHARLES KUMOLU

HAVING prided itself as the largest political party in Africa, it was not a surprise that the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, dismissed the defection of five of its seven aggrieved governors to the All Progressives Congress, APC, as a non-issue.

‘’The presidency does not feel threatened; the PDP does not feel threatened. PDP is the party to beat. We have had it before; even people who occupied higher offices left the party and came back to the party. Outside, there is nothing, PDP is the only party. It is good that they have shown the world that they have taken a stand so that PDP will not be distracted,” Special Adviser to the President on Political Affairs, Ahmed Gulak, said in response to the development.

Needed geo-political spread

Contrary to Gulak’s view, the development is an issue that can threaten the PDP’s electoral strangle-hold and pretending that the defection of five state governors to the APC does not constitute any threat may be suicidal for the ruling party.

nPDP MergeS with APC: From left, former nPDP Chairman Abubakar Kawu Baraje, former Nasarawa State Governor, Senator Abdulahi Adamu, APC Leader Bola Tinubu, APC Leader Ogbonnaya Onu; Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi and others shortly after merger of nPDP with APC in Abuja, yesterday. Photo: Gbemiga Olamikan.

How? Obviously, the development has altered political equations across the country and the polity is expected to witness switching of loyalty and defections by party faithful in the days ahead.

The implication of this is that the numerical strength and spread upon which the party derived its acclaimed status, have been reduced, making it to almost be on same numerical page with the APC.

Accordingly, the development has left the PDP with 18 governors, while APC has 16. The All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, and Labour Party, LP, have one each.

The APC now has the geo-political spread needed to pursue its electoral objectives, given that unlike the PDP, it has a foothold in all the geo-political zones—a situation some analysts described as unhealthy for the PDP, which does not have a governor in the South-West zone.

Besides, the North-West and the South West, which have the highest voting population in the country, are not under the PDP’s control. The North-West which is the home base of Vice President Namadi Sambo and Major General Muhammudu Buhari (rtd) may in the days to come, witness a very strong presence of the APC, thereby dimming PDP’s hope of securing huge votes from the zone in the 2015 general elections.

Numerical implications: Statistically, the zone has about 18,900, 543 registered voters.

A breakdown of the figures showed that Sokoto is believed to have 2, 065,508 voters; Kano has 5,135, 415 while Jigawa has 1,852,698, voters.

In the North Central with the numerical voting strength of about 7,675,369 registered voters, Kwara State accounts for 1,115,665 voters.On the strength of this, PDP’s dominance of the region is now under threat following the loss of Kwara to the APC and membership of former Nassarawa State governor, Alhaji Adamu Abdullahi of the party. This is why the zone can no longer be regarded as an exclusive preserve of the PDP, though the party is believed to be unshaken in Benue and Kogi states.

Apart from Rivers State, Anambra and Imo, the South-East and South-South could not be said to have strong presence of the opposition. But given that Rivers accounts for about 2,419,057 voters out of the 8,937,057 registered voters in the South-South, the loss of the state is enough to give the PDP sleepless nights.

Also, in the North-East, analysts have argued that the exit of the five governors might have little or no impact on PDP’s prospects, as the party is known to be in firm control of party structures in Taraba, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe and Gombe states. The only state where the opposition control in the zone is Adamawa, where former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Governor Murtala Nyako come from.

NASS equation

The equation is likely to be altered in the National Assembly where previously the PDP had the majority of lawmakers. While the Senate might remain under the party’s control, the PDP could lose its majority in House of Representatives.

In the Senate the APC, before the defections had 34 senators, while the PDP had 71. But now, APC has 49 senators, PDP 56, APGA 1 and LP 3.

Before now, the PDP had 208 lawmakers in the House out of which 57 pledged allegiance to the defunct New PDP, while the APC had 107 members. With legislators from the affected states likely to defect to the APC alongside their state governors, the opposition would end up having 194 members, thereby leaving PDP with 1147 legislators in the lower chamber.