IN the next few days the territory of Nigeria which President Goodluck Jonathan swore as Commander-in-Chief to defend may shrink by several hundreds of square kilometres; almost the equivalent of a state. And this is vital territory in the oil-rich Bakassi region of the Gulf of Guinea.

This misfortune which has attracted little attention from the Presidency, is giving security agencies cause for serious concern.Upon the handover of Bakassi, a vital local government in Cross River State to Cameroun, the Federal Government, through its agencies, the National Boundary Commission and Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission, have set out to adjust the maritime boundary   between Cross River and Akwa Ibom states.

The aim of this was to remove Cross River from the list of oil producing states. Indeed this has actually been effected in 2008 while Jonathan was still Vice President and Chairman of the National Boundary Commission.

Cross River, grappling with the Bakassi refugees evacuated after the handover of Bakassi to Cameroun, had found the action of the Federal Government an unbearable provocation and instituted an action at the Supreme Court.Upon the handover of Bakassi to Cameroun, Akwa Ibom claims that any territory that was vested in Cross River State around the Bakassi area but which was not handed over to Cameroun should be transferred from Cross River State to Akwa Ibom State.

The Federal Government had supported this claim by Akwa Ibom and directed its agencies to implement the arrangement. The resistance from Cross River landed the two states and the Federal Government at the Supreme Court where legal battles have been raging.

The judgment of the Supreme Court expected in the second week of July 2012, may define the Jonathan presidency forever. The Federal Government, which is a party in that case, had through the National Boundary Commission prepared and tendered a map showing the new boundaries between Cross River and Akwa Ibom states. The map clearly supports the claim of Akwa Ibom State that upon the handover of Bakassi to Cameroun, any portion of the sea hitherto vested in Cross River should now be vested in Akwa Ibom and that Cross River is no longer a littoral state.

Legal arguments apart, what is worrisome here is that the baseline set by the International Court of Justice to demarcate the internal waters of Nigeria and Cameroun from the territorial sea has been moved INWARD unilaterally by the National Boundary Commission.

The inward shift of this baseline, if accepted by the Supreme Court, would have ceded hundreds of kilometers of Nigerian territory into the high sea open to navigation and regulation by the international community.The economic and security implications of the situation far outweigh the political implications, and more fundamentally weakens the negotiating strength of the country in the Gulf of Guinea.

Because the convergence point for the territorial sea boundaries between Nigeria, Cameroun and Equitorial Guinea is still being negotiated, this inward shift of the baseline will generate a corresponding inward shift of the convergence point against the interest of Nigeria.Unfortunately this looming event seems to have generated little attention so far from the President and is even being strongly supported by the Federal Government.

The handover of Bakassi to Cameroun was a black spot for the Obasanjo presidency. But while the Obasanjo presidency lost Nigerian territory after turbulent legal battles at the World Court, the Jonathan presidency seems eager to unilaterally cede Nigerian territory without any contest from external powers. That will really be a sad day for Nigeria.

Ms. RITA EDET, a commentator on national issues, wrote from  Calabar, Cross River State.