…Options before Mr. President, PDP and opposition parties

By Jide Ajani

This is a build up to  President  Goodluck Jonathan’s first year in office as an elected leader. But there appears to be a stasis in the affairs of the nation, occasionally shattered by the bombing raids of insurgents. Yet, the political class is enmeshed in a controversy about succession come 2015. Worse, the body language still Mr. President and his minders suggests that it could be a go for him.

This piece is an exploratory voyage on possible scenarios and outcomes, particularly in the power struggle to come between the North and Jonathan over zoning, within the context of the report that Nigeria risks disintegration either by 2015 or by 2030.And whereas Mr. President has declared that they should let him focus on development issues for now, those who would benefit from his decision to contest or not are still on the prowl.

JONATHAN’S VOTE FOR ZONING IN 2002
He would have been awe struck. Late on the night of December 2, 2002, when then Deputy Governor of Bayelsa State, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, representing his boss, Diepreye Solomon Peter Alamieyeseigha, sat in that conference room of Aso Rock Presidential Villa, he could not have known that the events of that night would play a significant role in his evolution later in life – that was the day he participated in, and voted for the retention of the zoning arrangement of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, restating that the South would have eight years after which the North would have its own eight years of presidential power.

But events were to both collaborate in favour of and conspire against Jonathan some 10 years later – it had to do with the propriety or otherwise of his aspiration as a contender in the presidential race of his party in January 2011.  Jonathan got the ticket of his party and went on to win the presidential elections of 2011.

There endeth the easy part.
Just before the elections and immediately after, those who promised that Jonathan’s tenure as President and Commmander-in-Chief would be hellish have since been keeping their promise. Today, the agitation is already on for which section of the country  would produce the president in 2015, barely a year into a four-year tenure.

2015 AND DISINTEGRATION
Yes, 2015.  That is the year that was initially predicted as Nigeria’s year of doom, when disintegration is expected to set into the affairs of the nation.  But it has been again reviewed to 2030.

According to a report emanating from the United States of America, “Nigeria (is expected to) be engaged in multipartite civil war like it happened in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991 before its final disintegration in 2030, a report by the United States military experts released by the Centre for Strategy and Technology, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama has said.

“The report, written by five US military scholars and entitled “Failed State 2030: Nigeria – A case study” and dated February 2011, is one of the many periodic scenario building analyses undertaken by the US military think tanks on the future of countries within the sphere of economic interests of the US. In the 156-page latest report, the US Air Force officers posit that “Nigeria’s lack of unifying national identity, history of corrupt governance, religious and cultural schisms, and shifting demographics may cause the state, over time, to break apart.”

“In the case of Nigeria in 2030, the experts believed that Nigeria’s “history of tribal and religious conflicts, endemic corruption at all levels of government, poor national planning, uneven development, social disorder, rampant criminality, violent insurgency, and terminal weak governance provides an environment that could portend imminent collapse and failure.””

An earlier report had been released during the administration of former President Matthew Okikiolakan Aremu Obasanjo by the US National Intelligence Council, where the US intelligence experts predicted Nigeria’s collapse in 2015. The consolation, which former Foreign Affairs Minister, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, agreed with in a separate interview,  is that “”the military scholars explained that the security report is “not a specific prediction of the future or a depiction of a state of affairs that will and must occur” but “a discussion of how the trends occurring in Nigeria since its birth as a nation in 1960 could, under the right conditions, lead to its failure.”That is where Akinyemi comes in.

In an interview with Sunday Vanguard on a separate issue, Akinyemi pointed out that “Nigeria should be eternally thankful to the United States of America, USA, for alerting us on the impending danger”, adding that “the wise thing for us to do as a people who want to be seen as wise is to act now and not attack the messenger”.

Alarmingly, the report concludes that “fragmentation of the Nigerian body politic could create conditions for a multipartite civil war, mirroring in some ways the events in Lebanon in 1975 and Somalia in 1991. The report however said that “Nigeria’s 250 million people, 350 different ethnicities, and religious differences can, under the right circumstances, cause the nation to shatter in an instant.”” But can anyone say with certainty that politicians in Nigeria are behaving wisely

AVERTING DOOM
And whereas President Jonathan attempted to douse the tension at the PDP National Convention, when in a speech delivered by his deputy, Vice President Namadi Sambo, pontificating that the party could be torn apart by the 2015 succession battle, another attempt to draw the attention of Nigerians to the needless distraction that the matter was becoming penultimate Saturday left gaps in the statement from his office.

The statement had categorically stated:”What began as an irritating distraction some months ago, appears to have now assumed a life of its own, dominating political discourse in the country, with all kinds of mischief-makers and opportunists latching on to it, to heat up the polity unnecessarily.

The pointless, diversionary and very distractive hue and cry about the President’s alleged ambition to seek a second term in office is becoming increasingly disturbing by the day with headlines such as “JONATHAN’S 2015 AMBITION CAN BREAK UP NIGERIA” and “JONATHAN’S 2015 AMBITION FUELING INSECURITY,” now regular fare in our newspapers and on the internet.

“For the avoidance of any doubt whatsoever, President Jonathan wishes to reiterate that his primary concern and the focus of all his efforts now, just about a year into the four-year tenure for which he was elected in April 2011, is to deliver on his promise of positive national transformation.

“The President’s sole preoccupation as the nation moves towards the first anniversary of his administration on May 29, 2012 is to continue to  give effective and purposeful leadership that will steer Nigeria towards overcoming its immediate security and developmental challenges.  Nothing could be farther from President Jonathan’s mind at this point in time than the 2015 elections. The President has definitely not directed or authorized any individual or group to launch any campaign on his behalf.

“President Jonathan urges the political class and the Nigerian mass media, once again, to focus on the immediate priority of protecting, preserving and consolidating democratic governance in Nigeria, and giving the nation’s current crop of elected leaders at all levels the opportunity to deliver on their promises to the people without the distraction of an unending campaign for future elections”.

The statement was signed by his Special Adviser on Media, Dr. Reuben Abati. Even with the statement from  Jonathan’s office, it may appear as though a separate life is being incubated for 2015.
CONTINUES NEXT WEEK