By Ochereome Nnanna
ONCE it was public knowledge that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had a preferred candidate for National Chairman of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, I knew he was interested in the 2015 politics. Normally, every president in power in Nigeria would be interested even if he has exhausted his two terms. If he is not running again he will be putting someone of his own choosing as he vacates office.

In GEJ’s case, it is not officially clear if he thinks he is eligible to stand in 2015. He made a public undertaking to stand for only one term during the politics of 2010/2011. Many are going to hold him to his words. But will he be so honourable as to stick to those words? Or will the overwhelming allure of power make him throw honour overboard and settle for his constitutional right to a second term in office? Will he soon begin to sponsor support groups to demonstrate on television asking him to stand again? Or will he, having decided to stand by his word, start soon to search for a successor?

These are the questions he can now sit back to address his mind to, now that he has taken full control of the ruling Party after the national convention held in Abuja over the past weekend.

There was no pretension that GEJ wanted Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as the National Chairman. He needed to have his own man in that exalted chair whether he would run again in 2015 or sponsor someone else. He had to come out openly to show his involvement rather than leave it to second or third parties to arrange for him. He was not going to allow the complacency that led to the emergence of  Aminu Tambuwal as the Speaker of the House of Representatives (rather than his preferred South West legislator) to catch him unawares again. As the leader of the Party, part of his duties is to ensure that the power sharing formula is maintained. Otherwise, his own personal interests would be ultimately jeopardised.

This was going to be the case if the Atiku group were allowed by GEJ to either get a new national chairman for the party from outside the North East Zone or frustrate Tukur from Adamawa, his own state. Atiku knew that Bamanga’s aspiration was bad news for his presidential ambition in 2015. He knew the difficulty he would have in filing for presidential nomination in such a situation since the presidential candidate and the national chairman cannot come from the same state. Tukur’s emergence is a double blow to him because his structure will now have to contend with Tukur’s which will have the backing of the almighty Aso Villa.

Gradually, the President is beginning to outgrow the image of a political minnow. From a man who used to climb on the backs of others (deputy this, vice that) he has, within the space of 14 months, defeated political titans such as Atiku Abubakar, the consensus candidate of Malam Adamu Ciroma’s “North” to clinch the presidential ticket of the ruling Party. He went on to thrash General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, during the April 2011 presidential elections without needing to go through a second ballot.

Now that he has installed his loyalists in his party in readiness for the next round of elections in 2015, GEJ is now in a position to dictate who among the first term PDP governors will be favoured with second term tickets and those who will be replacing full-term/outgoing governors.

To a very large extent, the President now holds all the keys to the succession battles of 2015 and all the elections that will take place in between and shortly afterwards.

That is not to say all will be plain sailing for him in whatever he decides to do. The first key he secured was to enable him to administer the country and make life more abundant for Nigerians.

How far has he gone in doing this? Most Nigerians would say he is yet to even begin, nearly ten months after being sworn in. We are still waiting for the much trumpeted Transformational Agenda to start bringing in the goodies.

In choosing his ministers, GEJ went for many high quality technocrats as he was pressured to do. Such names as Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Finance), Professor Barth Nnaji (Power), and Dr Adesina Akinwunmi (Agriculture) and so on, do not seem to have made much difference.

If Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala goes back to the World Bank as its President she would be going back without any new major contribution to the improvement of the economy.

The security situation in the North is still out of control, with the Jos violence back on steam, while Boko Haram and its Al Qaeda sponsors are opening up more operational fronts in the North. Even the peace in the Niger Delta is now routinely disrupted with “MEND” making some isolated ugly comebacks apparently from nowhere.

The implication of perceived non-performance on the part of President Jonathan is very bleak. He may be easily able to overawe opposition from within the party (such as Atiku, Babangida and others who believe they can use the non-existent Northern power to force themselves on Nigerians).

Unless he is able to rapidly turn around the economy, provide jobs for the teeming youth, curb our food imports through massive agricultural investments, make electricity more available (rather than the excuses that Nnaji keeps coming up with) and make Nigerians generally happy with him, he stands the risk of leading his party to a woeful defeat in 2015 whether as a candidate or godfather.

GEJ cannot longer plead impotence. He may not be a general, an emperor or a Pharaoh, but right now, he has all the powers that would make any of them green with envy. Can he? Yes he can?