By Jude Njoku
An  environmentalist, Mr. Leslie Adogame has described the recent consistent rainfall predictions by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency NIMET as a very welcome development because rainfall is the key factor that determines yields and success of the other socio-economic activities.

Mr. Adogame who is the Executive Director, Sustainable Research and Action for Environmental Development SRADev Nigeria, told Vanguard Homes & Property described NIMET as one of the few agencies doing what exactly it was established to do – providing vital weather advisory and early warning tool for planners, decision-makers and operators of the various rainfall-sensitive socio-economic sectors as it enhances preparedness against climate risks and associated hazards.

“From my personal assessment, the Agency recent weather data set equipment is responsible for its recent efficient Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP), particularly the latest scientific information on weather for planning and decision-making in agriculture, water resources management, hydro-electric power generation, as well as other sectors of the national economy. This is what investing in good and nascent technology can do for a country.

Most important for me in the prediction is the fact that going by the predictions, Nigeria is expected to have high agricultural yields in the next planting season, but my worries are what have we gained from similar predictions in the past years?

Has governments done or what strategies are in place to improve socio-economic sectors such as agriculture, water resources, energy, transportation, construction, infrastructural development based on the positive prediction?. He asked.

Mr Adogame who wondered what decision makers are using the information to do, had a lot of posers for both the government, NIMET and NGOs. “Do they ever mainstream this information into decision making and planning process for the benefit of the poor and vulnerable people.

The answer is obviously no, and this is the crux of the matter. This has made the predictions very unpopular so far. Sadly also, local change agents like NGOs are not been carried along to create awareness at the grass root level. To what extent will the NIMET press conference reach the local communities?

How has the message been translated to the grass root? Considering that more than 70% of the farming populations are based in the rural areas. How are local governments taking the message to their people?” These, according to him, are critical follow up strategies which nobody is giving any thoughts to.

“It is not just enough to generate large volume of data, whereas in most cases in Nigeria, the data never gets communicated to the grassroot people or used for decision making purpose,” he said..

Beyond the agricultural considerations, the SRADev Nigeria executive director said are the issues bordering health and environmental particularly as it concerns the coastal communities. Said he: “State governments never take advantage of the privileged weather information for planning.

There will certainly be an increase in air-borne diseases due to the harmattan dust haze early in the year and also the increase in malaria parasite and so on. How prepared are we to the incidents of health problem associated with these phenomena.

Already, our coastal communities are being ravaged by flooding and erosion and yet there are no pro-poor environmental contingency preparedness plans to cushion these problems that I know of”.

“I do not totally agree that the 2012 good rain predictions are a totally good omen or what some people call “2012 weather charity” for Nigeria. Unfortunately, we never really make critical analysis of national issues. Because a good national audit of the environmental “cost and benefit analysis” would indicate that the impact inherent afterall to people and environment far out weighs the intended agricultural boost.

Rather the Federal Government in response to this good tidies through relevant key ministries of Agriculture, Environment, Water Resources, Science and Technology and Power as well as States and Local governments should strike a balance cutting across food security, to necessary awareness raising to emergency preparedness to casualties from climate hazards already with us here in Nigeria,” he concluded.