GLOBAL export gains can run up to $359 billion in the long term if the Doha deal is implemented by 2013, but gains for the Southeast Asian bloc are muted relative to richer Western economies, a study funded by the European Commission (EC) on Trade has said.

Current provisions of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) should spread evenly the benefits of enhancing trade facilitation — through simpler customs procedures and more efficient transport — and freer trade in goods and services among developed and developing regions, based on a research published on Monday by Paris-based Centre for International Prospective Studies, CIPS.

The findings go against the zero-sum relationships expected by countries holding back the decade-old multilateral trade package because of endless disagreements over tariff cuts on certain industrial goods. More important than the hotly debated chapter on non-agricultural market access (NAMA), the deal can spur trade by pushing for better trade facilitation regimes among members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

“The deal on the table is well balanced. In terms of economic gains all regions — developing, emerging and developed countries — would profit from an ambitious Doha deal,” said Yvan Decreux and Lionel Fontagne, authors of the commissioned study entitled: “Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of DDA II.”

“The removal of red tape in trade, so-called trade facilitation …, is of major importance for a successful Doha Development deal. Almost half of the global gains ($100 billion in world exports) are to be reaped from this part of the agreement.

In addition, the allocation of gains becomes more favourable to developing countries when trade facilitation is included,” they added.

The results are based on a simulation of the global economy using 2004 (baseline year) data from the Global Trade Analysis Project and Market Access Map, together with six-year statistical trends to 2010 remodelled into the simulation.

The Southeast Asian region is seen to grow its agricultural and industrial exports to $3.48 billion and $25.95 billion in 2025 from the baseline year (2004) at constant dollars and relative to the later year’s economic value.

But the region’s growth pales in comparison to that of the European Union with exports rising to $9.78 billion and $52.98 billion for agriculture and industrial goods, respectively, over the 21-year period.

Industrial expansion for the Western bloc is expected to be double the value of its Asian counterpart, while agricultural growth will be over 2.8 times faster.

Most worryingly, services exports for Southeast Asia might shrink by $3.48 billion in 2025 from 2004 with the passage of the full Doha deal with the EU and the US gaining $15.41 billion and $8.35 billion, respectively.