By Ochereome Nnanna
IT was a throwback to the Olusegun Obasanjo days as President of Nigeria and “life leader” of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. That was when the strategy of working a political process to suit the declared fancies of the leader or few oligarchs of the party was perfected.

I am not saying the strategy was invented during Obasanjo’s time. That is far from the truth. If you study the methods by which many political leaders and candidates materialised in the past (examples, the emergence of Alhaji Ahmadu Bello as the leader of the Northern People’s Congress, NPC, on the impetus of the colonial masters and the emirs to take over a political party formed by Dr RAB Dikko, Aminu Kano and Abubakar Imam; and, the emergence of Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe as the presidential candidate of the defunct Nigerian Peoples Party, NPP, in 1979, and so on), you will conclude correctly that the notion of “internal party democracy” in Nigeria is more of theory than practice.

The way the PDP treated the candidatures of Governor Timipre Sylva, Ben Murray Bruce, Timi Alaibe and Godknows Igali for the gubernatorial ticket was to meet two specific purposes: (a) to keep out those that President Goodluck Jonathan did not want to become the governor of Bayelsa State from picking up the prized ticket of the PDP; and (b) to ensure that the President’s preferred choice, Henry Dickson Seriake, was returned and handed the ticket.

Once the decision was made, stories (both true and made-up) were told to justify it: Sylva committed “treason” when he threatened to kill the President and his family; Alaibe is a fresh returnee to the Party after bidding to run on the platform of Labour Party in April 2011 (as though former Vice President Atiku did not do the same and yet was allowed to vie against Jonathan for the PDP presidential ticket); Bruce bears dual citizenship (and so do many current office holders, including Governor Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State) and Igali is still an employee of the Federal Government (so was Babangida Aliyu now in his second term as Governor of Niger State when Obasanjo imposed him in 2006). When a president does not want something done, any story to justify his action will do.

Only on few occasions have the true wishes of the generality of party members across the board been allowed to determine the choice a governorship or presidential candidate. One good example of such was the nomination of Chief Moshood Abiola as the presidential candidate of the defunct Social Democratic Party, SDP, in Jos in April 1993. In Nigeria, party primaries for nomination of candidates are not about the choice of members of the party. It is more about the preferred choice of the party leader and his close lieutenant and local agents.

So, as far as the PDP governorship candidate for the Bayelsa poll coming up next year is concerned, President Jonathan has spoken.

Right now, only Governor Sylva is still grappling with PDP over his sidelining. Alaibe and Igali kept mute. Bruce quit protesting it was a “coronation” (which it was). It is easier for the trio to take it lying down. For Sylva, the stakes are much higher. If, three months down the line he is no longer governor, anything can happen. He is likely to end in the net of the agencies of state security for alleged crimes ranging from “treason” to “graft”. It could be the second time a Bayelsa governor left the Creek House and went straight to jail. Unlike the man who set the record, former Ijaw “Governor General”, DSP Alamieyeseigha, Sylva may not have the benefit of socio-political and economic rehabilitation, which Alamieyeseigha now enjoys abundantly since his former Deputy Governor whom he mentored, GEJ, is now President of Nigeria!

In the light of these, Sylva faces four broad options. Number one, he may choose to stay in the party and fight his case in the law courts to compel PDP to rerun the primaries with him as a candidate. This will not take him far, if his experience of being detained within the confines of the Government House while the ward congresses went on was anything to go by. He has been totally incapacitated in the party, and any further struggle on his part will mire him deeper in alleged “anti-party activities”. He is no longer welcome in the party.

Number two: Throw in the towel, cooperate with the party’s choice, Seriake, and even campaign for him, as a “good party man”. It will be a bitter pill to swallow. The moment he does so, all his supporters (including members of his cabinet) will jump ship to Seriake’s side. His power as governor will wane long before the end. He will still not be welcome around the President, and that means internal isolation. But he could get a softer landing as a result.

Number three: Go to another party to contest. This is a very tempting option, one he will explore if he is in the mood to fight to the end. But it will be difficult to ask Bayelsa voters to vote against President Jonathan’s choice. When will the state have another son as president? That is the sentiment that will be difficult for Sylva to grapple with. But at least, it will give him an opportunity to test his popularity.

Number four: Insist on his earlier provisional ticket granted by the party. It will be up to the court to decide whether the law allows it to decide internal party issues for political parties. Many court verdicts have gone against this. But you never know: The courts could be sympathetic to the underdog, as they were to Chibuike Amaechi. But with Justice Ayo Salami out of the Court of Appeal and pro-PDP conservatives now fully in charge of the top echelons of the Judiciary, it may be too thin a thread of hope to hang on to.

Any way he turns, Sylva’s position is not tenable. If he had known, he should not have gone to court to seek the elongation of his first term. He should have emulated the smart choice of Rivers State Governor, Amaechi, who opted to run with the rest of the PDP gubernatorial herd in April this year. I dare say, if Amaechi had won for himself a similar extension, he probably would be in soup like Sylva over his open spat with the President’s wife, Dame Patience Jonathan.

Let this be a lesson. Any governor whose re-election falls outside the national calendar had better watch it. For Amaechi, it was a lucky escape. But for Sylva, it isn’t.