*Why CPC May Not Outlast Buhari
*What Jonathan Can Do To Save PDP
*How ACN Can Re-invent For Future Greatness
*The Return Of Old Politics

The elections may be over but the politics of 2015 presidential election would shape the new zoning formula in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP – to an extent. In fact, the results from the elections last month have re-created the same politics of old in a new form.  However, what would create for possible high combustion is the contestation that would ensue between the North and the South East zone over who succeeds President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.  This would create its own problem for the PDP. And in the wake of this, there would be a possible road show by the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, with a view to becoming more national political parties.

By Jide Ajani, Editor, Northern Operations

On the night of Tuesday, April 12, 2011, when the negotiating teams of  the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, were locked in a room on Agadez Street, in the Wuse II District area of Abuja, members of one negotiating team knew the engagement was going nowhere.

Fresh facts which emerged after the botched alliance talks between both parties suggest that the ACN was never really interested in any alliance with the CPC, just as the CPC’s main objective for scampering back to the negotiation table was to use the ACN as a springboard.

One of the governors at the meeting told Sunday Vanguard that “the prospect for the alliance as contextualized by the media was a lie from the pit of hell”.

According to the state governor, “the conditions for an alliance are very simple and straight forward under any circumstance.  It is about weighing the possibilities in any prospect and building on  them.  That is the real essence of an alliance in the first place.

“With what the AC N has been able to prove and demonstrate in the South-West geo-political zone and in some other parts of the country, the essential purpose, which is to provide good governance for our people, can not only be achieved through the office of the President and Commander-in-Chief as it has been manifest in the past 12 years.

Therefore, for us in the ACN, the need to clinch the office of the President is not a do-or-die affair!

“In addition, when you place the successes recorded during the legislative elections side by side, you discover that brand AC N’s prospects are brighter and better.

“Be that as it may, this idea of having to wait endlessly all in the name of an alliance simply became frustrating”, the governor concluded.

Therefore, that the AC N has swept the polls in the South-West geo-political zone is no more than a throw back to the days of Action Group, Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, and the Social democratic Party, SDP, in the First, Second and the still born Third Republics, respectively,

What The Results Portend

With the results of all the elections, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, dominance remains intact – as far as the governorship sphere is concerned.  However, the overbearing numerical strength the party has in the National Assembly again been whittled by the strong showing of the ACN in the South-West, along with pockets of seats won by the CPC, Labour Party, LP, as well as the All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP.

But the outlook is not as bright as Nigerians think.

Unless the successes recorded at the polls this year are matched by good sense, good governance and a general submission to the democratic process at all levels, the menu list Nigerians may be served in 2015 may be a potpourri of the good, the bad and the ugly.

Can CPC Outlast Buhari?
In the North, for instance, the declaration by General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) that this was his last pursuit  for  the office of the president would have devastating effects on the political party that he midwifed – the CPC.
The reason is closer home.  CPC’s showing during the presidential election  could not be transferred to the other elections which did not have General Buhari as a candidate.

What this means, in essence, is that whereas the CPC took the nation by storm during the presidential election – performing dismally during the state and national legislative and governorship elections – there are no guarantees that the party would outlast  Buhari.  If in an election that the party participated in, only the presidential election which involved Buhari, saw the party scoring substantial votes, what would happen when Buhari steps aside from full-time politics?

That in itself creates another problem in the North where the party has shown that it can make waves.
What actually made the party suffer was its entanglement in a number of litigations over candidates for offices.  In Katsina and Kano, specifically, the CPC leadership allowed the party to go to the dogs, thereby getting it enmeshed in contestations that left sour tastes in the mouth afterwards; which is why the party could as well become a viable alternative to the PDP and ANPP in the North!

How Jonathan Can Save PDP
For President Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP, the zoning arrangement in the party would face a stiff test in 2015. The President has promised to serve only one term in office.

Any move on his part by 2015 to seek to re-contest would come with its own complexities and complications; not necessarily because he is not qualified to do so, but because it would present him as an individual who can not be trusted.

Arising from such a scenario would be the choice that would be open to the South-East geo-political zone on whether or not the PDP would remain a viable vehicle for the zones presidential aspiration.  Having fully back out of the 2011 presidential race on account of its prospective turn in 2015, the zone may have shot itself in the foot.
The reason is because the contestation for the 2015 presidential election would not be a mere mandibular endeavour.  It would require political savvy.

The figures released for the elections so far show that the South-East has a lesser numerical might than the North-West, North-Central or North-East.  Senate President David Mark, should he return to office, would have become a potent force from the North-Central.  Sullivan Chime of Enugu State and Theodore Orji of Abia States would make a push as South Easterners compete to seek the office, as well as Ike Ekweremmadu, should he retain his slot as Deputy Senate President.

There may yet be other politicians from each of the zones in the North and the South east.
And power, having resided in the South from 2010 to 2015, any of the zones in the North would have a strong case to want to seek that office – at least, in the event that  Jonathan refuses to seek re-election. General  Ibrahim Babangida has already said he is no longer a politician but wishes to be seen and addressed as a statesman – he would have a role to play when that time comes, just as some of the governors in the North would feel they are ripe for the position. That is where Mr. President’s commitment to democratic ethos would be tested.

The prime issue that would become of concern at that stage would be whether the leaders of PDP would cause another Enlarged Caucus Meeting to hold, where the issue of zoning would be agreed upon again and votes would be taken.  But the futility of such a meeting resonates in the earlier one held on December 22, 2002, where it was equally agreed that the South would have the presidency for eight years and then power would shift to the North for another eight years.  That agreement was breached by the same PDP leaders including, of course, then President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Therefore, as President Jonathan continues nation-building, he would need one eye on the affairs of his party especially in the area of how a successor emerges.

Should that challenge become to onerous for him to properly handle, his party may suffer huge discounts.
One of the issues he would have to deal with is which of the zones would produce his successor?
Should it be by arrangement or consensus?

Should all those interested go to the field and contest the party’s primaries?
How would he play his hands in the contest?

Would he even refuse to seek re-election in the face of another chorus that he should?
What would be the role of the First Lady in this build up, since she has affinity to the South-East zone via Abia State?

Why AC N Should Become More National

In all of this, the AC N would remain a very beautiful bride.

Its leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would have a say in who becomes President in 2015.
Just as Buhari scampered back to the negotiation table barely 72 hours to last month’s presidential election and President Jonathan benefiting from the seeming indifference of AC N leaders during the election Tinubu’s role would be manifest.

Firstly, however, the party would need to disembark from its posturing as a sectional, Yoruba political party to one that is more national in outlook.

The party would also, through Tinubu, begin to allow the votes of its supporters to count at the primaries – this would go a long way in building confidence and help to create an even larger support base for it.

In the event that the party insists on imposing candidates, it may discover to its chagrin that the people of the South -West are not particularly long-suffering.

Therefore, the challenge before Tinubu is one of introspection with a view to allowing for free, fair and credible primaries within the party.  That way, the fears its leaders had during the  National Assembly elections of possibly losing seats would not be there once primaries are conducted freely and fairly.  With its victory in Anambra Central where Dr. Chris Ngige won, the party can find ways of building bridges across with a view to consolidating its support base.