By Emmanuel Aziken, Political Editor
THE enthusiasm that followed the just concluded voters’ registration exercise is generally assumed to reflect the eagerness of many Nigerians to have a say in who governs them. Indeed, as the April polls approach there is an increasing determination by many Nigerians to make their votes count in the elections.

Such determination has been helped by the enthronement of some popular regimes in the country one of which is that led by the one-time labour leader, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole with his campaign of “One Man One Vote.”

While the last voters registration exercise in 2006 conducted by the Maurice Iwu led Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC was characterized by general apathy, Nigerians from across all divides seem to have woken up from slumber. Many Nigerians are indeed not prepared to stomach the massive rigging of the voters’ roll as it was done in 2006 when names of some dead Nigerians notably, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti among others were listed in that register.

The first sign of that was the outpouring of eligible voters that thronged the 120,000 polling units during the recently concluded registration exercise.

In the first few days of the exercise, sights of eligible voters on long queues bidding to enroll themselves on the voters’ register moved many to demand for an extension of the two-week exercise. Though the crowd eventually petered out as the commission got its acts in place, the registration exercise was eventually extended for a week across the country and two day extra in some few sections of the country that faced serious hurdles at the commencement of the exercise.

At the end of the listing, an estimated 65.2 million potential voters were recorded, according to the chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega.

The figure is about five million more than the total number of voters who “registered” during the widely discredited registration exercise of 2006 which preceded the equally scandalous election.

A study of the tentative number of voters registered in the separate zones could well address the mind of Nigerians as to the shape of the returns by the separate zones during the presidential elections and other contests.

NORTHWEST 18 million voters

The Northwest geopolitical zone topped the list of registered voters with 18 million voters followed by the Southwest with 15 million and then jointly by the South-South, Northeast and North Central zones with eight million voters each.  The Southeast trailed the pack with seven million voters.

The tentative figures was bound to bring some measure of relief to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and Ibrahim Shekarau, the presidential candidates of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC and All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP respectively who are from the voters- rich region.

They have to their advantage easy access to the 18 million voters of the Northwest geopolitical zone. Buhari is from Katsina while Shekarau is the outgoing Governor of Kano State.

The advantage of the duo is, however, neutralized by the prevailing influence of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in the region. The PDP controls all but one of the seven states in the zone. The PDP Governors would be aiming to return President Goodluck Jonathan in the knowledge that a victory for Buhari in the presidential election could equally lead to a momentum that would derail their own re_election prospects. Remarkably all the incumbent Governors in the zone with the notable exception of Shekarau are contesting for a second term.

SOUTH-SOUTH 8 million voters

President Jonathan is from the South-South region which returned eight million voters.

Remarkably, Jonathan has to contend the votes of his home base with some other presidential candidates including Dele Momodu, Pat Utomi and Chris Okotie, the presidential candidates of the National Conscience Party, NCP, the Social Democratic Mega Party, SDMP and the Fresh Democratic Party, FDP respectively.

Though Momodu in an interview with Vanguard claimed that Jonathan was not the best material from the South-South, there is no doubt that for the regional king-makers that the President remains the most viable political product.

The regional king-makers and notably Governors would then be aiming to mobilize the totality of the votes for the President. Remarkably, that aspiration would be helped by the fact that all the Governors of the region are PDP and are first term governors with the notable exception of Edo, which belongs to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

NORTHEAST 8 million votes

Mallam Nuhu Ribadu who is from the Northeast has the advantage of being the only major presidential candidate from his Northeast geopolitical zone. He also has the advantage of the support of the South-West geopolitical zone where his political party, the ACN reigns almost supreme.

On the surface, he has to his advantage the combined 23 million voters of the Northeast and Southwest.

However, Ribadu’s advantages are blighted by his lack of political organization even in his Northeast zone. His limitations are further defined by his seeming incapacity to pick a heavy weight political mobiliser. Dr Chris Ngige who would have helped with mobilizing the Southeast vote and the votes of Ndigbo in the Diaspora has seemingly opted for the Senate.

Remarkably, no one of the presidential candidates can assume to have all or even a majority of the votes in his state in his kitty. As it is, every vote and every state is in play and would have to be contended for until election day.

The South-West, North-Central and South-East remarkably have no major presidential contenders leaving the bulk of their votes in play for the major contenders from the outside zones.

Of the three zones above, the South-West with 15 million votes is believed to have a stronger sense of political unity which is now evolving around the ACN and its leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu’s capacity to influence the majority of the votes in the region may have turned him into a beautiful bride as seen in the continuing determination of Buhari not to antagonize the Tinubu machine.

But how Buhari in the first place missed the golden opportunity of forging an alliance with Tinubu’s ACN is a stupefying act of political indiscretion.

With the 18 million votes of the North-West and the 15 million votes of the South-West, the two zones form about half of the entire 65 million votes expected from the election in April. It would as such not be surprising that the major presidential gladiators would be putting much focus on the two zones.