By Ochereome Nnanna
BASED on our concluding statement in last edition of this topic that the South East has the highest quota of outwardly migrant population, the South West being the biggest destination, the question before us is: why? The answer is that Igbo people were forced into this migratory sociology due to paucity of land space which is largely tucked away inland.

Secondly, core Igbo land was the theatre of the Nigerian civil war during which it lost nearly everything, unlike the North and West whose pace of development continued unhindered since independence. All the geopolitical and historical disadvantages seem stacked against the Igbo, which appears to have shaped their total behavioural patterns.

This is unlike their majority peers, the “Hausa-Fulani” and Yoruba. The former have almost limitless landmass and a history and culture that give them a sense of belonging beyond Nigeria’s geographical borders. The Yoruba, on the other hand, are comfortably situated within a sizeable land space that ends in coastal terrain which supports deep seaports.

This, obviously, helped the colonial masters to decide in favour of Lagos when the debate as to where to site the Nigeria capital was between Lagos and Calabar.

Having chosen Lagos, the nation’s capital had to be favoured with the necessary infrastructural facilities. This made this part of Nigeria the destination of choice for those looking for economic opportunities. Even though Lagos is now a state just like any other consequent upon the development of Abuja as the new Federal Capital Territory, it continues to attract large populations of migrants such that it was able finally to overtake Kano in the last registration exercise.

It is speculated that, perhaps as much as a third of the Lagos (and up to a fifth of the total South West) population might be Igbo migrants.

Based on the large population of registered voters in the North West and South West, a newspaper recently speculated that the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Major General Muhammadu Buhari(rtd), was targeting the combined 33 million votes to emerge president and thus his choice of Pastor Tunde Bakare as his running mate.

As much as this is attractive for political mathematics, I daresay that if Buhari counts on it he is guaranteed to lose. Many residents of large cities in these zones (especially Lagos, Kano and Kaduna) are not indigenous to these zones and may not follow any ethnic voting trend of the indigenes. This alone takes away a large chunk out of the 33 million votes.

Secondly and more importantly, I do not see the ethnic or regional factor as the decider for the impending voting patters. Igbos and Yorubas do not have serious presidential candidates. They don’t also have any serious vice presidential candidates that will persuade them to vote primordially.

I do not think Pastor Bakare will draw many Yoruba votes for the ticket he shares with Buhari. Yorubas are likely to split their votes between the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), with a larger chunk going to the former. Since All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), ACN and CPC do not have reasonable following among South-Easterners, the vast majority of Igbo votes will be reserved for PDP’s President Goodluck Jonathan. John Oyegun as the presidential running mate of the ANPP will not be able to split the majority of votes from the South-South with Jonathan.

It is only in the three zones of the North that there will likely be some excitement. This is because the North and South-South are the only zones with serious contenders for president. I am still at sea as to where Malam Nuhu Ribadu as presidential candidate of the ACN and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau of the ANPP will get the votes to win the presidential election.

Most eyes will be on Buhari and Jonathan in the North. If Buhari should gamble based on ethno-regional calculations (as he appears to be doing) he will yet again meet his electoral waterloo. There is nothing in the critical indices that point to the victory of any of the presidential candidates based on ethno-regional advantages. Perhaps at the end of the oncoming elections, political strategists will realise that Nigeria has moved on from its inglorious past when religion and regionalism decided the voting pattern.

In spite of the above-described hidden demographic peculiarities of the just concluded voter registration exercise, it is a pity that when the race has been lost and won, power sharing will still likely favour the cold figures on paper.

Unless Igbo political leaders wake up and sensitise their colleagues to the hidden Igbo votes in other geopolitical regions, power sharing will likely again favour a South-South (especially Ijaw)-North West (especially Fulani and Hausa)-South West configuration. The Igbo will be treated as the South East number of registered voters suggests. And if care is not taken, it will also affect future decisions on the zoning of the presidency.

Yes, zoning is still an important factor, but unless equity and justice prevail, the zones with the smaller numbers will easily lose their share to the zones with bigger ones. Under normal circumstances, the presidency should have been zoned to the North East in 2007, since it produced the Vice President in 1999. But it lost to the North West because of bigger figures and former President Obasanjo’s own selfish motives.

Today, North East has Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives as its highest political officer. Already, the North West has again been given the post of Vice President, thus theoretically positioning it for President whenever it is returned to the North.

Since Nigerian policy makers have repeatedly rejected the Igbo campaign for tribe and state of origin to be part of our registration processes to determine the actual sizes of the ethnic nationalities, Nigeria owes the South East its long overdue additional state to square up with the rest.