The latest news in the presidential race is the constitution of a committee of 17 “wise men” to produce one consensus candidate of the North from the four aspirants – Atiku Abubakar, General Ibrahim Babagida, General Aliyu Gusau, Governor Saraki, to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan.

This is not a new: The Arewa Consultative Forum, the Northern Union, and other Northern elders, have been trying to do the same thing for some time. But their efforts have failed, for the same reason that the latest effort might also fail: the egoistic intransigence of the generals–Babangida and Gusau.

After making misleading statements in the past about his preparedness to step down for someone else, General Babangida has now categorically said he will not step down for any one.

Gusau also has been making conflicting statements. He says he is in the race to win, and therefore will run straight to the tape; but also now says he is willing to step down.

These statements are good and fine, as long as it is Atiku who is expected to step down, not the generals. The problem for them is that Atiku is also in the race to win and has set a clear course that should, all things being equal, take him to the prize.

The generals may be masters of military strategy, but when it comes to politics and political strategy they have a lot to learn from Atiku. He is the master in this field. It is what he does best. Saraki is in the same frame of mind as the generals.

Are these negotiating positions? I doubt that they are. Atiku is the only one who has said that he will abide by the decision of the “wise men”. He might regret that.

The consensus issue has become a game of wits: who will blink first? Who will back down?

The truth is that if there were going to be a stepping down, it would have happened a long time ago. Now, it is too late: all the aspirants are going on with their campaigns or full steam.

It will take a miracle to make consensus work. The Northern elders, after an exhaustive exercise, had decided on Atiku as the consensus candidate based on the zoning policy. But the others had flatly rejected that choice of the elders.

General Gusau is from the North West, and that zone has produced five presidents and heads of state – Murtala Muhammed, Shehu Shagari, Muhammadu Buhari, Sani Abacha, and Umaru Yar’Adua.

General Babangida and Saraki are from the North Central, and the zone has produced three presidents and heads of state – General Yakubu Gowan, General Babangida, and General Abdulsalami Abubakar.

Atiku Abubakar is from the North East, and the zone has not produced any president or head of state. It produced the Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa, and Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Therefore, taking all these into account the Northern leaders decided that the North East should now produce the next President. The choice fell on Atiku Abubakar. But as we have seen, the others have rejected the decision of the elders.

Given this scenario, how is the new committee of 17 wise men to proceed in the new attempt to produce the consensus candidate of the North? All four aspirants have sent two representatives each into the committee.

It is a gratuitous insult even to include Atiku, a dogged fighter for democracy, among the group of military autocrats and dictators masquerading as democrats, and for the abominable impression to be created that these enemies of democracy might in fact be preferred over Atiku in any selection exercise.

The generals – including Muhammadu Buhari, etc, who overthrew elected governments and replaced them with repressive and murderous regimes, and fought tooth and nail to prevent the re-introduction of democracy; and plundered the country, have now transformed, like chameleon, into “democrats”.

But leopards never change colour, as we painfully found out with General Olusegun Obasanjo.

The generals in 1967 started and presided over the civil war in which more than a million Nigerians, including children, lost their lives. They staged coups and counter-coups which consumed thousands of lives.

General Babangida annulled the June 12 presidential election, and thousands, including Abiola, died in the ensuring violence. They presided over a brutal regime which targeted politicians to destroy them.

But now, taking advantaging of the disease of collective amnesia afflicting Nigerians, the same generals have not only hijacked the democratic space, but are also trying to convince Nigerians that all that happened never happened. It was all a dream.

June 12 was a dream. Abiola was a dream, Shehu Yar’Adua’s death in Abakaliki prison in suspicious circumstances was a dream. Dele Giwa was a dream, Okigbo report never happened, the civil war was a dream.

Atiku Abubakar fought these generals, including Abacha and Olusegun Obasanjo, all through his political career. Abacha ordered a commando attack on his residence in Kaduna, where they killed four policemen. God saved Atiku’s life, and his family.

Atiku survived General Obasanjo’s ferocious attack dogs – Nuhu Ribadu (who also now wants to be president), El-Rufai, Femi Fani-Kayode, Bayo Ojo.  But now we are told that the same generals are the stars of Nigerian democracy. They have been re-branded.

These Nigerian leopards have changed colour. The dictators of yesterday are today’s champions of democracy. They must think we are fools.

General Babangida, having been forced to step aside, is ready to step back into the presidential villa, to continue where he left off 17 years ago. He will re-enact the same “development” policies, he says. That is bad news for Nigeria.

Gusau, who was his security chief, now wants the top job himself. Most people don’t believe him. They say Gusau is only a spoiler, working with and for his old boss in a secret deal. He has denied it.

The greatest affront however, is that they are trying to force Atiku Abubakar, the only true democrat in the group, indeed the greatest fighter for and defender of democracy in modern day Nigeria, to surrender to them in this presidential race.

Why should we even talk about the political toddler, Governor Saraki? The rich spoilt kid who ran his father’s bank, Societe Generale, into bankruptcy, with billions lost to shareholders.

Nevertheless, in the bizarre situation of Nigeria, he was allowed to become the governor of Kwara State. He has left the state not better than he met it, but is walking away personally richer than he went in. He wants to spend the loot in a presidential bid. But if riches were horses, everyone would ride on them.

Atiku has said he is the only one capable of defeating Goodluck Jonathan. Millions of Nigerians also think so. Therefore the search for a consensus candidate will be an exercise in futility if it does not produce Atiku Abubakar.

It is actually a straight fight between Atiku and Babangida. The question is: Between the two, who would command the greatest votes? Would Nigerians trust Babangida?
Gusau and Saraki have very little electoral value. At best they are spoilers.

They probably will win local government or state election; but no more. Ambition should be made of sterner stuff, not on an exaggerated sense of self importance.

Mr. Razaq Ibrahim, a commentator on national issues, writes from Lagos.