By Clifford Ndujihe
Things are gradually picking up for the next general election. Some aspirants are stepping up preparations for the contest.

For the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC led by Prof. Attahiru Jega, the polls offer some fresh challenges in addition to compiling a fresh voters’ list especially with the new Amendment to the 1999 Constitution, which provides that presidential and governorship elections should be held 120 to 150 days to the expiration of the tenures of the incumbents.

Given the amendment and litigation that characterised past polls, interesting scenarios will play out in the forthcoming general polls. For a start, there will be no governorship polls in nine of the 36 states  of the country.

For the first time in the history of electioneering in Nigeria, uniformity in the conduct of elections across the country will be set aside especially for the governorship polls on account of the Supreme Court ruling that tenure of governors should start from when they were sworn-in to office.

Massive irregularities that characterised the 2003 (Anambra State) and 2007 elections compelled the courts to nullify nine governorship elections. Opposing candidates were handed the governorship seats outright in Anambra, Edo, Ondo  and Rivers states. Re-run polls were ordered in five others. Consequently, the nine governors were sworn-in on dates different from May 29, 2007 when their colleagues in 27 states assumed power.

The ‘missing’ states
States where the 2011 governorship elections will not hold are Adamawa, Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Rivers and Sokoto.

In Anambra, the Supreme Court ruled that the INEC ought not to have conducted the 2007 governorship polls won by Mr. Andy Uba of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP because Governor Peter Obi of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA had not completed his tenure. Obi contested for the position in 2003 but the INEC returned PDP’s Chris Ngige as the winner.

He challenged the decision and won in 2006, three years after, and was sworn-in as governor.  Less than two years into his tenure, the 2007 elections were held. He refused to contest but his party nominated his deputy, Mrs Virgy Etiaba as its flagbearer. Uba won the election and was sworn-in and he governed for  10 days. Obi returned to the courts, won and reclaimed his mandate from the jugular of the PDP.

Obi was first sworn-in on March 17, 2006. He won a re-election on February 6, 2010 and so will remain in office until 2014 unless the courts say otherwise.

In Rivers, Chief Rotimi Amaechi won the PDP primaries but his party, few weeks to the April 14, 2007 electoral contest, dropped him as the flagbearer because of alleged fraud and fielded Celestine Omehia. The PDP won the polls and Omehia was handed the mandate. But Amaechi went to court and got a verdict. He was sworn-in on October 26, 2007, four months later. Consequently, the next gubernatorial elections in Rivers will hold in May 2011.

In Adamawa, Bayelsa, Ekiti, Kogi and Sokoto states, the governors won the re-run elections ordered by the Court of Appeal and took a fresh oath of office.

The non-PDP states
At the end of the 2007 elections, the ruling party at the centre – the PDP won in 28 states leaving eight states for the opposition parties. The All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP) had five (Bauchi, Zamfara, Kano, Borno and Yobe); the Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA won two  (Imo and Abia) while the Action Congress, AC cornered one (Lagos).

After the battle in the law courts and series of defections, the PDP is still retaining its 28 states following some losses and gains here and there. It lost Edo (AC/Labour Party), Anambra (APGA) and Ondo (Labour Party) to the opposition and gained Zamfara, Bauchi and Imo through defections. As it were, states in the hands of opposition parties now are Anambra, Abia, Edo, Ondo, Borno, Yobe, Kano and Lagos.

Controversies surrounding previous polls, the tenure of the incumbent governors and zoning/rotational arrangements are among factors that might shape the outcome of the next elections in these states.

The new election dates across the states

S/N     State    Gov’s tenure    Swearing in Date    Next Election

1.    Abia    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
2.    Adamawa    First    May 2, 2008    Jan 2012 ==
3.    Akwa Ibom    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
4.    Anambra    Second    Mar 17, 2010    Nov 2013 == *
5.    Bauchi    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
6.    Bayelsa     First    May 27, 2008    Jan 2012 ==
7.    Benue    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
8.    Borno    Second    May 29, 2003    Jan 2011**
9.    Cross River    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
10.    Delta    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
11.    Ebonyi    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
12.    Edo    First    Nov 12, 2008    July 2012 ==
13.    Ekiti    First    May  8, 2009    Jan 2013 ==
14.    Enugu    First    May 29, 2007    Jan2011
15.    Gombe    Second    May 29, 2003    Jan 2011**        16.    Imo     First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
17.    Jigawa    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
18.    Kaduna    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
19.    Kano    Second    May 29, 2003    Jan 2011**
20.    Katsina    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
21.    Kebbi    First    May 29, 2007    Jan2011
22.    Kogi    Second    Mar 31 2008    Nov 2011**==
23.    Kwara    Second    May 29,2003    Jan 2011**
24.    Lagos    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
25.    Nasarawa    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
26.    Niger    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
27.    Ogun    Second    May 29, 2003    Jan 2011**
28.    Ondo    First    Feb 24, 2009    Oct 2012 ==
29.    Osun    Second    May 29, 2003    Jan 2011
30.    Oyo    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
31.    Plateau    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
32.    Rivers    First    Oct 26, 2007    May 2011 ==        33.    Sokoto    First    May 26, 2008    Jan 2012 ==        34.    Taraba    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
35.    Yobe    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011
36.    Zamfara    First    May 29, 2007    Jan 2011

Legend:
* states with pending election petitions
*states where elections will not hold in Jan 2011
*States with second term governors