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2009 rainfall prediction was 70 per cent correct – NIMET

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has said that the evaluation of the 2009 rainfall pattern showed that predicted dates tallied with actual dates in more than 70 per cent of cases.

Mr Joseph Alozie, the Technical Assistant to the NIMET Director-General, who disclosed this while speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja, said that in 30 per cent of the cases, the rains came later than predicted dates of onset.

The areas affected included Borno, Sokoto, Niger, Ondo, Enugu and Cross River States.

He explained that scientifically, predictions about the weather could be 100 per cent correct due to natural causes, adding: “it is like man proposes God disposes.”

However, he said that “there was good skill in the prediction in all other parts of the country.”

NAN recalls that the agency had in February released the annual rainfall prediction for 2009, which comprised information about the onset, cessation and length of the rainy season.

Also contained in the forecast was the total amount of rainfall expected as well as advisory on the socio-economic implications of the predictions for all parts of the country.

According to the predictions, most parts of the country were expected to have the onset of the rains before June 30, 2009.

“By this date, it was possible to evaluate the onset dates, using daily rainfall and temperature data measured from all 54 NIMET stations in the country,’’ Alozie said.

He stated that updates on the evaluation of other components of the 2009 annual rainfall prediction would be released in due course.


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