The rumour mill has continued to churn over the conspicuous absence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from several high-profile commissioning ceremonies during his recent visit to Lagos. What should ordinarily have been a triumphant return to his political base, the very platform that launched him to national power, has instead opened the floodgates of speculation.

 Observers have offered varying explanations: physical exhaustion, competing engagements, or even emotional strain from the burdens of governing a complex nation like Nigeria. Yet, beneath these surface narratives lies a deeper and more consequential reality. This Lagos visit is not just ceremonial, it is strategic. It is widely believed to be the final political window before the President makes the most critical subnational decision of his tenure: choosing who succeeds Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

 Since leaving office as governor in 2007, Tinubu has maintained an extraordinary grip on Lagos politics. His influence has shaped every succession cycle. Babatunde Fashola, his former Chief of Staff, was his direct protégé. Akinwunmi Ambode, who succeeded Fashola, had served as Accountant-General under him. Sanwo-Olu, in turn, was elevated to office in a dramatic political recalibration that truncated Ambode’s second-term ambition. In all instances, Tinubu did not just endorse candidates, he determined outcomes.

 But today, that once predictable system appears to be under strain.

 The political environment has evolved. A new generation of actors, less beholden to the old order and more assertive in their ambitions, is emerging ahead of the 2027 elections. This shift introduces a level of uncertainty that Tinubu has not had to contend with in previous cycles.

At the forefront of the succession debate is Dr. Femi Hamzat, the incumbent deputy governor. His credentials are formidable. A technocrat with deep administrative experience, Hamzat has been a consistent figure in Lagos governance and is the longest-serving deputy governor in the Fourth Republic. For the records, he is the only deputy governor to have been inaugurated twice since 1999. He is, indeed, in many respects, a natural successor.

 Yet, his candidacy is not without complications. The political arithmetic of Lagos is delicate, and symbolism matters. His late father, Oba Mufutau Olatunji Hamzat, held the traditional title of Olu of Afowowa in neighbouring Ogun State. In the hyper-sensitive identity politics of Lagos, this raises uncomfortable questions among stakeholders. Can the son of a monarch from Ogun State be entrusted with governing Lagos? It may seem trivial, but in politics, perception often outweighs logic.

 Moreover, the elder Hamzat was no ordinary figure. A former member of the Lagos State House of Assembly in the Second Republic and a key player in the Oshodi/Mushin political axis, he was part of the Justice Forum, the powerful bloc that helped propel Tinubu to power. That legacy, while prestigious, also reinforces concerns about the concentration of influence within a single political lineage.

 Another name that continues to surface is Akinwunmi Ambode. His abrupt political downfall in 2019 remains one of the most controversial episodes in Lagos history. Some now frame a potential return as an act of political restitution, an opportunity to correct what they describe as an elite-driven injustice. It is widely believed that Ambode’s removal was less about personal betrayal of Tinubu and more about dissatisfaction among influential Lagos stakeholders who felt alienated by his leadership style. He was largely famed for not answering phone calls of the elite class.

 However, politics is rarely driven by sentiment. Trust and loyalty are the currencies that sustain Tinubu’s political structure. Even if Ambode did not directly offend the President, the events of 2019 created fractures that may not be easily repaired. The question remains: can a leader once deemed unreliable be trusted again with the keys to Lagos?

 Hakeem Muri-Okunola presents a different kind of candidacy. As the Principal Private Secretary to the President and a former Head of Service in Lagos, he represents a technocratic and administrative pathway to power. His rapid rise within the system has been attributed to longstanding family relationships. There are suggestions of a deeper, almost generational connection between Tinubu and the Muri-Okunola family, which could weigh in his favour.

Then there are aspirants like Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, and other emerging figures. Their challenge is not ambition but independence. Lagos politics, under Tinubu’s watch, has never favoured candidates with autonomous political structures. The fear, often expressed by critics, is that such individuals could eventually dismantle the very system that brought them to power.

 This brings us to the core of Tinubu’s dilemma.

 The President must choose between competence and control, between loyalty and independence, between continuity and evolution. A strong, independent governor could assert authority in ways that diminish Tinubu’s long-standing influence, especially if the President secures a second term and approaches the final phase of his national leadership.

 Adding another layer of complexity is the whispered possibility of Seyi Tinubu. The President’s son has grown in visibility and influence, particularly among younger political actors. While still speculative, the idea of a dynastic transition cannot be entirely dismissed. However, such a move would be fraught with controversy. Supporters would say that Oloye Olusola Saraki did it in Kwara. But Lagos is not Kwara.

 Timing is also crucial. Even if such an option were to be considered, it may be more strategically viable in a post-presidential context rather than during Tinubu’s active tenure in office. For now, it remains a delicate and potentially explosive proposition.

 Ultimately, Tinubu’s challenge is unprecedented in his political career. The man once celebrated as Nigeria’s ultimate kingmaker now faces a succession puzzle with no easy answers. Every option carries risks. Every decision has consequences.

 Perhaps this explains his apparent withdrawal from public ceremonies during the Lagos visit. The real work is not in cutting ribbons or commissioning projects, it is in making a choice that will define not just the future of Lagos, but the enduring strength of his political empire.

 For the Jagaban, this is not just another decision. It is a defining moment. And this time, the path forward is anything but clear.

NB: The hypotheses above are grounded in prevailing electoral dynamics that place greater weight on the preferences of political godfathers, while giving less influence to the electorate, who, if allowed a freer choice, might act independently of what Asiwaju decides.