By Gabriel Ewepu 

ABUJA – AHEAD of the 2027 general elections, a survey conducted by Yiaga Africa, indicated that amid the challenge of insecurity, the Northern region expressed strongest voting interest and intention to vote.

Yiaga Africa disclosed this on Thursday in Abuja while presenting its report tagged ‘Who Will Vote?’, the first round of its National Voting Intentions Survey for the 2027 elections.

According to the report, 67 per cent of respondents in the North-West and 45 per cent in the North-East expressed willingness to participate in the polls, while voter enthusiasm remained lowest in the South-South at 29 per cent and the South-East at 25 per cent.

Incidentally, Yiaga Africa noted that the regions with the highest voting intention also expressed the greatest fear of electoral violence and insecurity as major barriers to participation.

Presenting the findings, Yiaga Africa’s Executive Director, Samson Itodo, said the survey was designed to test prevailing assumptions about voter interest and to identify key drivers and obstacles to citizen participation ahead of the 2027 polls.

Itodo said the survey, conducted between December 1 and 5, 2025, sampled 1,500 respondents nationwide through telephone interviews, covering all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of ±4.26 per cent.

The report revealed that 77 per cent of Nigerians indicated they were likely or very likely to vote in 2027, reflecting strong democratic interest, even as 42 per cent cited fear of violence as the primary reason discouraging participation.

“This tension between democratic aspiration and security apprehension defines the current electoral environment,” the report stated, adding that ensuring voter safety remains a major challenge ahead of 2027.

Yiaga Africa further found that security concerns and quality of candidates, both at 21 per cent, alongside economic conditions at 17 per cent, were the dominant factors influencing voting decisions, suggesting a shift away from party loyalty to candidate-based choices.

While 76 per cent of respondents believed their votes could influence election outcomes, only 45 per cent expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission’s ability to conduct credible elections, with distrust highest in the South-South and South-East.

The report noted that improved security, credible candidates and better INEC logistics could significantly boost turnout, with 67 per cent of respondents identifying security as the most critical factor.

It also revealed that 60 per cent of Nigerians viewed voting as a civic duty, while 85 per cent felt personally responsible for influencing governance through the ballot.

Yiaga Africa recommended that security agencies deploy comprehensive election security frameworks, particularly in high-risk zones, while urging INEC to strengthen voter register integrity and rebuild public trust, especially in the southern regions.

It also called on the National Assembly to conclude work on the electoral bill by January 2026 and urged political parties to conduct transparent and credible primaries.

In his goodwill message, the National Chairman, Inter-Party Advisory Council, Dr Yusuf Mamman Dantalle, expressed concern over declining voter turnout, citing the 27 per cent turnout recorded in the 2023 presidential election as the lowest in Nigeria’s history.

Dantalle said although the introduction of the BVAS and INEC Result Viewing Portal improved election credibility, sustained efforts were needed to address voter apathy and strengthen confidence in the electoral system.