Viewpoint

December 4, 2025

A critical exposition of the problems associated with Nigeria’s leadership succession

Nigeria

By Ayokangun Onatola

Background

The Nationalists – Tafawa Balewa, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Chief Anthony Enahoro, and many more worked hard to get Nigeria’s release from the colonial masters, leading to our independence on 01 October 1960.

In early 1963, Late Awolowo was charged and convicted for treasonable felony. In reaction to his sentence, Àwo declared that as there was a miscarriage of justice on his matter, “I am leaving the Nation in darkness and it’s certain I will return to meet the Nation in the same state, upon my release from jail”.
There was a military coup later, which led to the assassination of the then Prime Minister, Sir Tafawa Balewa and some other functionaries.

Emergence of Gen Aguiyi Ironsi as Head of State
In 1963, Gen Aguiyi Ironsi assumed the mantle of the Nation’s leadership.
About that time, there were ill-feelings on the ground of ethnic differences and perceived domination of the North by Easterners. This led some young officers in 1966 to kick off, struck and the Head of State was assassinated.

Leadership tussle between Col Yakubu Gowon and Col Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu

According to military hierarchy, Ojukwu was senior to Gowon and the former felt he should be the next Head of State. However, in June 1966, the Supreme Military Council decided to reflect national character such that the successor to the IGBO man (Ironsi) should be from another tribe, to rule out possibility of any revenge mission. Yakubu Gowon from the middle belt, where the highest concentration of military were from, was installed as the Head of State.

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Emergence of General Yakubu Gowon as the Head of State
Upon Gowon’s appointment as the Head of State, his rank was elevated to General. Ojukwu was not pleased with the decision and began to put in place an alternative plan – to secede, through creating the Republic of Biafra.

Many personalities and interest groups from Nigeria and outside tried to intervene but things got worse. Gowon and Ojukwu were invited to Aburi, Ghana by President Nkrumah for further mediation and reconciliation.

At the early stage of assumption of office, General Yakubu Gowon granted Chief Awolowo state pardon and was freed from the prison.

Gowon and Ojukwu were made to strike a DEAL (Aburi Peace Pact) for enthroning a lasting peace when they return to Nigeria. It happened that upon return, Gowon was unyielding immediately to the agreed DEAL with Ojukwu in Ghana.

In his post-Ghana broadcast to the Nation, Gen Gowon declared that “on Aburi we do not stand”, as the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of the Nigeria’s Armed Forces and Chairman of the Supreme Military Council. He added that we have to “Go On With One Nigeria” (with GOWON as the acronym). Col Ojukwu drew a battle line right away and the war broke out in 1967.

Involvement of Chief Obafemi Awolowo
Chief Awolowo was one of our foremost nationalists. He was the leader of the defunct Action Group and first Premier of the Western Region (today’s Lagos, Osun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Kwara, Kogi, Ogun, Edo, and Delta States) before the military struck in 1966. He felt so concerned that the united Nigeria they toiled for, should not be jeopardised by personal and selfish interests of some military officers through power tussles.

This led him to have invited Col Ojukwu for a chat. During their meeting session, Awolowo after careful listening attention to Col Ojukwu’s perspective, advised Ojukwu to work with Gowon.

2Deviating from Awo’s counsel, upon return to the East, Ojukwu declared the independence of the Igbos under the aegis of Republic of Biafra and the civil war broke out.

As the Easterners were progressing in their struggle, Awolowo alerted the Federal Government to take concrete steps urgently to preserve a united Nigeria. Àwo further warned if the Federal Government failed to act, the West may follow suit.

Àwo wondered how the Federal Republic of Nigeria can be in a war with enemies from Republic of Biafra and still be allowing them to have access to our market for food, as well as usage of our currencies.

Consequently, the Ọrẹ Bridge was collapsed by the Federal troops and the Federal Government changed the currency. That marked the blockage of the main route of the Easterners to get to South West for food. A few months after those measures were taken, the Biafran leader and warlord, Col Odumegwu Ojukwu fled to Ivory Coast. And the soldiers under him surrendered and the war ended in 1970.

Upon settlement and restoration of Federal Government as being in full control of the Nation, Gen Yakubu Gowon appointed Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the Federal Minister of Finance and Vice Chairman of the Supreme Military Council – the only civilian in the Council.

Emergence of General Murtala Mohammed/Olusegun Obasanjo
Following the announcement of a coup, June 1975 by Brig. Joe Garba, General Yakubu Gowon’s government was overthrown, as he was attending a conference of Organisation of African Unity in Uganda. Gen Ramat Murtala Mohammed was appointed as the new Head of State with General Olusegun Obasanjo as his Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters.

This regime did a lot to inculcate new orientation and sense of patriotism in the citizens. The government presented as a People-centred one, especially with price control administration on cement, sugar, salt and other essential commodities.

Gen Mohammed rarely had full security escorts on Fridays when going for Jumat services. On a fateful Friday, 13 February 1976, he was assassinated during a coup spearheaded by Clement Yildar, Bukar Sukar Dimka, Brig Bisalla, etc.

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General Reflections of events of 1963-1979
The labours of those heroes past began to be washed down with the military coup of 1963 till 1979. It was apparent that the military lacks insight about what governance is about using democracy.

Even when the civilians were availed the opportunities, it is unfortunate that rather than delivering dividends of democracy to the governed, the politicians in connivance with the elite were self-serving and on a looting spree of the public funds.

Emergence of Gen Olusegun Obasanjo as Head of State
General Olusegun Obasanjo was installed as the Head of State following the abortive coup in which Gen Murtala Mohammed was assassinated. Rather than continuing the good re-orientation programme of his boss, OBJ charted a different course. He superintendend over collosal waste of our nation’s resources during the hosting of FESTAC 77; the misappropriation of the Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) blueprint and funds; as well as dubious conversion of the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library (OOPL) Abeokuta, conceived as a public monument to his personal property amongst others.

No doubt, Obasanjo dug the ground for an evil seed to be planted. The fruits are sprouting and their continuity remains unabated. General Olusegun Obasanjo had publicly declared that “we know those we will never handover power to, but I can’t say who will succeed us” before the conclusion of the electioneering campaigns in 1979.

There were five main political parties, namely: Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP, with Alhaj Waziri Ibrahim, a businessman, as the presidential candidate), National Party of Nigeria (NPN, with Alhaj Shehu Shagari a retired Grade 2 Teacher as Presidential candidate), Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP, with Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, a foremost Nationalist, as the presidential candidate), the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) with Alhaj Aminu Kano, a retired teacher and trade unionist, as the presidential candidate) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN, with Chief Obafemi Awolowo, seasoned lawyer/foremost nationalist, as the presidential candidate).

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The Stolen Presidency
Obasanjo handed power to Alhaj Usman Aliyu Shehu Shagari as the president in a controversial election of “12 two-third saga.” The Winner of the presidential election was required to have:
(a) majority of valid total votes cast
(b) obtained 25% of total votes cast in two-thirds of the States of the Federation.
NPN fulfilled the first condition but the failure to meet the second condition led to court cases involving UPN v NPN. Ayodele Awojobi (a Professor of Mechanical Engineering at the Unilag) and Chief Richard Osuolale Akinjide, SAN took the whole nation to the school of arithmetic about “two-third of 19 States” requirement, being twelve two-thirds on behalf of the UPN and NPN respectively.

NPN had scored 25% of votes cast in 12 States and 20% in Kano, while the UPN had won in five States. The UPN challenged the NPN’s failure to have 12 two-third States, while Chief Akinjide argued that a State is indivisible, hence twelve two-third was unobtainable.

To contradict Chief Akinjide, SAN, Chief G.O.K. Ajayi, (SAN) stated that NPN can be deemed winner if the party had got two-thirds of votes cast in 13 States, for the party to have fulfilled the 12 two-thirds requirement.

At the end of the day, 5 out of 7 judges at the Supreme Court in September 1979, led by Fatayi Atanda Williams CJN ruled to declare Alhaj Shehu Shagari of the NPN as the winner of the 1979 Presidential election.

Shagari ruled between Oct 1979 and Dec 1983, before the military junta struck.

Emergence of the Muhammad Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon junta
The nation was in the mood to enter a new year on 31 December 1983, when Brig. Nimyel Joshua Dongoyaro broadcast to inform of seizure of power by the military. Shortly after was another broadcast to announce that the new military government was to be headed by Gen Muhammud Buhari and Maj Gen Tunde Idiagbon as the Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters, General Sanni Abacha as Chief of Defence Staff and Ibrahim Babangida as Chief of Army Staff.

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The face of this administration was Maj Gen Tunde Idiagbon. The administration was tough, tried to inculcate discipline in the citizenry but appeared draconian, with no regard to human rights. This was excuse given by the coupists why the government was toppled.

Emergence of Gen Ibrahim B Babangida
Gen Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida staged a palace coup to take over on 27 August 1985, while Idiagbon was on pilgrimage to Mecca.

IBB was reputed to be the one that institutionalised corruption and adjudged the most corrupt Nigeria’s Head of State, with many vices swept under the carpet before his eyes and under his watch.

In 1990, he transmutated to an ‘evil genius’ as military President after supervising zero party elections for all political offices except President. A self-styled ‘Maradona’.

He later allowed party formations by the politicians to begin and shortly ban 49 political associations that were formed. In return, IBB gave the Nation, 2 political parties, what he called “a little bit to the right” and “a little bit to the left” – National Republican Convention (NRC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) and ordered the politicians to join.

These were the platforms on which new governors and National Assembly members emerged, until the results of the June 12 presidential elections of 1993, conducted by Prof Humphrey Nwosu and deemed won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola were annulled by President Babangida. Due to attempt by IBB to perpetuate himself in office, he was pressured by the Military Council to leave.
On 26 August 1993, a day to complete 8 years in office, IBB announced that he’s ‘stepping-aside’. He put in place an Interim National Government headed by Abiola’s kinsman, an Egba man, Chief Ernest Adegunle Shonekan, with General Sani Abacha as Chief of Defence Staff.

Emergence of Gen Sani Abacha as Head of State
Not sooner that Chief Shonekan began to take charge, General Sani Abacha staged a palace bloodless coup to overthrow Chief Shonekan and dissolved his Interim cabinet in late 1993.

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Abacha ruled till 1998, as a terror and dealt with the perceived untouchable personalities like Abiola, Shehu Musa Yar’ Adua, Olusegun Obasanjo, MKO Abiola, etc. That marked the third return of the khaki boys till 1999.

Emergence of General Abdusalaam Abubakar as Head of State
Gen. Abacha suddenly died in 1998 and Gen Abdusalaam Abubakar was made to head the Nation’s government. Gen Abdusalaam Abubakar stay was short and handed over power to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Before then, Gen Obasanjo was incarcerated for involvement in a fanthomed coup along with his erstwhile Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters, Gen Shehu Musa Yar’ Adua, by Late Gen Sani Abacha.
OBJ, another kinsman of Late MKO Abiola, an Ẹ̀gbá man, was used as a compromised candidate by the Northerners. He was made to be released by Gen Abubakar thereby escaping the gular of death that took Yar Adua away. A concession was given to OBJ whom the Northern Oligarchy found comfortable to work with as the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

OBJ had 8-year rule as a democratically elected civilian President between 1999 and 2007.

Emergence of Alhaj Umar Yar Adua/Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
Instead of allowing fair play at the transition period, OBJ manipulated the system to have an ailing Governor (Umar Musa Yar Adua) as his successor and a Polytechnic lecturer, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as Vice President. Both men were known to be very new in politics.

With the death of Yar Adua in 2010, Goodluck Jonathan assumed the role of Acting President till 2011. During this period we have begun to read about the Boko Haram attacks and invasion of farms and villages by Fulani herdsmen. The 2011 Presidential election was won by Dr Goodluck Jonathan and he was in office till 2015. Throughout this period, there was myriad of problems, including terrorist activities in the South East, threatening the security and stability of the Nation.

Emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari /Prof Yemi Osinbajo
The presidential elections of 2015 were won by Muhammad Buhari/Prof Yemi Osinbajo as the flagbearers of the All Progressives Congress (APC). They defeated incumbency power of the PDP-led Federal Government headed by Dr Goodluck Jonathan.

Throughout the eight years of Buhari administration, the nation knew not, nor experience peace and stability. That state of uncertainties contributed to the battered economy and spate of insecurity and threat to protection of life, inherited by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration in May 2023.

Emergence of President Bola Tinubu/Shettima
One word that the Northern Oligarchy dislikes is ‘HOPE’. They don’t want any slogan about assuring the masses of a better future. Awo’s crusade of “Egalitarian Society for All” was like a ray of hope, for which he was hated. Despite being a Moslem, MKO Abiola’s slogan of “Hope ’93” was a bitter pill, too hard to be swallowed by the Northern oligarchy. Likewise Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope 2023” Agenda was seen by the Northerners as another bitter pill.

As soon as President Tinubu assumed office and began the reforms intended, the bitter pills became a poison for the North. Hence why they have been very hostile to Tinubu. Here is a man who had just completed 2 years and the citizens are expecting miracle for all extant problems and complications to have been resolved by now. It would be unreasonable to think of problems traced to 1979 to 2023 – caused by OBJ and IBB through supporting, influencing and installing incapable sets of personalities as civilian leaders to be solved in a jiffy of 2 years by President Tinubu.

Another source of blame put against President Tinubu was due to his pragmatic approach of untying the dubious knots in our political system which work against focused governance and attainment of success. Where his predecessors in office chose to turn away their eyes from some ills, President Tinubu chose to have his eyes to be plucked out there as long as he effects the desired change and reforms. The relocation of some military bases along geopolitical divisions to ensure equity, the removal of petrol subsidy, the creation of Regional Development Commissions, the issue around Value Added Taxes (VATS) on cigarettes, alcohol etc, amongst others are Tinubu’s sin.

The plot by America against Nigeria under the guise of protection of citizens’ right of religion
We have got to understand the undertone of the internal opposition and external ploy to come and exploit us by the likes of America.

The Northerners seem unhappy with the series of ongoing reforms and restructuring being masterminded by the current FG administration, which they consider unfavourable to them. Likewise, the US government is unhappy at the disposition of the Tinubu-led FG about non-dependence on America, but for Nigeria to strive internally to build up her economy. Including the fact that policies on off-shore crude oil transactions have changed, which America does not like. President Trump never swore on oath with the Bible as US President. He had delisted Nigeria from favoured countries by US Immigration & Visa Center.

In desperation to invade and steal our gold, uranium and other natural resources, Trump had now become advocate of Christians in Nigeria and designated Nigeria as a Country of Peculiar Concern” overnight. President Trump also ensured that US Congress sat on same day, 20 November 2025 that the ruling on Terrorism case by Federal Republic of Nigeria against Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was to be heard. Their calculation was that Kanu may be sentenced to death and will be a catalyst for the invasion plan.

My Personal Assessment and Judgement
From my close monitoring of developments in the country, I see the present FG administration as a target of various opposition blocs and enemies, from within and without. US never allowed Nigeria to have representation in the UN Security Council despite being the most populated nation in Africa and mostly endowed. US was not Nigeria’s coloniser and that should raise doubts as to where her interest lies.

President Tinubu goofed for working hard and clearing the way for Buhari/Osinbajo to have been in the saddle for eight years. Their assets and liabilities are part of the garbage he has to get rid off, now in his restructuring exercise, thereby making life harder for the nation’s citizens.

I personally think the present administration is taking the nation through what is like a surgical operation. It will definitely come with severe pains and upon completion and after some moments of recovery/recuperation, the patient will be good to continue life activities as normal as required.

A Brief on Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s Life Sentence
There have been some Nigerians charged and convicted for treason, akin to terrorism. Examples included: Obafemi Awolowo, M K O Abiola, Shehu Musa Yar Adua and Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Heavens did not fall.

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That explains why the life sentence judgement against the IPOB leader and Director of Radio Biafra, Mr Mazi Nnamdi Kanu should not be seen as an isolated case. Where past governments have failed, the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration, has done the right thing – ensured Kanu had fair hearing and that the trials were transmitted live globally, as well as when the judgement was given on 20 November 2025. That was transparent enough!

A call for Patience, Reasoning and Rationality
I believe Nigerian leaders need to step up their press relations, introducing some palliative measures to ease the problems being confronted daily by the masses. Price control boards should be made to function and regulated well. There should be proper separation of powers between Executive, Legislature and Judiciary at all tiers of government, in order to allow for visible checks and balances. The autonomy of the Local government should be allowed to exist without unnecessary infringement by the State Governors. The Judiciary and Legislature should help to ensure that constitutional provisions are complied with by every arm of government and their agencies.

Patience is required, for us to enjoy the return of Nigeria to her path to glory. Good reasoning should prevail in all we do, both from the government and by the governed. Just as we all need to be rational in our thought and actions – through speech, writeups and whatever medium we wish to show our disgust to government actions or/and programmes.

Conclusion
It is a shame that we are yet to have a workable system for our government and this constitutes a major problem in leadership succession. No concrete National Plan that a new government is bound to continue with the programmes already commenced by their predecessors.

As former Heads of State, Generals Ọbasanjọ, Gowon, Babangida and Buhari had the longest years of service at such. It is a shame that despite their 37 cumulated years (11,9,8,9) respectively, the military is yet to keep their minds away from governance. Or how can we explain military coup staging after our 60 years of independence?

Intentionally, I did not touch on achievements of our leaders, because the purpose of their holding the position in mandate for the citizens is to deliver productive governance.

Rather, more focus was put on their albatross and disservice while having responsibility to add value to the lives of the governed but chose to satisfy their personal aggrandisement.

Without any doubt in my mind, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo remains Nigeria’s no. 1 problem, followed by Gen Babangida; both of whom are the only living venomous enemies of this Nation. They had opportunities to improve people’s living but failed. Their nemesis awaits them in due time.

●Ayokangun Onatola, a professional librarian, wrote in from Luton, England.

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