BY March 28, Nigerians will go to the  polls to elect the person that will govern the country for the next four years. Although fifteen political parties are fielding candidates for the presidential election, the two parties to watch are the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and the All Progressives Congress, APC and their candidates. However, some factors are emerging that may influence the outcome of the presidential election in different regions and states of the country.

Apart from Lagos, Oyo state has the largest voting population in the South West region, a region described as the swing zone or the beautiful pride in the forthcoming presidential election. Analysts are of the views that whoever gets bloc votes from south west is most likely to win the election.

With Oyo state as the second largest voting state in the region, it will play a pivotal role in determining who or which party wins at the end of March 28. But the likely factors that may determine the eventual winner in state as big as Oyo may include the following:

Acceptance in 2011 election

According to the records, Oyo state was one of the states in the South West region where President Goodluck Jonathan won massively in 2011, notwithstanding the emergence of Senator Abiola Ajimobi as the candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria,ACN. According to the statistics, the combination of the votes of the PDP and the Accord Party delivered the state to President Jonathan ahead of the candidate of the then defunct ACN, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.

No doubt, a lot of things have changed since 2011. ACN had merged with All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) to become the APC. To observers, PDP seems to have imploded in the state but in reality, the party is only strategically strengthened for the presidential election even with the break aways as those who decamped from PDP have not strengthened the opposition in the state and are willing and ready to work for the success of President Jonathan in the state.

Campaign committee members

It will not be out of place to say that, the President’s campaign team is made up of individuals who are vast and with deep understanding of the political situation in the state. What would have resulted in a major political catastrophe for the PDP in the state was turned into a team of think-tank of politicians, socialites ,grassroots mobilizers and technocrats now putting all in them for the success of the presidential bid of their principal.

The coordinator of the team, Oloye Jumoke Akinjde is no pushover or novice in the political terrain. With her top class campaign for the Senate in 2011, she has left nobody in doubt as to her profound capacity and strength to run serious campaigns. The campaign took off just three weeks ago has made great impact across the length and breadth of the state.

Jonathan’s impact during first term

Another factor that may work in favour of Jonathan in the state is his impact in the state during his first term. Oloye Akinjide believes the efforts of the President will speak for him at the polls. Speaking recently to management and staff of the University College Hospital, UCH Ibadan, Akinjide described the President as the best in the history of the country going by the levels of impact and transformation he had brought to the nation

Creation of Ibadan state

For decades now, creation of Ibadan state has been a long dream for the people of the state. With massive landmass and huge population, many people wonder why carving another state out from the 33 local governments in the present day Oyo state is taking time.

Indeed, relief came to many when the last National conference organized by the President Jonathan recommended the creation of Ibadan state among others. Not only that, as a way of listening to the yearnings of the people, the President promised the people of the state, the creation of a new state, if he wins the forthcoming election

This point obviously, suits majority of the people and this seems the selling point of the Jonathan’s campaign team. The realization of this dream is already been celebrated by the people each time the campaign coordinator mentionsd it either during strategic meetings and consultations or open campaign. The fear of the people is that if they miss this opportunity with the re election of President Jonathan, they may never get the state again.

Ladoja/Accord Party Factor

Senator Rashid Ladoja, former governor of the state is certainly the greatest mobilizer and crowd puller in the state today. He is just not popular, he is well loved by the masses. Curiously, he is vying for the governorship of the state on the platform of Accord Party, a party he nursed and nurtured to life in the state. Observers believed his relationship with President Jonathan since his days in the PDP is still cordial. The endorsement of President Jonathan by Accord as announced by the National Secretary of Accord, Hon. Nureni Oladipo Adisa was an icing on the cake. With this, the structures, arsenals and all of Senator Rasheed Ladoja would be put behind the candidacy of President Jonathan. To many, it is a big one for Jonathan.

Seyi Makinde, the ebullient, rich Governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party SDP is also interested in the candidacy of President Jonathan. Apart from the fact that SDP at the national level has directed its members to vote for Jonathan, Makinde is said to be making the election of Jonathan a point in his campaigns.

The Elephant of Oyo politics

Otunba Adebayo Alao Akala has a long standing relationship with President Goodluck Jonathan. They both served as Deputy Governors and got catapulted to the number one position through similar circumstances. Akala, a highly popular, sagacious, well loved and relationships friendly person would also want to give his all, to the man who personally gave him support with his presence at his 60th birthday, a development that strengthened his administration then.   Afenifere/OPC factor

The recent endorsement of President Jonathan by Afenifere, the foremost Yoruba socio-cultural organisation is an added advantage to him and serve as a huge impetus to the handlers of the president campaign in the region.

But while there is still bickering about the Afenifere’s endorsement of the President, another Yoruba group, the Oodua People’s Congress, OPC, gave its full backing to the reelection bid of President Jonathan.

Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”

General Buhari’s antecedent against Lam Adeshina

The incident of October 13, 2000 is another major factor that has drastically weans the chances of General Buhari in the state. On the fateful day, the retired General had led hundreds of armed Arewa youths to the Governor’s office during Late Lam Adeshina’s administration over an alleged killing of Fulani herdsmen in Saki which arouse tension in the state.

Although, the intervention of the late governor saved the situation that would have degenerated into a tribal war, the people, mostly farmers in Saki and Oke Ogun Area of the state are yet to forget the incidence, even after about 15 years. It is believed that the people of the region who played host to the Fulani community but suffered loss in terms of human and farm resources and the apparent disdain and lack of respect exhibited by Buhari against the Governor of Oyo State then, Alhaji Lam Adesina are seeing this as an opportunity to pay the retired General back for his tribal bigotry.

Rousing welcome during campaign

To say the least, the kind of rousing welcome the team that has been propagating the campaign messages of President Goodluck Jonathan is receiving across the state has been another morale booster.

Everywhere they go, it has been one form of acceptance to another. The massive traffic of people, unions, groups and associations that besiege the Akinjide plaza campaign office daily to declare support for Jonathan is an attestation to the success of the grassroots mobilization effort of the campaign organisation

Fear of opposition (posters and billboards vandalization

For a while, the aggressive manner the members of the opposition destroy and vandalized President Jonathan campaign billboards in the state was a cause of worry to many. The recent arrest of a council boss in Oyo East local government on his alleged roles in supervising the demolition of the billboards. Observers read the action to mean an attempt to disrupt the flow of the PDP presidential candidate, whose messages have been receiving wide acceptability within the nooks and crannies of the state

Afenifere/OPC factor

The recent endorsement of President Jonathan by Afenifere, the foremost Yoruba socio-cultural organisation is an added advantage to him and serve as a huge impetus to the handlers of the president campaign in the region.

But while there is still bickering about the Afenifere’s endorsement of the President, another Yoruba group, the Oodua People’s Congress, OPC, gave its full backing to the reelection bid of President Jonathan.

Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”

With major political heavy weights in PDP, Accord, Labor, SDP and others, key social and cultural leaders, opinion leaders, youths and women genuinely working for President Goodluck Jonathan, one does not need a soothsayer to predict that Oyo State is not just safe for Jonathan, but a state where he will get mass of the votes

•Mr. Femi Omolola, a public affairs analyst, wrote Ibadan, Oyo State.