By Rotimi Fasan
As the race to the 2011 elections hots up, the front runners seem to be emerging. At least within the ruling PDP the race is gradually coalescing into a straight contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida.

This may appear a curious conclusion to make, especially as President Jonathan is yet to formally declare interest in the race. But this too is clearly part of the strategy- only a blind person would be deceived into reading Jonathan’s body language in any way as to suggest he may not want to be part of the 2011 race.

If others had been waiting for such formal declaration of interest, or had hoped they could persuade the President not to be part of the race on grounds that the zoning arrangement in the PDP does not support his candidacy- or indeed that he should simply play the statesman interested in opening a new chapter in Nigerian politics rather than muddying the waters further with his own personal ambition, such persons must now be deceiving themselves if they still hold on to such hope.

Jonathan will join the race and given his control of the levers of power, he can do so much later than would be expedient for others not in control of the war chest that is the power of incumbency. Babangida knows this despite his firm support of the North’s position that the presidency has been zoned to that part of Nigeria.
It is for this reason that he has carefully set up his campaign organisation, named his support staff and chosen a date later this month to formally declare his interest in the 2011 election. Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, whose interest in the race has never flagged, is yet battling to remove the clog that has been thrown in his electoral wheel. Members of the PDP, particularly from his own home state, are determined to scuttle his ambition with their refusal to recognise his membership of their party.

Atiku is not keeping mum and is threatening to go to court should the PDP fail to recognise that he is now a bona-fide member of the party. So until matters change, the presidential race in the PDP will remain a straight fight between Jonathan and Babangida.

But curiously both potential combatants are acting ever so friendly with each other. They make it all look like all is well, not only within their party but also between both men and their families. Babangida on a visit, last week, to the PDP headquarters, or what is left of it after the fire incident that gutted it, wants Nigerians to know he enjoys a fine relationship with the first family.

The President’s wife calls him often, and does not forget to ask after Babangida’s grown children. Of course, IBB is a widower and it’s only natural for the kind-hearted wife of Jonathan to know how Babangida is taking care of his adult brood, a couple of who are married with children. Thus Babangida, through his visit to the PDP head office, sends his regards to the President’s wife.

We’ll know in the intervening weeks and months leading to the elections how cordial both families have remained. On Jonathan’s part, matters have not been much different. Not only has he met with and been acting friendly to IBB, he has affected a solid indifference to the entire presidential race that might still be getting many confused as to his interest in the race. Rather than acting like someone getting set to take a step that might prove not only portentous to his career but for the entire country, Jonathan has continued to behave like a courtier who does not know the use of power.

Not only is he acting like someone not in government but he has also been acting like a person not in power. He has been spending the better part of his time celebrating the return of Theodore Orji and others in Abia to the PDP. (He has, however, remained curiously silent on Atiku’s case.

But that is understandable: Atiku is a rival whose ouster from the 2011 race makes Jonathan better positioned to make short shrift of his PDP opponents; which is yet another proof that his silence on his presidential ambition is a loud statement of interest). While he attends to matters like this across the country in ceremonial garbs, Obasanjo goes around in a different direction holding forte on his behalf. Who still wonders if the President would be joining the race?

But there is neither bile nor anger in either of Babangida or Jonathan when questions turn to the presidential race. Babangida is a consummate politician in this regard. He never expresses strong emotions in public. Unlike Obasanjo who is not averse to cussing, even giving the occasional shove to opponents in public, Babangida always tries to look presidential.

Check out his visit to the PDP office last week and others like that. Jonathan on the other hand has been and seems determined to remain a very good student of the IBB school, at least with regards to managing his emotions. Looking then at the manner the PDP has handled questions of the presidential contest within the party so far, one would be forgiven to think Nigerian politics has entered a new era of tolerance.

But these are people deceiving people and Nigerians would be foolish to imagine that the apparent calm on the surface is a sign of how well things are within the party. We’ll only need to wait and see how things go if, as it’s been given out in certain quarters, Jonathan fully enters the race after the Ramadan. Then it would be interesting to see just how friendly both presidential aspirants are and if such friendship extends to their lieutenants too. We wait.