“You can’t beat something with nothing.” American Baseball Team Manager; after his team lost seventeen games in a row.”

I wrote the first part of this series on Sunday, March 30, 2014. On Monday, March 31, 2014, THISDAY published a lead story alleging that a Muslim-Muslim ticket was being planned by the All Progressive Congress, APC. According to the paper, General Buhari (rtd) is proposed to be the presidential candidate, while Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, would be the Vice Presidential candidate. I smiled; because it was no news to me. First, I have been informed about the development a few days before. One of the two had visited someone in Abuja; and, he made the point that ‘ANYBODY CAN DEFEAT JONATHAN’ [capitals mine]. And on that basis, it was decided that A Muslim-Muslim ticket was safe – after all Christians voted overwhelmingly for the Abiola-Kingibe ticket. Christians, again, failed to protest, vigorously, the Buhari-Idiagbon military leadership – both of which were Muslim-Muslim teams. I had smiled when this was mentioned to me – because I expected it. Why? Let me explain. But, first, permit me to make two pertinent comments.

Ordinarily, I would not have tried to offer any explanations to those asking this question, except that last week, the matter was raised by the Publisher of VANGUARD, our dear Uncle Sam, in Abuja. We had gone to the nation’s capital for different reasons and accidentally met at the VANGUARD office. On our way to lunch (for me a free lunch which no ajeru Area Boy would turn down) Uncle Sam informed me that he was with some friends who were “disappointed” that Dele Sobowale, who writes mostly philosophical articles, would descend so low as to start introducing religion into politics.

Forgive me for breaking up the article IF I DON’T MAKE IT. The National Conference is far more important than anyone’s private life – including mine. Two weeks ago, I had written the first part of this piece with a definite bias which must again be declared up front. I want the 2014 CONFAB to succeed. As the publisher of THISDAY Newspapers, Mr Nduka Obiagbena, had pointed out, this CONFAB cannot solve all of our problems. No CONFAB can do that because previous military governments had endorsed constitutions which had led us into the dead end in which we find ourselves.

Words of wisdom, as you will soon discover. If I wake up on the morning of May 8, this year, I will beam a benevolent smile on anybody saying to me “go and die”. What else is there to do? On that day, I would have broken a family jinx or curse as a result of which no male child in the Sobowale family, in two hundred years, had made it to 60. On that day I will be 70.

Call it calling a dog a bad name in order to hang it; or what you like. But, the Ibibios, who constitute more than sixty five per cent of Akwa Ibom State, have regrouped under former Governor Victor Attah and they have jettisoned zoning. The next governor of Akwa Ibom State will be an Ibibio. Part of the reason for their change of mind on zoning is contained in the allegations quoted above.

At least two people, one alive and one departed, must be shaking their heads, with sadness and disbelief, when reading that story about Akwa Ibom. This was one tragedy they struggled for eight years to bring to an end in the state. And they largely succeeded such that by 2007, Akwa Ibom state was rid of child traffickers and baby factories. Now, it appears as if the progress made by 2007 had been dissipated in another eight years. The most important question which should bother all of us is: if the progress which we see daily advertised about the state is real, why are people still engaged in this trade/ why are kids still being treated worse than slaves? It was not always like this; not in 2007.

The authorities of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, ably led by the Honourable Minister, have been working very hard to rid the nation’s capital of undesirable elements. Ever since that great friend of poor people, Malam El-Rufia, formerly of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, became Minister, they have been demolishing homes and shops, as well as the dwellings of poor people, which they call shanties – as if any really destitute person can afford palatial mansions. Malam El-Rufai is now a leading member of the All Progressive Alliance, APC, the opposition party – some of whose governors have also been demolishing buildings like the demon.

Millions of Nigerians are, once again losing billions of naira on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. In the last three weeks alone, about ten per cent of the value in January had been lost and more losses are on the way. It is on occasions such as this when I wonder if writing for Nigerians is not a bloody waste of time.

The regular readers of this page must forgive me for postponing, once again, the continuation of the series on the INHERITORS – the second generations of Nigerians who allowed great enterprises bequeathed to them to crumble. The next would have been the LAWSON Group of Companies, among which was the ECOBANK, once headed by Mr Kolapo Lawson. The slide down the greasy slope of misfortune for the group started several years ago. But, this is not the time for that.

Most often a person in high office, public or private, does not know who his true friends are, while in good standing – until he starts to slide down the greasy slope of fortune. By then it is too late. My sympathies are always with those who have been used and discarded – like tissue paper. Alhaji, your night came; when you were forced to resign the Chairmanship of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP

Phil Graham, late Publisher of the Washington Post, who committed suicide by shooting himself, once described journalism as “the first draft of history”. I am neither a journalist nor historian but it is my hope that some time in the future, historians, if history which Obasanjo banished from our schools is restored, will read this. It will reveal to them how miraculous it was that after the 2014-2015 political upheavals there was a country called Nigeria left for them to call their own. It was all well and good for General Buhari in 1983, as the military Head of State to state that: “This is the only country we have”. Most Nigerians, in 2014, are apprehensive, more than at any other time that good old Chinua Achebe might have left a curse with the title of his last and extremely controversial book – THERE WAS A COUNTRY. In 2014, everything which could lead a fragile federation to disintegrate is happening without any countervailing forces to reassure the citizenry that all will be well.

The Jukuns probably serve best to illustrate the problems of small ethnic groups strung across several states. To the best of my knowledge, they can be found in Benue, Nassarawa, Taraba and parts of Cross River States – in the Katsina Ala area. And like the Fulani/Hausa, they have been involved in ethnic conflicts in every state. How will their representative(s) be chosen? And, in the event of a break-up of Nigeria, where will they go?

I stake my claim to advise my President on two things. First, I am a citizen of Nigeria, one of the 170 million souls you now lead. I don’t want to be led astray or into another nationwide conflict. Second, I belong to that group of Nigerians, called Area Boys, who live strictly on our own brand of street wisdom. In any situation, we always know when we are beaten before the fight starts and we tactically withdraw. You see, my President, there is nothing more wasteful of lives and opportunities than fighting for lost causes. You are about to get engaged in one unnecessary battle.

Our collective tendency to think of Nigeria in terms of WA-ZO-BIA (Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo) is probably responsible for the enthusiasm with which some of us embrace break-up of Nigeria or even confederation. Some might even think that the British met us neatly divided into East, West and Northern regions. So why not simply return to those enclaves. Nothing could be further from the truth. Not even the Yorubas and Igbos formed one nation before 1914. However, one thing is clear: breaking up along regional lines will leave the nation emerging from the “North” totally landlocked. That unfortunately will be the least of its problems.