By Gabriel Ewepu

ABUJA – WITH five days to the Osun governorship election, an election observer, Kimpact Development Initiative, KDI, Monday, warned that security risks could trigger a crisis if the Federal Government fails to nip it in the bud.

This was contained in a report titled ‘Pre-election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) Report Ahead of the 2026 Osun State Off-Circle Governorship Election 2026, which was presented at a press conference organised by KDI in Abuja.

Speaking on the essence of the report, the Executive Director, KDI, Bukola Idowu, said the risks ahead of the election on Saturday August 15, 2026, is worrying, therefore, demands attention in order to have a smooth conduct of the election.

According to Idowu, the report presents KDI’s assessment of the election security environment in Osun State, flagging emerging trends, potential flashpoints, and key risks that require the attention of electoral stakeholders. 

He also said the report presentation serves as a platform for dialogue on the actions needed to support a peaceful, credible, and secure election.  

He explained that the findings are drawn from data gathered by KDI’s trained long-term monitors and enumerators, deployed across all 30 Local Government Areas of Osun State and neighbouring communities. Using KDI’s established ESRA methodology, monitors tracked political developments, flagged emerging risks, and documented incidents of electoral violence and related concerns in the lead-up to the election. 

Meanwhile, based on the findings, the report identifies Osogbo, Irewole, Ede North, Ede South, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Olorunda, Ayedaade, Ife North and other politically significant LGAs as locations requiring enhanced preventive engagement. 

It also develops probability-based election scenarios illustrating how logistics failures, politically sponsored violence, misinformation, perceived security bias and organised youth mobilisation could interact to generate electoral tension during polling and the immediate post-election period.

The assessment concludes that the success of the Osun Governorship Election will depend less on the absence of isolated incidents than on the ability of electoral institutions, security agencies, political actors and local communities to manage the interaction of multiple electoral pressures before they escalate into wider conflict. 

The lessons emerging from Osun are therefore expected to provide important operational insights for strengthening election security planning, institutional coordination and democratic resilience ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.

He said: “We are gathered because credible elections are not secured on election day alone. They are secured in the days, weeks and months before voting, through good intelligence, impartial institutions, responsible political conduct, trusted communication, prepared citizens and timely preventive action. This meeting is therefore not simply a report launch. It is a call to turn evidence in o coordinated action before risks become incidents and incidents become crises.

“Why does Osun matter now? The Osun election matters far beyond the choice of one governor. It is the final major off-cycle governorship election before the 2027 general elections and the first highly competitive test of important changes in Nigeria’s electoral framework. It will test election logistics, security coordination, technology, results management, stakeholder compliance and, most importantly, public confidence. What succeeds or fails in Osun will shape preparedness, expectations and reform for the entire country. Because of this national significance, KDI conducted the assessment as a decision-support and early-warning tool-not as a prediction of violence or an indictment of any community, party or institution. 

“The report addresses three practical questions: where pressures are building, why specific locations are vulnerable, and what each stakeholder can do now to reduce the risk of escalation.

“We cannot dismiss the warning. It arrives at an especially sobering time: just five days before the Osun governorship election on Saturday, 15 August 2026, and only months before Nigeria begins the decisive phase toward the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for 16 January 2027.”