By Gift ChapiOdekina,Abuja

Abuja — The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has raised concerns over potential disruptions in the global oil market following the decision of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective May 1, 2026.

In a policy advisory issued by the Institute and signed by its Registrar and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Victor Olannye, CRMI described the development as a “landmark shift in global oil governance” with far-reaching implications for economies and energy markets worldwide.

Olannye warned that the UAE’s exit could trigger increased oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in global energy supply chains, urging stakeholders across sectors to urgently reassess their risk management strategies.

“This landmark development signals a significant shift in global oil governance, potentially leading to increased market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and energy supply chain disruptions,” he said.

“CRMI advises corporate members, public sector institutions, financial institutions, and individual risk professionals to reassess their risk management strategies and strengthen institutional resilience.”

The Institute identified key risks arising from the development to include a possible breakdown in OPEC cohesion, heightened oil price fluctuations, geopolitical instability, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the risk of other member states exiting the oil cartel.

While noting potential opportunities for Nigeria, CRMI said the country could benefit from increased production flexibility, possible expansion in market share, and improved revenue prospects.

However, it cautioned that such gains may be offset by exposure to price volatility, reduced supply management protection, heightened competition, and possible fiscal instability.

The Institute outlined a series of policy recommendations tailored to different stakeholders. It urged corporate organisations to adopt robust risk management frameworks, implement dynamic hedging strategies, and diversify their business portfolios.

Financial institutions and investors were advised to reassess energy-related risks, strengthen portfolio diversification, and improve risk disclosure practices.

For the public sector, CRMI called on policymakers to strengthen fiscal buffers, fast-track economic diversification, and intensify efforts toward renewable energy transition.

The Institute also encouraged individual risk professionals to upgrade their expertise in geopolitical risk analysis and energy economics, while developing competencies in scenario planning and predictive analytics.

CRMI further projected possible future scenarios, including the fragmentation of global oil governance structures, a shift toward more market-driven oil pricing mechanisms, and a faster pace of global energy transition.

It urged all stakeholders to take proactive steps to reposition their strategies in response to the evolving geo-economic landscape.