By Ademola Adedoyin

For the tenth consecutive month, Nigeria recorded inflation moderation in January, with headline inflation easing to 15.10 per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025.

Most significantly, the latest inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that—for the first time in over a decade—food inflation dropped sharply into single digits, falling to 8.8 per cent. While this is not yet Eldorado, economists agree that sustained month-on-month moderation signals easing price pressures and the early reversal of entrenched inflationary trends.

The decline in food inflation is particularly consequential for low- and middle-income households, which devote a disproportionately large share of their income to food. If sustained, Nigeria may be said to have turned a critical corner after years of economic dislocation.

From inception, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made clear that his economic agenda would rest on two pillars: fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification. Few doubted that the transition would be turbulent. The administration was under no illusion about the immediate hardships involved but judged reform unavoidable if stagnation was to be reversed.

By May 2023, the economy stood on the brink. Public debt had climbed to ₦87.4 trillion, with debt service consuming over 100 per cent of government revenue. Annual budget deficits ranged between ₦4 trillion and ₦11 trillion; fuel subsidies gulped more than ₦10 trillion in eight years; the foreign exchange system operated multiple windows that encouraged arbitrage; and external reserves had fallen to about $34 billion.

Confronted with these grim realities, decisive economic surgery became inevitable. Predictably, the immediate aftermath was painful: fuel prices surged by nearly 200 per cent; transport costs spiked; the naira depreciated sharply; inflation accelerated into the high-20s and low-30s; and food prices worsened. Poverty deepened and social tensions rose.

Yet, nearly three years on, the reforms are beginning to yield measurable dividends.

A major turnaround has occurred in the oil and gas upstream sector. Under the previous administration, crude oil theft reduced output to below one million barrels per day by 2022. Under the Tinubu government’s firm approach, production has recovered, at times reaching Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.

This rebound, alongside fiscal and monetary reforms, has lifted foreign reserves to about $49 billion as of February 5, 2026, driven by higher oil receipts, improved remittances, foreign exchange reforms, and a sharp reduction in fuel imports.

The deregulation of the downstream sector is also delivering results. Estimated annual savings of about $7.5 billion from subsidy removal are now available for infrastructure and social investment. Sub-national governments are better funded, clearing salary arrears and accelerating projects, though performance varies.

Support for the Dangote Refinery has further reduced petrol imports. Daily imports fell from 44.6 million litres in 2024 to about 14.7 million litres by April 2025—a 67 per cent decline. Petrol import bills dropped by 54 per cent in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, from $2.6 billion to $1.2 billion.

Foreign exchange unification has boosted investor confidence, attracting an estimated $21 billion in capital inflows within ten months. Nigeria also recorded a $10.83 billion trade surplus in the first nine months of 2025—its first in years. GDP growth rose to 3.8 per cent in Q4 2024 and accelerated to 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025, while the debt service-to-revenue ratio improved from nearly 100 per cent to about 50 per cent.

The central question remains how quickly these macro-level gains translate into tangible relief for ordinary Nigerians.

There is broad agreement that President Tinubu assumed office at a defining crossroads—marked by high inflation, foreign exchange stress, declining oil output, and eroding confidence. The reforms he initiated were painful but necessary.

Today, inflation is easing, macroeconomic stability is gradually returning, foreign exchange pressures are softening, and Nigeria’s credibility with investors is improving.

Much remains to be done, and the journey is far from complete. Yet, step by step, Nigerians are beginning to see that the initial pain of reform is yielding progress—and that prosperity may indeed be within reach if momentum is sustained.

Ademola Adedoyin, FNIPR, is an award-winning journalist, communication consultant and PR practitioner based in Lagos.