“Move like the chameleon. Keep one eye on the past, and the other on the future”.– African proverb.

Last week, several groups, associations, and activists from the northern part of the country came together in Kaduna for what has now become an annual ritual in many parts of the country. This time, though, they made a special case for January 15, arguing that it must be more than just another significant date in the history of a country with a rich inventory of dates to remember or celebrate. 

It has been 60 years since the murders that triggered a disastrous chapter in the history of the North and the country as a whole. The groups reminded the country that rogue elements of the military killed Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Nigerian Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa and other prominent northerners, including  senior military officers from the Region as well as the Premier of the Western Region. There were no other speeches on the occasion or messages to the North from leaders.

 Significantly, January 15 also happens to be the Armed Forces Remembrance Day. It was the day Lt. Col. Olusegun Obasanjo, on the Nigerian side, formally received the surrender of the remnants of the Biafran army after their defeat and the flight of the rebellion’s leader in 1970. It may or may not have occurred to the leadership which  moved the hitherto Poppy Day, a colonial token to Men and Women of the Armed Forces from November to January 15, that the symbolism of a day housing massive history could acquire a political hue at some stage. You have parts of the country feeling entitled to mourn a historic injustice. At the same time, the day celebrates the sacrifices of citizens who commit their lives and limbs to protect the territorial integrity of the fatherland on the same date, making the military simultaneously hero and villain, the driver of events that dramatically altered the character of the Nigerian state.

 The elderly northerners paid glowing tributes to heroes who fell 60 years ago and the Nigerian military currently fighting sundry threats in mostly Sardauna’s North. The irony was not lost to close observers. Younger Northerners living under very trying circumstances often challenge elders over their obsession with speaking of a great past when the Native Authority police alone kept Northerners safe. They ask who dropped the ball and why, and for specifics on how to regenerate a North that can assure them of decent lives. They ask what happened to the North of the Christian and the Muslim, the child of the poor and the powerful and the rich. They ask for explanations of a phenomenon in which northerners terrorize other northerners. They ask of the military that served with pride and competence in restoring the territorial integrity of a country with such great promise, and if it is the same military that is today hard-pressed to defeat bands of terrorists crippling huge parts of the North.

 They ask for explanations for the  pervasive image of the Northerner as either feared or despised in large parts of the South and even in the North. They ask for reasons behind over the poor quality of leaders in the North. They find it challenging to reconcile history which recorded Sardauna and his colleagues living behind one or no personal houses, with today’s leaders who own huge assets acquired only through holding public offices. Their’s is a North with 18 million Almanirai; of decaying or non-existent infrastructure; of drugs and violence and hatred and helplessness. They ask the value of reminding them of a glorious past when all they see is failure and conflicts.

 Northern elders carry a very heavy cross. When they commit to re-inventing the North, they find themselves looking like grandfathers telling tales to clever children. Today’s Northern rulers will take much to dislodge. They have their own agenda, shorter to achieve and more certain: win the next election, at all cost. The North is not free to re-design its future and re-invent its fortunes. There is the rest of Nigeria, many with plans that do not include a strong and productive North. The South-West wants to pull ahead through fair and foul means. It can do this with a political leadership focussed on pushing opportunities and resources in its direction. The South-South sees a future that allows it to influence its political economy with the oil and gas assets it sits on. It  will tolerate sharing with other regions largely on its own terms as guaranteed by the thin layer below which organized violence lurks.

 The South-East has paid a huge price for its low-level split personality. Its condition is uncannily captured in the short history of Nzeogwu. He led a clumsy coup that was hijacked by others. He died fighting as a rebel, but was given a hero’s burial by the same Nigerian military he was fighting. Sixty years after Nzeogwu’s coup, there is still a layer of sentiment that the Igbo has no business with, or place in Nigeria, yet he will not leave, or stay on his own terms. There are hundreds of minorities all over the country, most of them too small to survive alone and too important to be left alone by the big groups. They pay a price as surrogates, and on occasions, they benefit from fallouts when the big groups need them. Nigeria has always been a tough place to be weak.

 It will be interesting to see the outcome of the major soul-search which Northern groups promise. They must know that the 2027 elections are already here, and the vast majority of its political elite have pitched their fortunes with President Tinubu’s APC. Can elders and desperately unhappy young Northerners take on very powerful politicians who tip-toe around a President whose popularity in the North can do with some hefty improvement? Does the North and its aging elders have the clout to extract actionable concessions from Tinubu or the opposition regarding the region’s decaying economy, insecurity and youth bulge? Should the North negotiate and capitulate?

 At this stage, Tinubu has a lot more cards than Northerners who think they can influence him to play a smaller version of the Sardauna: move nearer to the people, address inequality, secure the citizen and invest in the future. He can play Muslims against Christians and large groups against small ones. Even the Sardauna was severely challenged by the North’s vibrant pluralism, and today’s  19 states and intimate linkages between political offices, personal wealth and resources trickling down to communities will tilt the balance towards Tinubu. Can the North be persuaded to vote for the opposition? Possibly, but a lethargic opposition and the haunting experience of Buhari’s eight years will be a difficult obstacle to ignore.

 Sixty years is a long time, but it does not appear to have made much difference in the basic structure of Nigerian politics. You have a large, complex North, only this time weaker and poorer and more vulnerable. You have a West progressing faster than the rest, but still haunted by deep, historical divisions. Today’s South-South plays all sides to be on the table. The East has lost a lot of its glitter, but it can pull a punch without asking whose jaw it hits. January 15s will always mean a lot to many Nigerians, but the value of learning history lies in using it now and in the future.