“Fuel subsidy is gone!” With those four words, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signalled the end of Nigeria’s decades-long subsidy regime during his inaugural speech at Eagle Square in May 2023. He argued that the subsidy could no longer be justified and that funds saved would be channelled into infrastructure and programmes to improve citizens’ lives.

But the decision led to astronomical rise in the price of petrol, which in turn led to a sharp spike in prices of food and other essential commodities.

As inflation soared and poverty deepened, government rolled out a series of welfare interventions, cash transfers, grants and other social programmes designed to cushion the blow. 

But the latest World Bank report titled: “The State of Safety Nets in Nigeria” revealed that only 44 per cent of Nigeria’s welfare benefits actually reach the poorest citizens. The World Bank report noted that there is a wide disparity in the number of beneficiaries, with more than half of those who need the safety nets not getting them.

It runs contrary to official narratives that portray social programmes as effective buffers against hardship.

Instead, the report shows that more than half of those who desperately need support are excluded from it, a damning indictment at a time when millions struggle with eroded incomes and rising poverty. Nigeria has never lacked welfare schemes. From school feeding programmes and agricultural subsidies to conditional cash transfers, successive governments have churned out initiatives promising to lift citizens out of poverty. But the persistent problem has been delivery; benefits rarely reach the people for whom they are intended.

The World Bank’s findings reinforce concerns long voiced by civil society: leakages, weak data systems, political interference and opacity undermine social programmes and allow resources to be diverted into the hands of the privileged rather than the vulnerable. It is sad that billions are spent on welfare, yet there is nothing to show for it: investments in several social safety net programmes do not reach majority of Nigeria’s poor population who need them. 

We call for urgent overhaul of how beneficiaries are identified, how funds are distributed, and the monitoring of results. This, we believe, can rebuild trust and deliver genuine impact. We also need a functional national social registry, insulated from politics and updated regularly.

Leveraging technology for direct payments, strengthening audit systems, and prosecuting those who siphon public funds would go a long way to restoring integrity.

Ultimately, welfare programmes must be more than headlines and political slogans. They must translate into real help for real people: the market woman struggling to feed her family, the unemployed youth, the elderly poor, and the displaced person trying to survive without a safety net. Nigeria cannot continue with a system where more than half of its welfare efforts evaporate before reaching those who need them most.