By Kenneth Oboh

Bitcoin has climbed back above $91,000 following a brief rebound from last week’s lows near $81,000, bringing a modest rise in buyer activity. Nevertheless, analysts note that the move does not signal a sustained bullish trend, and overall sentiment remains fragile.

Bitcoin’s recovery and external drivers

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin moved back above $91,000 after a week of declines that pushed the price to a seven-month low of $81,000. Analysts view the latest move as a technical rebound supported by improving sentiment across global markets. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen above 80%, according to CME FedWatch data, which has strengthened demand for risk assets. United States equity indices also remain resilient, and expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance continue to support Bitcoin as a high-risk asset.

The short-term price increase, however, does not change the broader picture of uncertainty. Selling pressure remains evident. Major holders continue to send large volumes of BTC to exchanges, a pattern typically associated with preparation for selling. CryptoQuant data also indicates that the average deposit size has climbed to its highest level in a year, indicating the growing share of large transactions. At the same time, a sharp increase in stablecoin reserves on Binance suggests that part of the capital prefers to remain on the sidelines until clearer market signals emerge.

Inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and ongoing debate around Federal Reserve policy continue to shape the crypto market’s outlook. Investors are closely watching upcoming macroeconomic releases, including labor market data and inflation indicators, which could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. For now, Bitcoin has strengthened, but its recovery appears dependent on external factors and does not yet indicate a full return of bullish momentum.

The outlook through the eyes of analysts

Despite the recent rebound, many experts point to the continued absence of long-term signs of a trend reversal. CryptoQuant data shows that a significant share of BTC inflows to exchanges consists of large transactions exceeding 100 BTC. This suggests that whales are still distributing holdings, which maintains pressure on the market. Historically, similar patterns have preceded periods of slower growth and, in some cases, renewed waves of decline.

The technical picture further reinforces pessimistic views. The 200-day moving average has turned downward for the first time in an extended period, and the death cross that appeared in November remains one of the most concerning indicators for long-term investors. Analysts note that Bitcoin is increasingly trading below key trend levels, confirming ongoing market weakness. Volatility is rising on downward moves, and the options market shows elevated demand for put contracts, indicating that investors are hedging against further downside risk.

Liquidity conditions have tightened as well. Flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remain unstable, with periods of inflows followed by notable outflows, which weakens support from buyers. Some experts believe the market could retest the $70,000 to $80,000 range as part of a final washout of leveraged positions before a potential recovery. Long-term institutional interest remains a supportive factor, but not strong enough to initiate a decisive upside move. Analysts broadly agree that without improvements in macroeconomic conditions and reduced whale activity, a sustained reversal will be difficult to achieve.

Tom Lee softens his outlook

Even some of the market’s most persistent optimists are adopting a more cautious tone. Tom Lee, head of BitMine and one of the sector’s well-known bulls, has moderated his earlier Bitcoin price prediction that the asset would reach $250,000 by year-end. He now notes that even a return to the October peak of $125,100 remains only a possibility. His current projection is noticeably more restrained than previous targets and reflects the prevailing sentiment across the market.

Lee’s change in tone has become a psychological marker for many investors. His earlier forecasts were viewed as a reference point for long-term Bitcoin bulls, and stepping back from aggressive targets signals reduced confidence in Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Analysts note that his more cautious stance is consistent with a broader trend of institutional skepticism and the absence of strong catalysts for a rapid recovery.

Macroeconomic conditions add to the uncertainty. Despite rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, inflation data remain uneven, and global risks continue to weigh on markets. Economists caution that even Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $90,000 does not guarantee a meaningful upward move. Against this backdrop, many experts now shift expectations for stronger growth into the first half of 2026, when changes in monetary policy and a reshaped Federal Reserve may provide a more supportive foundation.

A cautious outlook

Bitcoin’s recovery above $91,000 has not resolved the underlying uncertainty. Selling pressure from large holders, a weak technical structure, and limited institutional inflows continue to shape a guarded view of the market. The latest rise appears more like an attempt at stabilization after a sharp decline than the beginning of a sustained reversal.

A potential Federal Reserve rate cut and an improved macroeconomic environment could support short-term interest in Bitcoin, but a lasting uptrend will require a firm break above key technical levels and renewed confidence among major investors. Until that occurs, analysts expect restrained price action and believe a strong upside impulse may not emerge until 2026. The market remains sensitive to economic data, regulatory developments, and whale activity, leaving Bitcoin’s short-term prospects uncertain.

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