•Expect further Naira depreciation 

By Babajide Komolafe & Elizabeth Adegbesan 

Businesses have expressed less confidence in the  economy with the Overall Confidence Index as  the next three months fell  by 3.2  index points to 14.5 from 17.7 index points.

This was the highlight of the Business Expectation Survey, BES of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, for October which also showed decline in the  Overall Confidence Index, OCI, for the current month, next month and the next six months.

According to the CBN the OCI for the current month, next month and the next six months fell to 1.4, 4.8, and 21.8 index points in the October BES  from 3.2, 6.2 and 29 index points in the September BES.

The survey also indicates that the decline in  confidence in the economy is being driven by firms’ expectation of further depreciation of the naira before the end of the year. 

 The CBN said: “The overall confidence index (CI) on the macroeconomy indicates that businesses were optimistic in October 2024.

“Respondent firms expect the naira to depreciate in the current month, next month and next 3 months.   However, they expect appreciation in the next 6 months. 

“Top six business constraints high interest rate, insecurity, high/multiple taxes, inadequate power supply, unfavorable economic climate, financial problems.

“The optimism on business outlook in the current month is driven by the opinion of  respondents from all the Sectors except the Industry Sector.

“Most Sectors expressed optimism on their own operation in the review month. The outlook of respondents on the Volume of Business Activities, the Volume of Total Order, Financial Conditions, and Access to Credit were all positive in the review month.

“In line with the favorable expectations, businesses hope to employ more workers in the month of November 2024 except for the Construction Sector.  An analysis of the Sectors showed that Agriculture had the highest prospect for employment and expansion in November 2024.

“Respondents mentioned High interest rates, insecurity and high/multiple taxes  as top business constraints for October 2024.”