THE incessant ambushing and killing of soldiers and policemen by civilian gangs in Nigeria is a sign of anarchy. When soldiers and policemen, symbols of state authority, become frequent targets of civilian attacks, it’s an indication that citizens are rebelling against the state and that the state lacks a monopoly on the use of organised violence. But unless controlled and contained, the situation could deteriorate and lead to an open theatre: a dreadful scenario!

No decent Nigerian won’t be appalled by the recent killing of 17 soldiers, including four officers, in Okuama, Delta State, and six policemen in the state, and I pray for the repose of their souls. But why does the situation exist in Nigeria? Why are military-civilian relations so bad that civilians frequently ambush and kill soldiers? Elsewhere, it’s almost a taboo to criticise the military. This is not because there’s a law against it, but because, by convention, based on genuine respect for the military, people revere soldiers. For instance, in the US and the UK, there are countless charities established to support serving soldiers, veterans and their families. But such public affections for the military and, indeed, the police hardly exist in Nigeria. Why?

I am always inspired by the motto of the London School of Economics: “Rerum cognoscere causas”. It’s Latin for: “To understand the causes of things.” That’s the right approach to solving any problem; you must first understand its causes. But Nigeria focuses on the symptoms of problems, rather than their causes. For instance, the president, Bola Tinubu, condemned the Okuama killings as “unconscionable crime against the Nigerian people” and gave the military “full authority” to bring the perpetrators to justice. He saw the problem only through the prism of retributive justice. Yet, the regularity of the ambushes and fatal attacks on Nigerian soldiers, not by Boko Haram terrorists but by people in otherwise peaceful but aggrieved communities, require more than condemnations and retributive justice. The situation calls for thoughtful considerations of the causes and the way forward. 

So, what are the causes of the deteriorating military-civilian relations in Nigeria? Well, there are three main causes. First, Nigeria is not a nation. It is a state, but not truly a nation. It is hard to imagine citizens ambushing and killing soldiers and policemen in a true nation. Second, even though Nigeria is a state, with all the paraphernalia of statehood, it is a fragile state. It lacks the capacity to tackle security threats from organised non-state violence. And third, the military and the police have not endeared themselves to the Nigerian people. As a result, there is mutual distrust, even hostility, between them and many people who see them as oppressive agents of an unloved state. Let’s elaborate on the three causes.

Take the first. There’s a difference between a state and a nation. A state is a mere political entity with a settled population, a defined territory, a government and instruments of coercion. But a nation is more than that. A nation has internal cohesion, because all its people have a sense of belonging and a strong sense of shared identity. But Nigeria lacks nationhood. Power is at the centre, while the core ethnic identities remain at the regions. However, in any country where there is a mismatch of power and identity, disharmony is inevitable. The central government won’t have legitimacy in the eyes of many people and can’t secure their voluntary compliance. 

Here’s the truth. Aggrieved communities across Nigeria see the Nigerian state as responsible for their problems, yet far removed from them. Scholars posit that the solution to the mismatch or misalignment of power and identity is to move the structure of power towards the structure of identities. That means decentralising power and devolving it to regional governments. It is interesting that in the First Republic, people in the regions rarely blamed the centre for their problems. Why? Because the regions had significant responsibilities, and each region self-governed in its own concerns. The Nigerian state must not be a symbol of grievances and hatred in communities across the country; Nigeria must restructure and devolve power to the regions.

The second problem is that, even though a political leviathan, Nigeria is a fragile state. Indeed, according to the World Bank’s Fragile State Index (2023), Nigeria ranked 15 out of 179 countries, which means that it is extremely fragile, even more fragile than Niger Republic that ranked 21! Lack of security is at the heart of fragility, and a key characteristic of a fragile state is that it can’t respond effectively to security challenges. So, here’s the question: how can Nigeria escape the fragility trap and become an effective state? Well, truth be told, Nigeria can’t be an effective state unless it is a strong nation. That’s because state building requires nation building. 

Which brings us to the third problem: the failure of the military and the police to endear themselves to Nigerians. In their seminal report on state fragility, Professors Paul Collier and Tim Besley wrote: “Each interaction between the security forces and a citizen is a ‘teachable moment’ that either increases or reduces trust in government.” Unfortunately, interactions between the Nigerian security forces and the civilians engender hatred. 

For instance, the military has sometimes extremely overreacted when civilians killed soldiers or policemen, as they did in Odi, Bayelsa State (1999) and Zaki Biam, Benue State (2001). In their book Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know, John Campbell and Matthew Page wrote that the Nigerian military “sees collective punishment of civilian communities as a legitimate and effective military tactic.” But such an attitude will only deepen hostilities, not engender affection.

During the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, President Hosni Mubarak ordered soldiers to clamp down on the protesters, but they refused. As a result, the Egyptians today see their military as protectors and friends. But the Nigerian military will readily stop legitimate protests at the government’s orders and even brutalise and kill protesters as they did during the #EndSARS protests. For many years, the US refused to sell military equipment to Nigeria, citing the military’s human rights abuses. Good military-civilian relationship can’t exist in such circumstances. 

So, Nigeria must tackle the worsening military-civilian conflicts at their roots. That means forging true nationhood, building an effective and functioning state and reorientating the security forces to endear themselves to the people. Nothing else will work!   

Happy Easter, dear readers!