By Dickson Omobola

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, on Tuesday lit up the steps of political gladiators in Edo State, when it announced September 21, 2024 as date for the governorship election in the state. The tenure of incumbent Governor, Godwin Obaseki will elapse on November 11, 2024. 

The INEC’s announcement will obviously rekindle the bitter political battle between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the main opposition All Progressives Congress, APC. It would be recalled that Edo State was under the firm grip of the APC when Governor Adams Oshiomhole was in the saddle, and he handed over to Obaseki on November 12, 2016. 

Oshiomhole, who enjoyed wide support across the state, utilised that opportunity to install Obaseki, who then chairman of his Economic Team, as governor, against the wish of some stakeholders as Obaseki was relatively unknown.

Oshiomhole, Obaseki’s differences

However, the love between godfather and godson did not last long. A year after Obaseki emerged governor of the state, a crisis ensued between him and Oshiomhole. The trouble started when Obaseki banned APC leaders from entering Government House shortly after they supported his emergence. Some APC youth leaders such as Osakpanwa Eriyo were thrown into prison to the chagrin of Oshiomhole.

The former Labour leader, Oshiomhole, tried to call his boy to order but to no avail and as punishment he got the APC national hierarchy to disqualify Obaseki as an aspirant.

To continue with his re-election quest, the governor had to look for another platform. On June 19, 2020, Obaseki and his deputy, Philip Shaibu dumped the APC for PDP, which later gave them tickets as governorship and deputy governorship candidates. They went on to win the election, and that was how APC lost Edo to PDP.

New opportunity for APC, PDP

So when the INEC announced the date for the election on Tuesday, for the APC it is another opportunity to strategize on how to recover the state, which many believed was taken from the PDP by Oshiomhole through hard work and the law courts. 

On the part of the PDP and Obaseki, they would want to tell the world that PDP has come to stay. But it is obvious that they should expect the political ruggedness of Oshiomhole and his APC owing to the fact that those Oshiomhole enthroned as leaders of the state led by Obaseki ended up betraying him. No wonder many aspirants under the APC have been expressing their interest to gun for the governorship position.

Challenge for Oshiomhole

The situation now is a huge challenge for Oshiomhole, many of whose supporters and even the APC hierarchy in Abuja must have warned not to repeat the mistake made in bringing Obaseki as governor.

The first challenge before Oshiomhole will be where the governorship ticket goes. Is it to Edo South where the incumbent Obaseki hails from or Edo Central, an area many believe have been marginalised in terms of the governorship? It is being rumoured that Obaseki has anointed his friend, Mr Asue Ighodalo, from Edo Central as his successor, after damaging the ambition of his embattled deputy governor, Philip Shaibu, who is from Edo North. 

Oshiomhole’s strategy

It is true that many are canvassing for Esan Agenda (Edo Central) but Oshiomhole’s strategy will be to win and nothing more. Looking at the aspirants indicating interest to face the PDP on September 21, 2024, it is obvious that the battle for the APC ticket is between Edo Central and Edo South where Obaseki hails from. 

APC aspirants

Some of those who have indicated interest on the side of the APC include former deputy governor of the state, Chief Lucky Imasuen (Edo South); former House of Reps member, EJ Agbonayinma (Edo South); Mallam Gani Audu (Edo North); Prince Clement Agba (Edo North); General Cecil Esekhaigbe (Edo Central); Mr. Victor Eboigbe ( Edo Central); Prof Oserheimen Osunbor (Edo Central); Mr. Gideon Obhakhan (Edo Central); Mr. Saturday Uwuilekhue (Edo South); Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu (Edo South); Col. David Imuse (Edo Central); Mr. John Yakubu (Edo central); and Mr. Denis Idahosa among others.

There is also talk that former Minister of State, Works, Engr. Chris Ogiemwonyi (Edo South) will join the race soon. The immediate past Director of Finance in the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Gen. Charles Airhiavbere is yet to jump into the race but there are strong indications that the APC hierarchy may persuade him to join, owing to the fact that he has remained loyal to the party. 

As it is now, Oshiomhole ceded the ministerial position to Edo North in the person of Alhaji Abubakar Momoh. With the influence of Oshiomhole in Edo North, APC is considered strong in that area. It is true that Edo Central believes that it is their turn after Senator Osarhiemien Osunbor tasted it between May 29, 2007 to November 11, 2008, before the Appeal Court declared Oshiomhole as authentic winner of the governorship election. But the best bet for the APC is to cede the ticket to Edo South with seven local government areas.

This is because while they are strategizing, APC needs to also watch the activities of Labour Party, LP that is already strong in Edo South and in the event that they decide to give their ticket to a popular Benin man from the South and APC goes Central, the contest may become dicey for APC, particularly now that Obaseki is looking Central, which for many is a good omen for APC.

All Oshiomhole needs is to pick a Benin man as candidate of the party and Edo Central produces the deputy governor since the minister is from Edo North. This, it is believed, will guarantee victory for APC. 

Now looking at the candidates from Edo South, Gen. Airhiavbere, if the party is able to persuade him to join the race, is one man that has all it takes to fight the PDP and Obaseki for Osadebey Avenue. The former Commander of the Army Finance Corps and Accounts and immediate past Executive Director Finance and Administration, at the NDDC, was the PDP governorship candidate who challenged Oshiomhole in the July 14, 2012 governorship election. His emergence as the PDP candidate then unsettled the then ACN due to his deep pocket and influence in the military. 

However, Oshiomhole who was basking in his popularity and of course his developmental strides as Governor then won the election. 

In 2015, Gen. Airhiavbere dumped the PDP with his supporters to join APC. He again ran for the governorship in 2016 against Obaseki and others. But when Oshiomhole anointed Obaseki as his successor, Airhiavbere rallied other aspirants behind Obaseki. He ran again in 2020 but Oshiomhole preferred Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu for the ticket. Again Gen. Airhiavbere worked for the party but unfortunately Ize-Iyamu was outfoxed by Obaseki.

So, many who have monitored the politics of the state over the years, believe that Airhiavbere is the kind of man Oshiomhole needs to sack Obaseki and PDP in the coming election. From a regimented circle, he is expected to be loyal to the party and leaders. His relationship with the Palace of the revered Oba of Benin is also an advantage to APC. And from his antecedents, he is a progressive, a man who has the interest of his people at heart.

This attribute played out when Governor Obaseki sacked 14 APC House of Assembly members. General Airhiavbere came to their rescue and housed them in his Abuja hotel. It was actually during that turbulent period that those G14, as they are fondly called, echoed these qualities of his regretting the choice of Pastor Ize-Iyamu as their governorship candidate. And in terms of management, as the immediate past Executive Director Finance and Administration of the NDDC, it was said that Airhiavbere exhibited high intellectual prowess in assisting the management to redirect the commission positively.

He was said to have introduced policy frameworks which will assist the current management achieve its goal in ensuring that the Commission delivers its promises to the people of the Niger-Delta. 

So as the APC primaries beckon sometime in February 2024, all eyes will be on Oshiomhole and his team to get the right man who will help the party achieve victory against Obaseki and the PDP on September 21, 2024.