By GODSON MONEKE

DEMOCRACY is generally understood to be a government of the people by the people and for the people. It means that the people is at the heart and centre of democracy. Democracy is not the same as a government of civilians by civilians and for civilians generally known as civil rule. Democracy does not allow for discrimination and nepotism. It amounts to dishonesty to call a government which harbours both  innate discrimination and nepotism as a democratic government. A government which practised nepotism and statism as statecraft as Buhari’s government cannot lay claim to democracy. What we had in Nigeria between 2015 and 2023 under the last administration was a civilian autocratic rule and not a democracy. Buhari was not a democrat but a totalitarian ruler. Corruption flourish under totalitarian leaders because patriotism is not their forte but the elevation of personality cults. The Tinubu government which is following Buhari’s footsteps may turn out to be worse than the Buhari government. All indices of social and economic development are reading negative under the Tinubu government. Where is his much vaunted and trumpeted dexterity in governance which was sold to Nigerians overtime? Was it a hyperbole which was deceptively sold to unsuspecting Nigerians. The time has come for him to prove his mettle and he is stumbling into one misstep or the other and running from pillar to post . What is happening today in Nigeria will show demagogues that there is a world of difference between political jingoism and governance. TALK IS CHEAP!!! Nigeria is not under any economic sanctions as the government of Zimbabwe under Mugabi or Venezuela under Chevez, so why is Nigeria’s economy in a freefall? 

What is the sense in ECOWAS rushing to impose economic sanctions against the Niger Republic when more viable options have not been explored? Did ECOWAS, especially Nigeria, think through the actions before embarking on them? Nigeria is not economically strong at the moment to be imposing sanctions against any country. What Nigeria is doing in the name of ECOWAS sanctions is nothing but self-immolation. Why does Nigeria think that cutting off electricity supply to Niger Republic will not hurt the country more than Niger Republic? If Niger Republic retaliates by constructing dams across River Niger, thus depriving the Kainji Dam and other dams in Nigeria the necessary water supply, will our actions not amount to cutting one’s nose to spite one’s face? Where is wisdom in such? What happened to the bilateral agreement reached with Niger Republic not to dam River Niger and for us to supply them electricity in return? What is the implication of damming the upper River Niger in Niger Republic for agricultural, irrigational, fishery and associated  activities in Northern Nigeria? What of the air route to Europe? Did Nigeria think about the wider implications for air travelling Nigerians going to and from Europe when it is cutting off air ties with Niger Republic? If sanctions must be imposed against Niger Republic at all,  such a regime should be led by France and the US because they have the tentacles and muscles to make it more effective. Nigeria should not be involved at all. What happened in Niger Republic should be seen as their internal affairs into which Nigeria must not dabble. Nigeria is a deeply troubled country that is recording retrogression in all indices of development. This attitude of putting up a deceptive façade that all is well should be banished. We should stop living a lie.  ECOWAS is ragtag and depends largely on Nigeria to push through all its actions and agenda.  

Nigeria should not be part of a proxy war between the West and Russia, if not China. Nigeria has more than enough security challenges to be hugging a war against Wagner Mercenary fighters in Niger Republic. Our resources are already overstretched and we don’t need to attract more loads to ourselves. Our political leaders should consider the well-being of the citizens and not just their selfish interests and protection of their political empires.

ECOMOG which fought in Liberia and Sierra Leone was financed almost singlehandedly by Nigeria with little support from Ghana. In the end we have nothing to show for our efforts and resources spent on those countries. Why do we want to travel the same route again in the current Niger Republic imbroglio? Besides, what warranted and gave rise to ECOMOG was different from what is playing out in Niger Republic. There were complete breakdown of law and order in Liberia and Sierra Leone. ECOMOG went into the two countries to restore law and order and not to restore any overthrown government. After all, the legitimate government of Samuel Doe was overawed by the private army of Yormie Johnson which killed him and took over the Presidential Palace in Monrovia. Eventually, the war which was like a civil war was won by Charles Taylor and his private army which formed the government in Liberia. It was the same motive of restoring law and order that also informed ECOMOG intervention in Sierra Leone. There is no such breakdown of law and order in Niger Republic. The Nigerien people are apparently supportive of the coupists, showing that the overthrown civilians government was anti-people. What justification does Nigeria have for standing against the Nigerien people in this circumstance?

Nigeria’s economy at the moment is in a very bad shape and involvement in any war now will exacerbate the parlous economic situation. It is an unwise thing to do at this time. For the past 20 years which escalated in last 10 years going forward, the country has been assailed by security challenges of gargantuan proportion and we have been left to our own devices by the international community, thereby allowing terrorists of all colouration to poke us in the eyes.

Nigeria hosts the largest number of economic migrants from Niger Republic and the ECOWAS military intervention is neither popular among Nigerians nor Nigeriens. So, what  is the motivation for embarking on a war which the people of the two countries resent? You cannot embark on a war which all fabrics of the society reject. For example, during the Second World War, the entire Coca Cola plants all over the world were shut down but they continued to advertise with the crypt message: COCA COLA HAS GONE TO WAR, underscoring the message that even corporate bodies were mobilised to support the war, talk less of the citizens. 

The crisis is not about democracy but pursuit of vested interests. For example, the current president of Egypt was a military General who overthrew a democratically elected government (the Brotherhood), but the world accepted him while he put those he overthrew in jail and even killed some. What happened in Egypt was more serious than the trouble in Niger Republic, yet no person raised a whimper. What kind of hypocrisy is this? 

In year 1981 or thereabout, the erstwhile Chief of Army Staff, General TY Danjuma was reported in the press to have admonished civilian leaders that only a good and responsive government could stop a military coup d’etat. The then civilian politicians ignored that patriotic advice and a coup happened on January 1,1983. What happened in Niger Republic must have been as a result of the irresponsibility of the overthrown civilian leadership. A government that is concerned with protecting foreign interests to the detriment of its citizens is living on borrowed time; therefore, I am not surprised at what is happening in Niger Republic because it is the truism of causes and events.

The so-called ECOWAS military intervention is only a camouflage for a direct Nigeria’s military involvement which is ill-advised. Like I said earlier , during the ECOMOG in Liberia and Sierra Leone, Nigeria footed all the bills and logistics with little support from Ghana, a fellow Anglophone country in the sub region. The Francophone countries in West Africa played little or no roles then. A country like Côte d’Ivoire is showing interest now because of the France political and economic interests in Niger Republic which are apparently under threat by the new military rulers. This is hypocrisy and selfishness.  It is long known that all Francophone leaders in West Africa are puppets of France. They cannot use Nigeria’s head to break coconut again. If Côte d’Ivoire is genuine, let it lead the charge instead of just announcing that it is contributing a paltry 1000+ soldiers. How many tanks, aircraft and artillery is Côte d’Ivoire committing to the mix? 

Let France do what they did in Côte d’Ivoire when former President Gbagbo refused to accept defeat in a free and fair election. 

The truth is that the mood of the citizens informed France action in Côte d’voire then. It cannot do the same now because the mood of the Nigerien people is anti- France.

The current federal government became the legal leadership in the country upon being sworn in on May29, 2023. Its legitimacy is still being tested in the courts and until the courts decide on the matter, its moral authority to involve Nigeria in a war with another country or wage war with another country under any guise is problematic and questionable. Is the current federal government planning to suspend the constitution because Nigeria is at war. It is important to let mischief makers know that an ECOWAS war is not the same as Nigeria’s war. Besides, the constitution envisages a scenario of Nigeria fighting off external aggression and not a situation where Nigeria is invading another country and fighting a needless war which is  ill-advised for Nigeria to get involved in.

About seven States of Nigeria share boundaries with Niger Republic. Apart from common boundaries, some Nigerians share cultural, filial , linguistic and other consanguineous relationship with citizens of Niger Republic. How will a war with Niger Republic pan out? A diplomatic approach is the only solution to the problem. The insistence on restoring the overthrown government is difficult if not impossible to achieve especially now that the overthrown president has formally resigned. The only plausible option now is to put pressure on the new military rulers to pursue a Democratic Transition resulting in a  free and fair election and handover to the elected leader within a short period after all, Gen. Abdulsallam Abubakar achieved a similar milestone in Nigeria under six months.

The US is the most important and richest country with the strongest military in the world. Its support for any government in Africa is not fixated on any individual leader or government. Therefore, it is foolhardy for any African president to believe that the US will support him even when he is unpopular among the  citizens of his country. It is its national interests that determine the pendulum of its support. Most importantly, its support is guaged by the mood of the people. It will abandon its support for any government once it finds out that the citizens are overwhelmingly against such government.

Consequently what will eventually play out in Niger Republic is that the current military junta will be forced to return to civil rule and allow political activities if diplomacy is applied. The ousted president may or may not be allowed to participate in the new election. The US and France can then support a political party of their choice to achieve victory at the polls with a view to restoring their interests which the current military rulers have instigated the people against. The next efforts will be on who will win over the people and the only way to win them over is through a transition to civil rule program.

Conclusively, I posit that the people are at the heart of democracy but there is a growing tendency for African political leaders to be beholden to foreign interests and powers at the expense of their citizens. Political leaders believe that they can use electoral malpractices and rigged elections to attain any height in politics in spite of the people and so long as they don’t ruffle the feathers of a vested world power. Political leaders now have scant regard for the people because they believe that their feelings don’t matter in their political successes and calculations.  They mischievously mix up democracy and civil rule. Studies have shown that some civilian leaders in Africa are more autocratic than military rulers. It is arguable whether there is more corruption and economic leakages under civilian leadership than under military leadership. Therefore, political leaders should understand the true meaning of democracy and play by the rules.

Moneke, a quantity surveyor, economist , sociologist, administrator and sociopolitical advocate wrote from Abuja