By Our Reporters

If the results of the Presidential and National Assembly elections conducted on February 25, 2023 were anything to rely on or used to project what happens what happens in the next elections some states in the northern part of Nigeria would have already begun to sing their victory songs and send congratulatory messages to their next governors.

The outcome of that election, though still highly controversial in some cases many may not be the same with the governorship election now billed for next Saturday. This is due to the dynamic nature of politics, which continues to shift the pendulum until the last moment a winner emerges. The trouble is that many factors that swung the pendulum of victory in the February 25 elections may not apply in the same way and manner in all the northern states.

Many of the key actors who spearheaded the success of that election do not wish to play the same roles in next weekend’s governorship poll. In many cases, the interest of the key actors has since waned after delivering their presidential candidates in the last poll while they may not be too keen in dabbling in the governorship race of any of the northern states after delivering their presidential candidates. But head or tail, new governors will emerge next Saturday to pilot the affairs of the states and give a helping hand to the next president and members of the 10th National Assembly.

The peculiarities of each of the northern states and who may or may not win the governorship poll is presented for each state of the North.

BORNO: Will Zulum coast home to victory?

By his charismatic nature and identification with the rural folks despite the reign of terrorism in his territory, Governor Babagana Zulum is expected to enjoy a walk over in Borno State. He has been working assiduously to get things better for his people since coming to power about four years ago and has continued to fuel the foundation of the All Progressives Congress, APC, which is the party that flourishes most in the state since the inception of democracy in 1999.

Under his administration, many families who were displaced by the Boko Haram terrorists have been resettled and reunited with their families while thousands of homes have been built by him for the displaced persons. But the governor still has to contend with the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, Governorship Candidate, Ali Jajari; New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, and Labour Party, LP, flag bearers in the state.

Although these candidates are not as strong as Zulum, considering their bonding with the electorate, it would be unwise for the governor, who is seeking re-election to go home and sleep and expect a landslide victory without hard work.

Zulum is expected to coast home to victory especially since the APC, his party triumphed in the last presidential election in the state.

Kebbi State: It’s 50-50 for APC, PDP

After the PDP upstaged the ruling APC in the Presidential election in Kebbi State two weeks ago, there is hope that it can repeat a similar feat in the governorship election, this weekend. But the situation may change as the governorship election is not the same as the one that Atiku Abubakar won recently. The APC Governorship Candidate in Kebbi State, Dr. Nasiru Idris, is however a grassroots man who has been with the people all his life and stands a good chance of taking the day if all goes as planned.

Another edge the ruling APC may have over the opposition PDP regardless of what happened during the presidential elections, is that Idris, a former teachers Union’s leader, represents a break from the kind of persons who have been ruling the state since 1991. It will be recalled that since the state creation in 1991 and the return to democratic rule in 1999 the people of Kebbi have never been governed by a true civilian but by people in ‘uniform’ until Atiku Bagudu came in 2015 to break the jinx. Notably, the first civilian governor Abubakar Musa Garkuwan Yauri was a retired Custom officer and was succeeded by another customs officer, Muhammadu Adamu while another Customs officer, Saidu Nasamu Dakingari took over from him.

Beyond that, many teachers, who are under the Nigerian Union of Teachers, NUT, where Idris superintended as the National leader, are likely to identify with him. However, the PDP governorship candidate, a retired General in the Nigerian Army, Aminu Bande, is not someone who can be written off with a wave of the hand. He is well rooted in the politics of the state and Nigeria and having secured victory for the PDP in the presidential and National Assembly elections, does not intend to go into slumber and await victory. He can still use the same magic wand that triggered a resounding victory two weeks ago for the party and smile to the Government House. It is a 50/50 probability for the two leading contenders in Kebbi.

KADUNA: A hot race between APC ‘s Uba Sani and PDP ‘s Isa Ashiru 

The real contest to succeed Governor Nasir El-Rufai has been narrowed down to two key actors: Senator Uba Sani, the governorship candidate of the ruling APC and that of the PDP, Isa Ashiru Kudan even though those of the LP Jonathan Asake and NNPP, Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi, are also in the race.

The initial permutation was that whichever party that gets the support of the candidates of the LP and NNPP, would comfortably form the new government in Kaduna State in May 2023. Although the LP candidate had denied preparing to align with the PDP to wrestle power from the APC, the PDP in Kaduna had a slight advantage by winning the Senatorial seat in Southern Kaduna where the LP was dreaming of bloc votes. Again, the APGA Governorship Candidate, Andrew Duya, has stepped down for the PDP candidate and called on his counterparts who mean well for the state to rally round the PDP flag bearer.

This, coupled with the fact that the PDP Southern Kaduna Senator-elect, Mr. Sunday Marshall Katung, is a close ally of the PDP candidate, may also aid the party in the next election. This is in addition to the moves being made by religious and community leaders in the zone to work with him to prevent the emergence of the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket despite the fact that the APC deputy governorship candidate is from Southern Kaduna.

Due to the surprising victory of the PDP in last election in Kaduna and the fact that the party took all the Senate seats, many are of the opinion that Àshiru of the PDP may coast to victory.

But the fact that El-Rufai is a sitting governor, who has done a lot of work in the state in the last eight years and is actively backing Uba Sani, is an indication that the election is not going to be a walkover for the PDP. The APC-led government in the state is also not sleeping at all and would not want a repeat of the defeat it suffered during the presidential and national assembly elections on February 25, 2023.

To emphasise the importance which the APC attaches to the victory of the party and Uba Sani, President Muhammadu Buhari has personally appealed to the people of Kadunu to support the governorship candidate and the APC. The president also tendered an apology over the hardship brought by the new cash policy introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

Three-horse race looms in Plateau

The governorship race in Plateau State is likely going to be a fierce one despite the fact that Labour Party and Peter Obi won the presidential poll two weeks ago. Now, the scenario has changed and Obi is not on the ballot and new dynamics have set in. Thus, the major contenders: Mr. Caleb Mutfwang of the PDP, Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda of the APC and Dr. Patrick Dakum of the LP, are likely to work harder if they intend to snatch the key to the Government House, next Saturday.

The most interesting development about these candidates is that each of them has the backing of a godfather who at one time or the other presided over the affairs of Plateau State and they are still very keen on having their hands on the plough even from the back end.

The godfathers who are openly and remotely throwing up their political godsons are: former Governors Jonah Jang and Joshua Dariye, and the outgoing governor, Simon Lalong, who could not win the state for the APC on February 25 despite serving as the director-general of the Tinubu Campaign Organisation.

With the LP winning the presidential election in 11 LGAs while the PDP and APC won three LGAs each, it may be assumed that LP can still repeat the same feat. That possibility may be far-fetched and the 466,272 votes for Obi could be shared among the PDP, APC and LP during the governorship election.  

The PDP’s hands appear slightly strengthened having won five of the eight House of Representatives seats while the APC won three. PDP also won two out of the three Senatorial seats and may probably win the third, if the issues surrounding the Plateau Central senatorial election are resolved in its favour at the end of the day. This means those who secured the victory for the PDP during the National Assembly vote, may also deliver their respective constituencies to the PDP and that may aid the chances of Mutfwang.

However, as the incumbent governor, Simon Lalong, who lost his senatorial election, may want to save his political face by deploying more effort and resources to secure the emergence of a successor in the person of Yilwatda, a feat that has not been achieved since 1999. It may be a bit difficult for him to scale through due to lingering feuds within the ruling APC in the state.

But neither the APC nor the PDP can win in Plateau if those who voted for Peter Obi and the LP in the last election were to return the same votes for Dr. Patrick Dakum of the LP. Advocates of a major shift from the PDP and the APC want a clean break from the two older parties and would therefore want to bring in a new face to the Government House.

Sokoto: It’s between incumbent PDP and APC

The stage is set for a major political onslaught between the APC and PDP in Sokoto March 18 given the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly polls two weeks ago.

The governorship contest is between APC’s Alhaji Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto, a former deputy governor to Tambuwal and PDP’s Malam Saidu Umar Ubandoma, a former secretary to the state government.

The PDP candidate, who is also Tambuwal’s former commissioner of finance, appears to enjoy the support of the incumbent governor and many state government appointees as each of the appointee is struggling to deliver his polling unit so as to retain his seat.

Saidu Umar is seen by many as a newcomer into Sokoto politics, having spent much of his life in the banking industry.

But one of the reasons people see him as the likely successor to Governor Tambuwal is the incumbency factor as many including some traditional rulers in the state have sympathy for the PDP candidate who is anointed by the outgoing Governor to succeed him. 

The PDP candidate also enjoys unbridled support from the religious community including leading Imams and other religious leaders, who see him as someone who would tackle the menace of youth restiveness and other social vices currently plaguing the state.

Again, Malam Ubandoma is widely known in the state as the holder of the prestigious religious tittle of Ubandoma which is only given to the most learned in the Islamic settings and also enjoys the support of the Sokoto caliphate Council, the main custodians of religion, culture and tradition in the state.

The APC Governorship Candidate Alhaji Ahmad Aliyu, a former deputy Governor of the state commands overwhelming support even from the camp of the outgoing Governor.

BAUCHI: Two-horse race as Bala Mohammed fights to retain seat

Today, Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed of the PDP will be fighting to keep his seat which stands at the risk of being taken by the candidate of the APC, and immediate past Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Saddique Abubakar retd.

Arguably, Governor Mohammed has performed well in executing landmark infrastructural projects across the state and running what can be described as a robust campaign, his assurance of victory at the polls is still a long shot.

The governor has a not-too-good record in payment of salaries and pension. As a result, many workers in the state civil service are still being owed arrears of salaries and the story is not different for retired civil servants who are yet to be paid their entitlements and benefits dating back to many years ago. 

There’s also the problem of former party chieftains who have defected to other parties or those who are no longer friends with the governor. Former Speaker, House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, who is currently at loggerheads with the governor, is in the PDP but he recently helped a member of the APC to win the Dass/Tafawa Balewa/Bogoro Federal Constituency election which he had won previously in four consecutive elections. 

There is also a third candidate, Haliru Jika of the NNPP, a serving senator who defected from the APC. 

The Presidential and National Assembly elections threw up a lot of surprises. The APC won areas that were hitherto considered strongholds of the ruling party and vice versa.

However, considering the performance of the governor in infrastructure, the PDP and its governorship candidate may be coasting to victory as the people may decide to reward him for a job well done, that is, if there are no last minute surprises.

Kano: Kwakwansia movement out to oust APC

In Kano State, the battle for the governorship seat is between the ruling APC and the fast growing opposition NNPP. No doubt, it will be a fight to finish as it is going to be a replay of the 2019 election between the Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s APC and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP formerly of the PDP.

Similarly, at that time, the PDP governorship candidate and the current NNPP flag-bearer, Abba Kabir Yusuf, contested against the sitting governor, Ganduje, who was seeking re-election. This time, Yusuf is battling it out against Ganduje’s anointed candidate and incumbent Deputy Governor, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna.

However, what will likely work for the NNPP appears to be the momentum of the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly election result, which the NNPP won with over 900,000 votes to beat the ruling APC in the state. Beyond that, the NNPP also won two of the three Senate seats and 18 of the 24 House of Representatives seats in Kano to make a serious political statement that it is not a pushover.

But these political gains may be reversed if voters buy the rumour that the NNPP planned to reverse the newly-created emirates. The rumour is so strong that it is being feared that NNPP government might return Kano to a one-emirate status although the party has vigorously denied it.

But the APC may suffer some setback of its own due to the governor presenting what many political stakeholders consider as an ‘anointed candidate in the person of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, his deputy rather than allow for a free choice by the people.

There were many contenders for the slot but the governor reportedly used his influence to pick Gawuna and thereby throwing the party into avoidable political feud that has refused to die down till date.  

Others are clamouring for power to shift to Kano South on the ground that the zone has not produced a governor or deputy governor since the return to democracy in 1999. This singular factor is what precipitated the mass switching of loyalty to NNPP’s Kwankwaso as reflected in the presidential election result and which may also be repeated.

Some bigwigs in the party who defected due to the aforementioned and other grievances include, Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, Ganduje’s Chief of Staff, Ali Makoda, Abdulmumini Jibrin Kofa, Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila, Alhassan Rurum, Abdulkadir Tijjani Jobe, Muhyi Rimingado, Nura Dankadai, Nazifi Suleiman Sani Mainagge among others.

Despite these, the APC can still take the day and move Gawauna into the Government House in Kano due to its incumbency factor and the fact that Gawuna, a former Chairman of Nasarawa Local Government Area and his running mate, Murtala Sule Garo, a former ALGON Chairman and Local Government Commissioner in Kano, are widely known and respected across the 44 LGAs in the state.

These notwithstanding, the APC and NNPP need to watch out for PDP’s Wali, and ADP’s Sha’aban among others at the poll.

BENUE: Ortom’s divided PDP battles APC

At the end of the National Assembly and Presidential elections the ruling PDP in Benue State lost its overwhelming dominance to the opposition APC, which took two of the three Senate seats and 10 of the 11 House of Representatives seats. 

Though pundits have advanced several arguments as possible reasons for the fate that befell the ruling party in the state, there is no gainsaying that of all the reasons put forward the fundamental cause of the unimpressive showing of the party was the fact that members went into the elections as a divided house. 

Governor Ortom, as a member of the G-5 Governors supported power shift to the South by backing Peter Obi of Labour Party, while the three PDP Senators in the state pitched tent with Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 

At the end of the poll, a large portion of the block votes that should have gone to the PDP were shared between Mr. Obi and Atiku Abubakar. And in the midst of the confusion, the candidate of the APC, Senator Bola Tinubu garnered the largest votes and won Benue with 310,468 votes to defeat Mr. Obi polled 308,372 votes while the PDP candidate, Atiku polled 130,081 votes. 

 The divided PDP house paid the price and its leading candidates like Senator Gabriel Suswam lost his seat as well as Governor Ortom who was the toast of all to represent Benue North West District in the Senate also lost that seat to the APC candidate. It was a devastation no one saw coming. 

And with the governorship election at hand, the PDP led by Governor Ortom is now taking steps to put its house in order and placate aggrieved members. 

If that is fully achieved, then the quest for the Benue Peoples House will be a two-horse race between the PDP governorship candidate, Titus Uba, and the APC candidate, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia. 

While the PDP will be led to the “battle field” for the soul of Benue, by Governor Ortom, the APC on the other hand will be led by a former governor of the state and Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, Senator George Akume. 

The epic battle means so much to Governor Ortom who obviously sees the election as nothing but a test of his political mettle and failure to produce a successor could throw up far- reaching consequences for the PDP while the leader of APC, Sen. Akume on the other hand would want to prove that he remains a key factor in determining the choice of who governs the state. 

It will no doubt be a titanic two-horse race in Benue. 

Taraba: Too close to call

The 2023 governorship election in Taraba State is too close to call due to the calibre of those vying for the number one position and the religious hue that has always dogged the electioneering process. Unlike previous years where it used to be a two-horse race between the PDP and the APC, today’s poll has thrown up more options that have raised the stakes.

The ruling PDP is fielding Kefas Agbu, a former military officer who many see as a neophyte in Taraba’s political landscape. However, the open endorsement of Agbu by the state chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, has ruffled the feathers of opposition candidates and political watchers have described it as a major boost to his ambition to becoming the next governor. 

He is also banking on the old structure of the PDP to give him victory just like it has been since 1999. 

The main opposition APC is fielding Emmanuel Bwacha, who unlike Agbu, is a household name in Taraba politics. The victory of the APC at the centre is already a major boost to his candidacy which he has started campaigning with. 

His greatest advantage in the race is the goodwill he enjoys across the state and the bigwigs he has successfully poached from the PDP to his new party. 

While he has dismissed the endorsement of Agbu by CAN as inconsequential, his Achilles heel remains the infighting among some stakeholders of the APC who are still aggrieved after losing at the governorship primary election. His inability to come to a truce with them and forge a common front going into the election may hurt his chances. 

The duo of Sani Yahaya of the NNPP, and former minister of Labour and Productivity, Joel Ikenya of the LP are also hoping to reap from the shortcomings of the PDP and APC.

They both contested and lost the governorship ticket of the APC and PDP respectively before finding refuge in their current parties. 

YOBE: Why Buni may need to work harder for re-election

 Yobe State has been having a one-party system for many years and the current Governor, Mai Mala Buni, is seeking re-election on the APC platform while former Chairman of Bade Local Government Area, Alhaji Abdullahi Sheriff is the main contender on the platform of the opposition PDP.

Interestingly, during the last Presidential and National Assembly elections, the PDP secured the highest number of votes, 198,567, for Atiku while the APC trailed with 151,459 votes.

Although many attributed PDP’s success to the controversial Supreme Court judgment which returned the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan as APC Yobe North senatorial candidate in place of the winner of the primary election, Bashir Machina, the action has in a way boosted the chances of the PDP in the state.

Others decry the way Buni virtually abandoned the state especially during caretaker job at the APC national headquarters.

What looks like a PDP breakthrough in the state may not however be enough to send out Governor Buni from the Government House but he may need to work harder to win the hearts and minds of the voters on Saturday. What may probably help him more is the mere fact that his main challenger, Sherriff is not as popular as the governor and not from a main Kanuri majority Yobe tribe like Buni.

Another factor that may work in Buni’s favour is the incumbency element and the fact that Atiku Abubakar is no longer on the ballot as it was two week ago.

Nasarawa: APC in tough situation

In Nasarawa State, the battle to unseat the ruling APC government is taking a new dimension as the opposition PDP, SDP, LP and NNPP have teamed up to remove Governor Abdullahi Sule.  The APC is finding it more difficult to assuage some of its members who defected to the SDP in the wake of the party primaries. And this split has already affected the support base of the APC, which is a setback to Governor Sule.

To make the situation worse for the ruling APC, the opposition parties, SDP won the APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu’s Senatorial seat and the Northern senatorial seats, while the opposition PDP unseated Umaru Tanko AlMakura from the Nasarawa South Senatorial seat in the February 25 polls thereby weakening the strength of the ruling APC in Nasarawa State.

Governor Abdullahi Sule, who is seeking re-election in Nasarawa State is not only battling with the inter party wrangling, but is also confronted with external party crisis making the political atmosphere dicey for the government in power in the state. 

Will Adamawa produce the first female governor in Nigeria?

The Governorship election in Adamawa State seems to be one of the most dicey and interesting among the states in the country because of the fact that Adamawa is the only state in Nigeria where a female governorship candidate is vying against a man seeking re-election.

While Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of the PDP is seeking re-election, Senator Aishatu Dahiru (Binani) of the APC is trying to write history by seeking to become the first female governor to emerge from a competitive election. Governor Fintiri feels secure and hopeful of winning the state due the fact that he comes from the same state with Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the PDP and appears to enjoy unrivaled support from his people. But the Labour Party candidate, Eng. Umar Abubakar, is also hopeful of taking the day given the fact that Peter Obi made a serious inroad into the state during the presidential election.

Ahmadu Fintiri, nicknamed ‘ATM governor’ and ‘project master’ by Adamawa workers, is a candidate to beat at the election. There is no doubt that the governor has performed well as judged by his admirers in terms of project execution, especially urban, semi-urban and rural road networks.

Katsina: APC the party to beat

In Katsina State, the PDP was the party to beat before the Saturday 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections despite the lingering crisis and division in the party. But with the outcome of the recently concluded elections, that no longer seems to be tenable. 

However, there is no denying the fact that only APC and PDP have genuine political structures across the 34 LGAs of the state and the result of the presidential election gives credence to this as over 80 percent of the total votes cast went for both APC and PDP while less than 20 percent was shared among the other 12 political parties who participated in the election.

There was however a lot of conspiracy against the ruling APC by its bigwigs who dumped the party despite the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari, the President and leader of the APC hails from Katsina. The gang up by anti-party elements in the Masari led government already has caused some political appointees their positions. Among them are a commissioner, permanent secretaries and heads of parastatals. 

 But in spite of the split in ranks within the ruling APC, the Katsina Governor, Aminu Masari-led government was able to win the three senatorial seats and nine of the 15 slots in the House of Representatives in the state. The victory seems to have strengthened the APC in Katsina ahead of the governorship election.

Niger State: Anger against APC may help PDP

No fewer than 12 governorship candidates are chasing one seat in Niger State and the issues of ethnic and tribal sentiments are likely to come into play. Niger State has three senatorial districts: Zone A which is the Nupe-speaking, zone B which is for the Gwaris and zone C which is for the Hausa-speaking people.

For political exigencies, equity and fairness and political balancing, some of the political parties that had emerged in the state had agreed on a zoning formula that would give equal opportunities to each zone to produce governor on rotational basis in order to give everyone a sense of belonging.

This unwritten but gentleman’s agreement had made the state politically unique and without any crisis especially at the point of electing their governorship candidates.

One of the political parties that introduced this zoning formula is the PDP since 1999 and the agreement has been working effectively since inception.

This step had in one way or the other forced other emerging political parties to also base the election of their candidates on this zoning formula.

For the governorship election, the leading parties include the ruling APC, PDP, LP, APGA, and NNPP.            .

However, of all the parties, only three are fully on ground. Before now, Niger had been known to be a two-party state but the recent emergence of Obi of the Labour Party has changed the narrative and political atmosphere of the state.

However, the contest appears to centre around Umar Mohammed Bago of the APC, a two-time Federal lawmaker representing Chanchaga Constituency, aged 49.

Bago, who has the support of the outgoing Governor Bello, is also banking on the massive support of the youthful population in the state, who he has supported with empowerment programmes over the years.

But some Niger State indigenes are upset with the APC as a whole for many of its policies that have brought hardship on them and they may want to vent their anger against APC.

The anger may pave way for Alhaji Isah Liman Kantigi of the PDP, a former Edati Local Government Chairman who headed the Local Government Chairmen Forum before becoming Commissioner of Local government and Chieftaincy Affairs during the immediate past administration.

Zamfara: Banditry a challenge to APC’s Matawalle

The battle for the Governorship seat in Zamfara State is between the APC and the main opposition PDP.

While the incumbent Governor, Bello Matawalle of the APC is seeking his second term, the PDP Dauda Lawal is all out to oust him. Notable issue that will work against the sitting APC governor is the lingering issue of insecurity (banditry), economic situation and the fact that the party is not that strong in Central zone of the state due to the presence of former Information Minister under former President, late Umaru Musa Yar’adu’a, Ikra Aliyu Bilbis (PDP Senatorial candidate) and also member representing Gusau/Tsafe in House of Representatives, Kabiru Ahmadu Mai Palace. Ironically, Matawalle had joined the APC, hoping that the Federal Government would help him fight insecurity. Failure to do that is now haunting him.

But what may work for him is simply power of incumbency. Again, the party now enjoys a united front with the likes of former governors of the state, Sen. Ahmad Sani Yerima Bakura, Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi and Abdulaziz Yari all back to work for the party.

On the other hand, the PDP candidate, Dauda Lawal is said to stand a better chance as one from Gusau (the state capital and Central zone) and the fact that there has been clamour for power shift to the Central zone since 1999.

It is believed the West has enjoyed a larger share of power. It has so far produced three governors who ruled for 20 years. The North produced one governor who ruled for four years while the Central was left with none.