By Sunny Ikhioya 

Any body who has eyes and could see, ears and  could hear, will be wondering at this moment what has become of the nation of Nigeria.

It does not require rocket science, if there is no law and order all through the length and breadth of the country, there cannot be any election, except the people want to perform abracadabra.

  It is just three days to the 2023 presidential election and we still do not know where we are going. There is confusion in the ruling Apc, Aso rock cabal versus the candidate Ahmed Bola Tinubu  and his supporters. Another area to watch is the body language of the northern  elders. Governor El Rufai had claimed that the governors are now the elders of the north, will the real elders of the north accept this claim or reveal their true strength in the coming elections? We wait and see.

There is also confusion in the camp of the main opposition PDP, with the activities of the G5 governors. Marry this with the confusion in the land, no fuel, no money. How INEC will  manoeuvre all of these land mines, set on its path, and come up with a credible election, will be one of the wonders of the 21st century,  for as it is, its like the whole thing is wired to fail.

We have heard of conspiracies in the recent years, about the manner the Buhari presidency will end. Some have predicted this kind of ending, where there will be confusion in the land, leaving room for non democratic actors but, thank God that, by his action, the President has shown sincere willingness to hand over power democratically  through his actions and body language. President Buhari has set up a transition team and all eyes are now fixated on May 29th date for the official handing over of power to a new government. 

Amidst the confusion, the question everyone is asking is; Will the election hold or not? Will his willingness to hand over be enough to pacify doubting Thomases? The question is pertinent because there appears to be nothing on ground to instil confidence in the people. Already, I have encountered ordinary citizens who have cancelled their scheduled travel plans for the elections because nobody can predict what will happen.

As it is today  you do not want to be held down in one place by the- much anticipated – after election activities, especially as it concerns dissatisfied citizens. Is there hope for a free and fair elections as things now stand? Will there be money available for people to feed and also transport themselves to wherever they want? Will the fuel queues disappear to allow for stress free movements? These are the issues on ground, issues that will determine whether the elections will hold successfully or not. Feelers from INEC and all security agencies concerned with the elections, confirm that they are ready but, with barely three days more to the election, what are peoples perception?

If on the long run the election did hold successfully, my projection is that the ruling APC will clinch it,  that is; if the Buhari or Aso rock apc will allow the Tinubu Apc to be. What we are witnessing is novel, we have not seen it happen in the past, for a ruling party candidate to be challenging the policies of his party in government.  The disagreement is so strong that they are taking themselves to court  Apc governors taking Apc federal government to court  what an aberration! The OBIdients will not like this but this is the week, to prove whether they have been all noise on social media or the real deal. For the south east, we have not seen it happen since the time of Nnamdi Azikiwe’s NCNC,  where a candidate that is accepted by other regions is facing the most challenges from his own people, through criminal activities and sabotage of leaders. It doesn’t look like the south east have forcefully supported their candidate,  they are waiting for others to project their candidate for them, which is very disappointing. 

 They have not been able to rein in those elements that have caused senseless killings and destructions all these while. By the use of terror by non state elements, innocent citizens will find it difficult to be motivated to come out and vote. Charity must begin at home , if Peter Obi cannot use his influence to rein in these elements, it will be difficult to convince others. Papa Adebanjo, Afenifere leader, Chief EK Clark, south south leader  have both made this point very clear to all but the supporters of Peter Obi are not ready to consider these factors as a possible archilles heels for their candidate, they will tell you that it does not matter, at the end of the day, all of these little factors will count.

Atiku’s way was clear to victory with a united south south and south east, how he managed to bungle all the good will he has garnered in these regions, will remain a post election topic for students of politics and researchers. As it stands now, the PDP appears to be the most weakened amongst the three leading parties. Some have argued that the northern elders will gather themselves and their people behind the  Atiku, that  will make an interesting  scenerio  with the apc governors behind Tinubu. He will definitely lose ground in the south south and south east regions because of the peoples support for Peter Obi. So, that is the projection,  is there any area you can rearrange to benefit your candidate? Well, you have just two days to do that, the choice is yours and goodluck to Nigeria, it definitely will be well with us