THE proposed alliance between Peter Obi, the former Governor of Anambra State, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former Governor of Kano State, collapsed before it got off the drawing board. Having both abandoned their memberships of mainstream parties (PDP and APC), they are presenting themselves as reformist, change-focussed presidential candidates of integrity-focused fringe parties (Obi’s Labour Party and Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party).

Those who favoured an alliance said that because Obi and Kwankwaso are popular in different parts of the country, they could greatly fortify each other and win the election if they joined hands and if one of them agreed to be running mate rather than flagbearer. This argument appeared to make sense and many pundits and onlookers totally bought into it. But I begged to differ because I don’t regard Obi and Kwankwaso as equals within this context.

Based on what I’ve been told by friends who have access to the results of opinion polls that have not been made public, I believe that Obi has many more fans than Kwankwaso; and I think that he has more fans because he is more unorthodox politically than Kwankwaso and, therefore, more of a breath of fresh air.

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My view is that Obi is more attractive to the millions of idealistic Nigerians who are desperate for a new type of leadership. I am not saying that Kwankwaso – who undoubtedly possesses certain strengths – is a bad guy or inferior to Obi on every level.

I am just saying that he does not possess the same TYPE of credibility that Obi possesses and that when I look at the two men, what I see is a chalk and cheese scenario. And I could of course be wrong – I’m not a fortune teller! – but I reckon that the TYPE of person who is drawn to Obi is not going to instinctively be drawn to Kwankwaso. Just as the TYPE of person who is drawn to Kwankwaso is not going to automatically warm to Obi.

Long story short: I reckon that Obi would have lost supporters in droves if he had hitched his wagon to Kwankwaso’s, even if he had gotten the better end of the deal and wound up as the senior half of a joint ticket. Kwankwaso might also have lost supporters in droves if he’d been the principal or secondary partner in an Obi coalition. 

Long story short: I am mightily relieved that the proposed alliance between the Anambra Activist and the Kano Kingpin didn’t materialise. And so are a lot of the OBIdient folks I know. Now there is news of Obi running with Yusuf Datti Baba Ahmed, a youngish entrepreneur, intellectual, philanthropist, economist and former legislator who has a track record of condemning corruption.

And I’ve noticed that the type of people who are praying for Obi are much more enthusiastic about this possible pairing because there is something fresh and exciting and different about Baba Ahmed…who shares Obi’s talent for creating income streams  

OK, so Baba Ahmed is a novice compared to Kwankwaso; and his fan club is nowhere near as densely populated as Kwankwaso’s. He also does not control a substantial network of passionate disciples.

Some onlookers are, therefore, still insisting that Obi can only win if he attaches himself to a more heavyweight Northern politician who can provide him with the structure that the Labour Party lacks, penetrate zones he cannot penetrate and secure the allegiance of Northern Muslims who wouldn’t normally vote for an Igbo Christian.

But I don’t think that Obi needs a traditional political structure or a veteran political partner to win. I think he can triumph with an atypical running mate who has no history of massively benefitting from the system and will appeal to Obi fans who like clean slates. I could be wrong; but I vehemently disagree with pessimists who say that Obi can perhaps win in 2027 or 2031 but doesn’t stand a chance of beating seasoned Babas like Atiku and Tinubu in 2023.

Almost everything is going wrong in Nigeria. As I write, hundreds of dangerous inmates of Abuja’s Kuje prison are at large. And the hoodlums who kidnapped Kaduna railway passengers three months ago are threatening to start slaughtering their captives. And Mr. President’s convoy was attacked in Katsina and a deputy commissioner of police there was assassinated. And the brain drain is in full flood.

Two of the highly competent nurses who used to look after my sick mother have emigrated to Canada and the Caribbean this year. Meanwhile, we are struggling with raging inflation. My “NEPA” bill has increased by 400 percent in a year and food is increasingly expensive.

The British have just forced their Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to resign for misdemeanours that are almost laughably minor compared to the crimes that VIPs get away with in this country; and Naija nightmares will only end when Nigerians stop behaving like mumus, say “enough is enough” and insist on superior leadership.   

Obi, for now at least, appears to be completely different from the usual suspects, as in allergic to greed and genuinely interested in efficiency and citizen welfare; and he can definitely become our President in 2023 with the right kind of running mate at his side.

I see Real Change on the horizon. I see Baba Ahmed  impressing and galvanising the disillusioned and hungry in his zone. I see the Obi Phenomenon gaining more and more traction. I see his bandwagon gaining more and more and more momentum.

I see People Power prevailing and voters refusing to be deceived and trampled on by big boys who are better at cronyism than governance and by political parties that have woefully failed them in the past.

I see suffering and frightened Nigerians telling the big boys that those who own structures and have experience should go because they have presided over a terrifying escalation in insecurity and not delivered economic stability or round-the-clock electricity or jobs or hope or dignity. I see a Soft Revolution coming.

Am I indulging in naïve wishful thinking? Maybe. But why should I not dare to dream of a brighter tomorrow? I’m told that some of Baba Ahmed’s brethren are urging him not to help Obi pull in Northern votes. I hope he politely ignores them.  

RESPONSES TO  donzol2002@yahoo.co.uk  or to 0805 404 6887. PLEASE KINDLY NOTE THAT UNLESS YOU REQUEST ANONYMITY, YOUR EMAIL OR TEXT MAY BE PUBLISHED WITH YOUR NAME AND CONTACT DETAILS ATTACHED.

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