THE gubernatorial poll that held in my state last Saturday was not just about electing the successor to the “Unusual Governor” Rauf Argebesola whose tenure will never be forgotten for the many unusual experiences  of the state of the Living Spring under him. It was equally a test of the seriousness of the opposition for the 2019 election.

The Lagos- trained  politician has spent almost eight years now using the Lagos model of the past  20 years with a rural state that lacks the resources of the Mega City and the scorecard has been disastrous with Osun reeling under O’debt like the Aquatic City.

The Fiscal Responsibility Commission, FRC, in its 2016 showed how South West states top the list of most indebted states in Nigeria with Lagos and Osun being the most notorious.The report stated that five of the six states in the South West are among the top seven states with worrisome debt to revenue ratio. According to the report, Lagos, Osun and Cross River states have debts over 480 per cent of their gross revenues, while those of 18 states exceed their revenues by more than 200 percent.

The report said: “In the light of the DMO’s guidelines on the Debt Management Framework, specifically, sections 222 to 273 of the Investment and Securities Act, 2007 pertaining to debt sustainability, according to the guidelines, the debt to income ratio of states should not exceed 50 percent of the statutory revenue for the preceding 12 months.”

Many states, however, flouted the DMO’s directive, with their debt status exceeding the debt to revenue ratio by more than 100 per cent. An analysis of the debt profiles of the states, as at December 31, 2016, shows that South West states top the list of states with worrisome debt to revenue ratio. Lagos, Osun, and Oyo made the top five, followed by Ekiti and Ogun states in sixth and seventh positions respectively. The report showed that states with the highest debt to gross revenue ratios were Lagos (670.42 percent), Osun (539.25 percent), Cross River (486.49 percent), Plateau (342.01 percent) and Oyo (339.56 percent). Others are Ekiti (339.34 percent), Ogun (329.47 percent), Kaduna (297.26 percent), Imo (292.82 percent), Edo (270.8 percent), Adamawa (261.96 percent), Delta (259.63 percent), Bauchi (250.75 percent), Nasarawa (250.36 percent), Kogi (221.92 percent), Enugu (207.49 per cent), Zamfara (204.91 per cent), and Kano (202.61 per cent). The debt to net revenue ratio of Lagos puts the state in even more precarious situation. Analysis shows that the debt to net revenue ratio of Lagos, for instance, is 930.96 percent.

The Lagos model in Osun was a litany of woes as salaries of workers were owed for several months with the attendant suffering. I will never forget the spectacle  of a classmate of mine who is a Director in Osun Civil service. I ran into him about three years ago. I almost prostrated to greet him when he mentioned his name.He was so aged with only his ears stopping his cap from covering his face. His eyes were sunken and cheeks hollow. My friend was a specimen of what life became in my land of birth under Governor Aregbesola.

I learnt from impeccable sources that the Governor sometime ago approached the National Economic Council to have the state debt rescheduled to 50 years. The request which was said to have the blessing of the Vice-President who has been mentioned to be part of the Lagos group who left imprints in Osun State met with resistance from fellow governors who queried why a state would have to use 50 years to pay debts for an eight-year tenure.

In settled climes, the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, should not have a freaking chance in last Saturday elections, the way the naive may think the failures of the party at the national level would translate automatically  to its defeat at the polls next year on their own.

That the elections turned out a keenly contested one between the APC and the People’s  Democratic Party, PDP, was an eloquent testimony to the fact that the contest for power in our clime is still largely influenced by factors outside performance, a lesson the Osun election should teach the opposition that has not fully grasped these tips from Lesson 101 in electoral contest especially under the enemies of open society.

It was a bad strategy for the opposition that knew its onions to have gone into the Saturday election  fragmented as they were without playing into the hands of the ruling party but for the readiness of the residents who were ready to say O’dabo(bye) to the most punishing government in the history of the State.

That signal on the resolve of the people was sent when thousands trooped on the streets of Osogbo to protest the misspeak of the National Leader of the Party who hailed from the State but rules over Lagos.He had in the course of his visit to the Ataoja  of Osogbo opened his mouth too wide by declaring that he was richer than Osun state and that we don’t have what can attract stealing proclivity.The angry protesters who stormed the streets chanted :

 Osun o ki n se Ekiti(2ce) …Osun is not Ekiti

Ki Tinubu ma hale mo wa….Tinubu should not threaten us

Osun o ki n se Ekiti-Osun is not Ekiti

That they proved on Saturday by holding APC to ransom and giving victory to the PDP, a victory which has now been suspended by declaring the election inconclusive. I expect the winner to challenge the directive in court as the law is settled that cancelled ballots are dead materials that cannot be resurrected in the life of an electoral contest.

That the election was also a referendum on the Aregbesola years more than the opposition’s preparation  in the state manifested clearly as the APC lost in most areas of Ijesaland which was supposed to be the governor’s stronghold.

The PDP won Obokun LGA by a large margin 10,859 votes to 7,229 garnered by the APC. But APC won the Ilesa East with 9790 votes. PDP got 8244 votes. APC also lost Ilesha West LGA to PDP, getting 7251 votes to PDP’s 8286 votes.

However, the APC won Atakumosa East by polling 7073 votes to PDP’s 5218 votes. PDP snatched Atakumosa West, polling 5401 votes to APC’s 5019 votes.

Just like Aregbesola, Chief Bisi Akande also narrowly won his Ila Local government by  fewer than 200 votes. While APC got 8401 votes, the PDP made it a cheek and jowl affair, polling 8241 votes. The polling unit of the Interim Chair of APC at its formation was however lost to the PDP.

While the contest between getting a declaration of the winner of Saturday polls and holding supplementary elections is still on, the opposition must take a few lessons from  the first post-Daura ejection. By the way, I have spoken with diplomatic contacts who were on ground during the Ekiti elections who confirmed the sacked DG of DSS practically determined the outcome of the Ekiti polls.

The chief lesson for the opposition to learn from the Osun election is that going towards 2019 elections, it would be foolhardy to place individual ambitions above the focus of effecting a leadership change. In Osun state, Adeleke and Omisore were in the same party until the inability of the PDP to manage its strong members.If you added Omisore and Adeleke votes in Osun,the difference would have been clear and wide. Before Saturday, it was as if many Governors would emerge from the contest with the opposition candidates not being able to build consensus.

The earlier the opposition knows that it is one President that would be elected in 2019 and start to bury their ego and identify one of them who can go forward for the college, the brighter the chances. I have travelled round the country in recent times and confronted with sight of chartered jets of  Presidential hopefuls scattered everywhere. I marveled as resources they could pool together for the epic challenge are being frittered away on ego trips.

The Economist Magazine  of London has made a poignant forecast about the 2019 elections. According to the magazine, “The 2019 elections will be a close contest between the ruling APC and the PDP. We expect the PDP presidential candidate to win, but for the next administration to flounder against the same problems as the incumbent one.”

The People of Osun have brought home the reality of that prediction by showing that the APC is beatable  in spite of holding all the apparatus of electoral process and that the teacher will show up when the class is ready. A fragmented opposition however will not be up to the task.The earlier elements in the position realised it’s better to have any % of 100 than owing 100% of zero,the better for them and the polity.

Re:Kemi Adeosun: A denouement

DEAR  Yinka, thanks for the above subject. I really empathise and sympathise with her. Her action shows that there are still Nigerians who have not lost their “rational and moral compass”. She is a woman of courage. While appreciating her boldness in  carrying out her duties and also to resign her appointment, I suggest she should go a step further to enlist in the NYSC and do the  one year compulsory service. As a true anti corruption torch bearer ( that is what she is to me),she should also deduct  the NYSC allowance for one year from the salaries she got and return the balance to the common purse.

This decision can be difficult to take and implement, but doing so will make her an unforgettable positive role model to young and old Nigerians who believe that there are still honest, truthful and hard working people among us. My stand is that it is because of such people who have not lost their” rational and moral compass” that God has not allowed Nigeria to fall off the peak of the mountain. So there is hope.

One  important lesson we can learn from her case is for us to beware of  associates who lead us into temptations that will rubbish us. Kemi Adeosun should remember that the down fall of a man is not his end. What is important is to rise when one falls. Life must go on. She should take time to study and reflect on the lines of ” Fall to Rise ” which you reproduced in your article.

Thank you again.

Tony O. Ekwe.