By Godwin Etakibuebu

THE fact was established that Ahmed Bola Tinubu, through very uncommon and legendary display of political wizardry, put together the All Progressives Congress, APC, almost single-handedly – a feat not too rampant in the annals of political parties formation in Nigeria. The only person who could be accommodated in the arena of this type of feat would be the late Chief Jeremiah Obafemi Awolowo.

Yet, while Awolowo’s creation could not encrypt beyond the region of his Yoruba ethnic group of the Western Region (now South West), Tinubu’s endeavours almost collapsed the whole Nigerian state into one political unit except for ethnic nationalities mostly in the South/South and South/East.

He succeeded where Awolowo failed, so it looked like. However, there must be one or two lessons Tinubu failed to learn from his political father – Awolowo. And it is in my candid opinion that his inability to learn these lessons may turn his lucrative future political dream into a monumental political doom.

Tinubu, ACN leader

One of such lessons may be found in greed. Obafemi Awolowo, at most times, aggregated most prime offices of the political parties he founded to himself. For example, he was the Chairman of the Party and at the same time Presidential candidate – this worked against him because others saw it as greed. How about Bola Tinubu? He nominated Professor Yemi Osibanjo from the South/West (Tinubu’s own geopolitical zone) as the Vice-President, which was never contested. He went further by dictating (nominating) Senator Ahmed Lawan (form the North East geopolitical zone) as Senate President and Femi Gbajabiamila from Tinubu’s South West geopolitical zone as Speaker, House of Representative.

This “grab and grab” of one man became one greed carried too far and it was resisted at the “appropriate time” when the table was turned against him as Senator Bukola Saraki and Honourable Yakubu Dogara became Senate President and Speaker, House of Representative, respectively, in a grandiose coup. On this fact, Tinubu became a casualty of what bankers call “over investment” which, according to investment banking experts, could lead to “economic crash”. In the same manner, even in politics, Tinubu has crashed from the sailing ship of the APC, ipso facto.

Another lesson Tinubu did not learn from Obafemi Awolowo is his inability to identify Nigeria’s geopolitical zone that betrayed the former and thwarted every of his presidential ambition. I am talking of the geopolitical zone that made him (Awolowo) “The best president Nigeria never had” , in the written tribute of Ikemba Odumegwu Ojukwu, during his condolence visit to the house of the sage when he died.

For not learning to know those who betrayed his forbearer most, the long existing adage of the Urhobo people of the Niger Delta region, which says that “a child who failed to find out the details of what killed his father is most likely to die a more horrible death than his father”, may apply to him. If this is properly evaluated, Asiwaju Tinubu may as well be on the path of political perfidy as he prepares for the presidency of Nigeria.

There are other reasons, apart from the lessons that Tinubu did not learn from Obafemi Awolowo, that would make his expectation of becoming Nigeria’s president, either in 2019 or 2023,  a great mirage. This man is too brilliant not to know the role of geopolitical calculations vis-à-vis ‘allocation’ of the Nigerian presidency. Olusegun Obasanjo; a “principality and power” in the Nigerian political terrain, from the South West geopolitical zone, served out two-terms of eight years tenure, which ended in 2007.

How therefore can  Tinubu, another man from the same South West geopolitical zone ascend to the Nigerian presidency within the short interval of less than ten years at the expense of other geopolitical zones? That cannot be possible except it remains the wild dream of a man who over-rates himself.  We can still adduce one more reason, amongst others, why Tinubu’s ambition of becoming Nigeria’s president may remain an evaporative dream.

If the truth must be told, my  brothers from the chore north of Nigeria may not have trusted a Yoruba man that much to handover a golden spoon of the presidency to him. If Tinubu concludes that since Obasanjo got it in 1999, he too can get it now, then he is a catastrophe in the permutation and manipulation game of the Nigerian political undertaking. Obasanjo was made President by the top Military Generals recently revealed to be “the Military wing of the People Democratic Party”.

This military wing, comprised the likes of Generals Ibrahim Babaginda, Abdulsalam Abubakar and others, did what they did for one of theirs, albeit their most senior military colleague on one hand and to enable them (the military mafia) manipulate the Nigerian political enterprise into remaining, devilishly of course, within the domain of the PDP for sixty years, on the other. Ibrahim Babaginda confessed this a few days ago. Unfortunate though, Bola Tinubu may be “Jagaban” of South West politics but he has no roots in this “military setup” to repeat Obasanjo’s feat.

Finally, his own brother, Olusegun Obasanjo would be waiting to cut him  to size if such opportunity ever beckons  because Obasanjo hardly forgives and I suspect  Tinubu is one man remaining in Obasanjo’s  bad book.

It is only wise for Bola Tinubu to bury the thought of becoming Nigeria’s President because it is a bad dream that can never come true.