NIGERIAN Meteorological Agency, NiMET, has achieved 80 per cent accuracy in its annual Seasonal Rainfall Prediction, SRP, and this level of accuracy is significantly higher than the acceptable World Meteorological Organization minimum acceptable threshold of 60 per cent.

This was revealed at  2017 SRP presentation event in Abuja by the outgoing Director General of NiMET, Dr. Anthony Anuforom, while highlighting some points about the development of seasonal rainfall predictions since his appointment as director general of NiMET 2007.

Outgoing DG of NiMET, Dr Anthony Anuforom

Anuforom said this new accuracy has increased the confidence of stakeholders and the general consumers of the yearly rainfall predictions. He also said “the SRP now include dates when it is safe to sow crops, how long the season will last and quality of the seasons in terms of dry spells during the cropping season. This type of forecast has practically minimized guess work about when to plant and reduced chances of crop failure.

“In this new approach to seasonal prediction, we have also included temperature, heat stress and experimental malaria forecasts for livestock and human health management. Given this cutting-edge improvement, NiMET SRP has gained national and international acceptability and has earned the agency great respect even at World Meteorological Organization, WMO, level. WMO cited an analysis in NiMET’s 2013 SRP in its publication with the title “The Climate in Africa: 2013”, he said.

Speaking about the evolution of the seasonal rainfall prediction, Anuforom said the production of seasonal rainfall outlook has been a tradition in the old Department of Meteorological Service that later became NiMET. He said the nation used to receive the rainfall forecast in geographical segments.

“The southern part of the country received its first forecast, few months later middle belt and lastly in May or there about the northern belt. Thus the lead time of this forecast was just about a month, making it practically difficult for policy making. The accuracy and applicability were also limited and therefore it did not adequately address the specific climate information needs of farmers.

“When I took over the leadership of the agency, I, therefore, initiated the development of a new forecast methodology that has given us a more accurate SRP with longer lead time, thereby making it a valuable and useful tool for planning and decision-making in climate sensitive sectors of the economy.”

The outgoing DG has been credited with bringing technological innovation to the operational efficiency of the agency.

On his assumption of office in 2007, NiMET had only 36 weather observatory stations across the country. Now the  outgoing  DG  is leaving the agency with 54 stations equipped with modern facilities scattered across the country which has made weather predictions more accurate and reliable.

To man these stations are well motivated and trained work force who hitherto had very low morale and self esteem before the  resumption of Anuforum as the Director General in 2007.

The new motivation is a direct fall out of better remuneration and training, both locally and internationally. And this has been complemented by well equipped digital library and computer room.

To supplement revenue from government, the agency has embarked on aggressive internally generated revenue, IGR, by commercializing some of the services the agency renders.

It currently has meteorological partnership agreements with some states government in Nigeria and some West Africa countries. Liberia and Gambia currently rely on weather information from NiMET. And this agreement has been acknowledged by World Meteorological Organization, WMO. According to Anuforum: “Revenue from government is drying up. So we needed to do something to generate revenue.

So we have a well-structured commercialization initiative. Presently, the bulk or our revenue, probably 90% comes from what we get from aviation. And even that is mergre compared to other agencies. I will give you an example, we get part of the landing charges collected by FAAN, only 10%. The other one is on route and over flight charges coming collected by NAMA, the third one is the ticket sales charge collected by NCAA”

“ Look at the mergre percentage compared to other agencies. So we cannot keep doing that, we said okay we can now venture into other sectors. We have the maritime sector, we said to ourselves, that we have many ships coming in and out of Nigerian ports and they need weather. Where are they getting weather information from? They are getting it from their home countries. So we have now started the process of having an MoU with NIMASA s that we can give weather information and forecast to shipping lines. We started it long ago, we have perfected the Mou.”

As the transition from the tenure of Doctor Anthony Anuforom to the new Director General, Professor Sani Abubakar Mashi ends this March, aviation stakeholders are of the view that a good foundation has been laid by the out going DG for the new DG to build on and make NiMET the envy of the Africa region.