By Dele Sobowale

The most obstinate illusions are ultimately broken by facts.” Trevor Roper. (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 100).

“…every Nigerian is now sober. The governors have realized now that this can happen and that oil prices can plummet from $100 to $28 within a short period of time, and that we can be so exposed that we can’t even pay salaries…”So there is a sobriety that has come in. So, we are working with the states and we are not bailing them out. We have said to them that we have a fiscal restructuring plan…”Whatever we are   doing will be conditional. Mrs   Adeosun, Federal Minister of Finance, May 5, 2016.

Last week, in the second part of a two-part series titled “BAILING OUT STATES: FGs EXERCISE IN FUTILITY”, there was a small error. Osun State was accused of engaging 1000 Special Assistants. My attention had been drawn to the error. Those employed were not called Special Assistants. The error is deeply regretted.

However, the central point of the article remains intact, namely, that the states of Nigeria cannot borrow their way out of their present predicament and the Federal Government lacks the financial capacity to help them. In fact, this column might as well have been titled FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CASTS STATES ADRIFT and it will be just as apt.

The reason is simple. The Federal government is itself a beggar on the financial markets and cannot help itself. At any rate, it is poor financial management to borrow to pay salaries and wages which constitute consumption. Borrowing should only be done to fund projects that would help liquidate the loan.

Last month, the governors of the states of Nigeria went cap in hand to beg for another round of bail-outs even when there were question marks regarding how some of them spent the first one received. They were in jovial mood after the event. The smiles would be wiped off their faces now.   The Minister of Finance like all political appointees while   also stating that the Federal Government was working to reduce its N165 billion monthly wage and pension bill was quick to state that sacking workers was not a first option.

That should be regarded as politician’s promises which “like pie-crusts are made to be broken.” (VBQ p 203). Economists know that there is no way any significant reduction in wage and pension bill can be achieved without down-sizing the Federal establishment – which still includes thousands of idle people. Anyone who has ever stepped into any Ministry in Abuja will observe how many “workers” have nothing to do for hours.

That explains why it has been possible for workers living outside Abuja to come to work three days in the week and their absence is not even noticed. The Minister is entitled to her illusions; but, reality will soon disabuse her of the notion that down-sizing can be avoided. As excuse for not wanting to make the tough decision, she stated, emotionally, “To address an economy takes time; a government cannot just come up and sack people, These are human beings and these are people who have responsibilities..”

Governor Yari, Chairman of the Nigerian Governor’s Forum, NGF, made a similar remark when the governors got a one month moratorium from monthly deductions for bail-out received. They had gone to ask for 18-month moratorium. According to him, “we cannot say we are going to cut salaries and wages” because these are human beings. Obviously, when governors travel to China, USA, Japan, Brazil, Abu Dhabi in search of phantom investors, they forget that the funds thrown away could be used to pay the salaries of human beings in their employment.

Last week, the point was made that there was no governor in office in 2015 who did not dip his hands into the state’s funds to finance his party’s election campaign. Former governors and Ministers, in the Federal government, who now gloat over the exposure of the PDP’s corrupt utilization of the nation’s scarce resources, are just being hypocritical. None of them will escape indictment if the accounts of the units they presided over were probed. Was it because they were not aware that the owners of the funds they were wrongly appropriating are human beings?

At any rate, Doyin Okupe, whose justly earned reputation for rascality prevents people from listening to him carefully, has raised a vital point. He had asked why governments at the three levels, Federal, State and Local Government, seem to be totally pre-occupied with civil servants who constitute less than five (5) per cent of the population and are prepared to render their states insolvent on their account without giving a thought to the 95 per cent, or the Silent Majority? Is it because the 5% are human beings and the 95% are not? More to the point, is it fair to all concerned? It is doubtful.

Now that the states have been told in plain language to go and solve their own problems and leave the Federal Government out of it, one is at a loss regarding how they intend to go about satisfying the demands of those human beings working for them.

Fortunately, the states still have a way out; if only they will be courageous enough to consider that option. It will call for the APC controlled states to confront the Federal Government by asking for reparations instead of bail-out. They should be asking for their money instead of begging for alms. But, will they have the guts to do it?