All eyes are on today’s pronouncement of a Federal High Court sitting in Abuja on the outcome of penultimate Saturday’s governorship election in Kogi State. How the court rules would determine whether or not tomorrow’s scheduled supplementary election to conclude the November 21 governorship election go ahead.

By Kingsley Fanwo

The Kogi governorship election has not been short of drama, intrigues and constitutional logjam. The drama of the impending loss by an incumbent governor, Capt. Idris Wada of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP was overshadowed by the controversial death of the leading candidate in the governorship election, Prince      Abubakar Audu of the All Progressives Congress, APC. Audu was believed to have died before the election results were announced but news of the death was not made public until shortly after the election was declared inconclusive.

However, the timing of Audu’s death was believed to have been politicized as family sources claimed the late politician died in the early hours of Sunday, November 22, 2015. Analysts believed his death was hidden to ensure the election became “inconclusive” and give a section of the country some political mileage for substitution.

The Independent National Electoral Commission wouldn’t accept such insinuations, as it claimed elections in the affected areas were legitimately cancelled.

With the dust surrounding the replacement of the late Prince Abubakar Audu settling, attention is gradually shifting to the supplementary poll which will be held across 91 polling units in 19 Local Government Areas of the state. Only Mopamuro and Yagba East Local Government Areas would not be having a rerun. The supplementary election will feature the 22 political parties and their candidates which participated in the main election of November 21, with the only exception being Alh. Yahaya Bello, who is the new candidate of the APC.

As expected, the contest will be a direct battle between Bello of the APC and Wada of the PDP.

How they Stand

KOGI EAST – 37,980

Wada

Though Kogi East senatorial zone has just about half of the total number of registered voters in the state, the zone, however, more than two-thirds of the cancelled votes came from the area. The reason is mainly because the two major candidates Audu and Wada are from the area and hence the strong battle and intrigues that led to the disproportionate cancellation of the votes in the area.

Of the 49,989 votes at stake, Kogi East still boasts of 37,980 votes, representing approximately 76 percent of the votes. With Wada remaining the only hope of the East retaining power, it would not be surprising if he clears almost all the votes in the area.

However, with just about 25,000 of the 37,980 registered voters having Permanent Voter Cards, PVCs, Wada’s ability to narrow the 41,000 gap between him and the late Audu is much limited. Even more, voter turnout among the 25,000 PVC holders may not be more than 60% giving him a maximum of about 15,000 votes.

It is this projection that may have compelled Wada and the PDP to favour the court action of having INEC declare him winner on the basis of the fact he is the candidate with the highest number of votes among the living candidates.

Going by the acrimony which greeted the choice of Bello, pundits are not giving him much chance to pull strings in the zone.

Kogi Central

Kogi Central with 4,619 votes outstanding is expected to be mopped up by Bello being his stronghold. He hails from Agassa in Okene Township. Kogi Central is expected to do what is known as “solidarity ballot” in political circles to ensure power shifts to the central. The APC is highly favoured to win convincingly here. Kogi West will be as unpredictable as it has always been, politically, since the Second Republic. The 7,390 votes expected here, representing 15 percent of the total number of supplementary votes, may split.

-Bello

While many will vote in favour of power shift, others are bitter that Faleke, an Okun man was denied of clinching the ticket of the APC. Faleke was the running mate of the late Prince Abubakar Audu.

His decision to drag the party to court as well as his refusal to be running mate to Yahaya Bello may have political implications for the APC in Kogi West. But if a threat by the PDP to boycott the poll is anything to go by, INEC may have no choice than to go ahead with the election.

However, it is unlikely that the APC will lose the election. The party needs only 5000 votes from the available 49,989 to triumph. Except the unusual happens, Bello may be sworn in as the next governor of the state on January 27, 2016.

There is no doubt that the PDP will pursue the case in the courts and tribunal to ensure that its candidate, Idris Wada is declared winner of the election. The Kogi poll will dominate the political space for a long hug.