By Dele Sobowale

“Nigeria needs $5b”, Dr Okonjo-Iweala. VANGUARD, October 28, 2014.

This is the third in the series titled WHEN GENIUS FAILS. The first two were written in 2008 about two individuals, Professor Chukwuma Soludo and Dr Ndidi Onyuike, Governor of Central Bank and Director General of the Nigerian Stock Exchange respectively, at a time when most people in Nigeria were not aware that banking “Con-SOLUDO-tion” was failing and leading to banking disaster and that the NSE was heading for a crash.  Mine was a lone voice shouting in the wilderness – until banking crisis became a reality and the Stock Market collapsed.

Soludo and the former NSE-DG share something in common with the current Minister of Finance; they have cut “larger than life” images based on exceptional intelligence, competence, self-confidence, mixed, as usual, with a good dose of luck. Like good cream, they have risen to the top and captivated us with their “genius”. Their initial successes had invariably led to their downfall as managers of very important aspects of our national life and economy. The combination of Soludo’s and Onyuike’s monumental errors had lost millions of Nigerians, who invested in bank shares after “con-soludo-tion” trillions of naira on the Stock Exchange. Let me provide a few figures which would startle the readers of this page.

FILE PHOTO: OKONJO-Iweala in SENATE—From Left, Minister of State for Finance, Dr. Yerima Ngama , with the Minister of Finance , Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at the Senate Joint Committee on Appropriation, and Finance interactive session on the implementation of 2012 budget at the National Assembly Abuja.

On July 6, 2008, NSE Market Capitalisation stood at N11trillion; after shedding over N3 trillion from April 2008 – when I first warned Nigerians about imminent crash. Today, Market Capitalisation hovers around N12.3 trillion. But, if you remove companies like Dangote Cement, Seplat, etc which were not listed in 2008, the result is under N11 trillion.  Obviously, for over six years, the NSE had laboured only to remain in one spot – and even that position is imperiled. The reasons are not difficult to discover as the chart below demonstrates.

BANK        JULY 2008             NOVEMBER

PRICE           2014

GTB          N26.50           N25.20

UBA          N32.89           N5.00

UNION            N37.00           N7.50

ZENITH          N42.00            N22.25

Clearly, all the over-celebrated Managing Directors of the leading banks, during “Con-soludo-tion”, left Nigerians with were losses which can never be recovered for those over 60. And, now the NSE is heading for another crash. But that is a subject for another day. The issue now is Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and her statement quoted above.

Sounding less assured than she had ever been, the Federal Minister for Finance, and the Coordinating Minister for the Economy, treated the Senate to the most wooly response from a Chief Financial Officer, CFO, of any organisation or nation. Using the International Monetary Fund, IMF, not for the light it provides, but, for support, the way a drunkard uses a lamp post after having too many bottles, she left Nigerians with no clear idea as to how the funds will be raised or how we can avoid getting into the same trap again. She pointed out, quite rightly, that the Excess Crude Account, ECA, which once stood at $9bn was, at one point, depleted to $2.4bn – again without explaining why.

Trying vainly to claim some credit for warning us about the need to save for the rainy day, which had arrived lately, with a vengeance, she provided no clue regarding the way forward. The reason is not hard to discover. To chart the way forward, we will need to look backwards, like the Biblical prodigal son, and find out how our revenue was dissipated by the Federal government she serves, as well as the state governors – majority of who are members of the ruling party.

Nigeria’s money did not just vanish into thin air. It was wasted (Centennial celebration, duty waivers granted to friends and religious organisations, conference of Africa’s First Ladies, Ministers purchasing expensive cars and hiring private jets, drilling big holes in public pockets, etc), stolen funds (stolen crude oil, embezzled fuel subsidy fund, kerosene import, and $10.8bn still unaccounted for by NNPC, etc).

Even the village idiot knows that, at least, if we have had the $10.8bn in the Excess Crude Account, we would be $5bn ahead of the game. The nation was promised a report regarding how much was “unaccounted for” by the NNPC months ago – that was before the former CBN Governor was suspended. A serious Minister, serving a serious government, lamenting about the need for $5bn should have been the first to be raising hell about the $10.8bn. The Minister’s silence is deafening.

”The climax of every tragedy lies in the deafness of its heroes”, wrote Camus, 1903-1960. (VBQ p 90). Back in 2008, Soludo and Onyuike were warned on these pages to step down before the roof caved in on their “sand castles”. None heeded the advice. The tragedies occurred as predicted – to banks and to the NSE. Similarly, on these pages, in August, 2011, when Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was re-appointed Minister for Finance, in my column titled, WELCOME DR NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA, I ADMIRE YOUR COURAGE, a warning was issued that she might be taking a needless risk with her reputation and that her second coming might not yield the same result for her and Nigeria she hoped it would. If the price of crude falls below $75 per barrel, new placards will be seen on the streets of every capital in Nigeria reading OKONJO-IWEALA MUST GO. What a way to end a golden career.

“From the sublime to the ridiculous, there only one step.” Thomas Paine, 1737-1809. (VBQ p 236).  Nigeria needs a Minister who can manage acute funds scarcity, not surplus. She is not the person who can do that.

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