THE Osun state gubernatorial election is here. There is excitement and tension in the air; will it end up like Ekiti? Or, the status quo will be maintained? The significance of the election to the two major contesting parties cannot be over emphasised; if the APC wins, it assures them of a hold in the West, which has been their strong base. If they lose, it will be a continuation of the band wagon effect that started from Ekiti.

In fact, it will be a very big blow on the aspiration of the APC  to rule at the centre come 2015; when we consider the fact that, of all the states in the western region, only Aregbesola’s  Osun gave Ribadu victory in the last presidential election.

The assumption therefore, is that, Osun state is a foregone  conclusion for the APC party. The Ekiti election result however, has changed the whole coloration of the coming election, pundits are now threading the soft path, in their projections of a clear cut winner, the mantra now is, “anything can happen”.

First, let us examine the importance of Osun state to the electoral victory of both parties;

Osun state is at the heart of Yoruba land, bounded by all the key Yoruba states of Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo and Kwara, with the exception of Lagos.

This implies that; there is a direct intermix between the Osun people and their other Yoruba kiths and kins, through the sharing of common boundaries. Ife town, the cradle of the Yoruba race, is under the umbrella of the Osun state administration. As a result, very important Yoruba monuments and historical landmarks are located within the Osun state axis, amongst these, as posted on the internet are the following; The famous Ife bronze;

The Oramiyan staff, which is believed to be the fighting stick of Oramiyan, the son of Oduduwa, who was a great warrior. It is the symbol of the popular Osun Osogbo cultural festival. Also included are; The Ife museum; Obafemi Awolowo University zoological gardens, Ile-Ase; Yeyemolu shrines and Oduduwa grove, Ile-Ife; Osun Osogbo sacred groove- venue of the internationally recognised Osun Osogbo festival and UNESCO world heritage site; Adunni Susan Wenger site; Genesis arts gallery; Nike arts gallery; Jalumi war site, Inisa; The Olumirin water falls, Erin Ijesa; Igbo Sango at Ede and the Ayikungba water falls at Oke Ila.

The people of Osun are warm and hospitable. The state consist of politically conscious citizenry, who are aware of their rights. It must be noted that; Ogbomosho, the hometown of late Ladoke Akintola, is a border town of Osun state, from the Oyo axis. The influence of Akintola to the political consciousness of the people, in this part of Yoruba land is huge. When Akintola parted ways with Awolowo, during the sixties, the people from this area supported him.

So, at different times in their  history, the people of Osun state have come under the rulership of both the conservatives and the progressive parties. The progressives in the form of AG, UPN, SDP, AD, ACN and the conservative parties, in the form of NPC, NPN, NRC  and PDP.

It is a state that also has an even distribution of all three major religions in the country; Christians, Muslims and Animists. Again, each one of them having an influence on the people in their own way. Recently, the state witnessed a situation where, students dressed to school in traditional uniforms, according to their various faith denominations.

Winning is therefore going to be a big deal to the parties concerned. Presently, the two major gladiators are Rauf Aregbesola of the APC and Iyiola Omisore of the PDP. If we are to cast our minds a little backwards; Omisore was in the same party with Aregbesola, as deputy governor to Akande , in then AD. So, he has moved from the “progressive” camp to the main stream conservative. Both of them are deeply involved in grassroots  politics and both claim to have done enough to win the election.

Now, let us examine Aregbesola’s strength. On the one hand, he is the incumbent governor and that factor cannot be wished away, he is also, a mobiliser and a revolutionary, very much in a hurry to create change. He has also introduced  radical programes to revive agriculture and education in the state, coupled with youth empowerment through his OYES initiative.

As a mobiliser, his propaganda machinery is very effective, he is the type that stays on his course, even if he had to step on toes. Examples are controversial decisions he had taken in the areas of education and religion.

Aregbesola’s weakness tilts towards over zealousness in the execution of his projects. When your programes dabble into religious and educational controversies, it is not a good trait of a brilliant and strategic politician. Whether this will work to his disadvantage will be made obvious after the August 9, casting of votes.

Omisore, on the other, has the advantage of having been on both side of the divide, he knows the APC and the PDP networks very well and so can use that to his advantage. He was, at a time, a deputy governor of the state and a very influencial one at that.

He was also a Senator of the Federal republic of Nigeria. Because he has not been opportuned to head a government, we cannot definitely say what his performance rating will be, but, from his antecedents, he is a dogged politician and a fighter.

His weakness is in the area of peoples perception of him, especially, as it concerns the Bola Ige’s affair. It is claimed that perception is stronger than reality.

That is the situation; two strong parties and two strong politicians, who will emerge victorious? My take; Aregbesola has the edge but like they say  “anything can happen”.

*Sunny Ikhioya, a commentator on national issues, wrote from Lagos.