By Dele Sobowale

“Brute force without wisdom falls by its own weight”, Horace, 65-8BC.
(VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p. 63)

From the day after the Ekiti Election until two weeks ago, I received several text messages from PDP supporters, as well as those who just wanted to taunt me for declaring my support for Governor Fayemi who lost the election. I was unperturbed because I know that a democracy means that there must be at least two candidates contesting and one person must win – irrespective of whether the election is free and fair. And the fact that the majority had selected the winner does not always mean that they have chosen wisely.

The future would remain unknown until the person elected starts to exercise the mandate. And, as I told one of my hecklers, the same Ekiti people elected the same Fayose in 2003 and watched him being impeached before his tenure was over. Furthermore, many of Jonathan’s fiercest critics, today, were the same people who worked for his election in 2011. Obasanjo is one of them. So, the result of an election is nothing to gloat about if your candidate wins; nor is it anything over which you have sleepless nights if he/she loses. So, I have no reason to gloat that Aregbesola had won. I honestly would hope that Omisore will try again next time. He made some important contributions during his campaign which should be examined for the progress of Osun State. Incidentally, none of those who were eager to send me text messages, after Ekiti, and to predict the same fate for Ogbeni, had found his GSM set to send another message. Bad losers!!!

What really interests me in the result was the role of the armed and security forces in the two elections. During a discussion with a mentor, senior friend, a day before the Osun Sttae election, the two of us had taken different positions about the outcome of the election the next day. My senior friend had assumed that with over 60,000, or so, soldiers and policemen, as well as Masked Masquerades of the DSS, on ground, the PDP had used brute force to capture Osun as they did Ekiti State. My position was different. To me even if the Armed Forces had delivered Ekiti, through intimidation of APC supporters, the strategy succeeded then because it was a surprise. The APC, a bunch of intelligent and street-wise fighters, would not be taken by surprise in Osun. They would ensure that the mobilized forces became mere spectators to what would happen and Aregbesola would win. That was precisely what happened. The armed soldiers, police, DSS operating openly and the Ojuju Calabar they brought with them became the most closely watched group by independent observers. There was nothing they could do.

Meanwhile, the APC had mobilized its members to go from house to house on Election day and get the supporters to march right past the armed men, peacefully, and go to the polls. So, who could they possibly shoot or brutalise? In fact, their heavy presence had made the Osun result totally incontestable. If indeed, this was the PDP strategy, then Jonathan should call in those who advised it to go and jump.

On the same page 63 of the VBQ, Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821, at one time, the most powerful man in the world, had this to say. “There are only two powers in the world: the sword [or gun] and the mind. In the end, the sword[or DSS Masquerades] is always conquered by the mind.”  Napoleon lost the war against Russia to an unknown General who simply adopted a scorched earth strategy which resulted in the death of thousands of French soldiers without a shot being fired at them. The Russians adopted the same strategy against Hitler in the Battle of Stalingrad and inflicted a great defeat on the Nazis during World War II. Each time, a giant army had been rendered impotent by people who used their brains instead of relying only on superior fire power. PDP apparently has only “Bullies in Babanriga” to develop its strategy. Even their impeachment strategy had been checked and now they have imperiled their victory in Ekiti where more than two thirds of the House of Assembly is APC. Fayose might not even last – if APC adopts Tit for Tat strategy.

Unless a court of law orders an election between now and 2015, the next test will occur next year. Jonathan will be well advised to get some intelligent people into the PDP’s top decision making group. Osun APC and Aregbesola had demystified the use of force to snatch victory – at least for now…

WHY ARE WE INSULTING PRESIDENT JONATHAN?
“Fighting for lost causes is a sure way to destruction.” VBQ p 60.
I have spent a good part of my life fighting for causes, many of which were lost; some, at first, appeared lost but were won with perseverance and Divine intervention. Among the latter, I never expected to see a black person elected President of America when I joined young black people to do battle for voting rights in Boston in the 1960s. Yet, here we are today. So, I don’t know how to classify this campaign to get people like Lai Mohammed to stop insulting the President. Disagree with him, criticize him, yes. But, to me it serves no useful purpose to insult him. Incidentally, I wrote this article eight weeks ago; I just had no opportunity to get it published. So, if some of the references appear stale, you should understand. But, the overarching message is enduring.

I discovered how much hostility any defender of President Jonathan invites, these days – even when discussing with people one would regard as his “natural” constituency. The recent disclosure that Ministers must receive permission from the President before appearing before the National Assembly, NASS, was the topic of discussion. And I had made the point that the instruction is neither new to democratic governments nor without merit. I cited the instance of late President Richard Nixon of the USA who argued for Executive Privilege – meaning that the members of the US Executive branch could not answer all the summons from the US Congress without permission from the President who is their boss and who might need their attention at the same time they are expected to appear on Capitol Hill. Furthermore, the particular Minister, Mrs Alison-Madueke, had been summoned over one hundred times by various committees of the NASS.

How on earth was she to get any work done as Minister if she spends virtually all her time at the NASS? The first person to ask everybody to disregard my comments, while calling Jonathan all sorts of unprintable names, was also the first person to call me when Jonathan was elected in 2011 telling me that “God did not answer your prayers, Dele. Jonathan is President.”
My reply then, and now, remains the same. “Jonathan is OUR President, whether we voted for him or not. We have no other President.”

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