BY DAYO JOHNSON
TOMORROW, October 20, the people of Ondo State popularly known as the Sunshine State will file out to either re-elect the incumbent Governor, Dr Olusegun Mimiko, who is the fifth executive governor of the state for a second term in office thereby breaking the second term jinx or bid him goodbye from the Alagbaka Government House, Akure.

Incidentally, three of the front runners in the contest – Mimiko of the Labour Party, LP, Rotimi Akeredolu of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN and Olusola Oke of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, who are prosecuting the battle with all their might, are former graduates of the Obafemi Awolowo University, OAU. Alumni of the university hail themselves as Great Ife.

Mimiko, Oke and Akeredolu lock horns

Chief Oke known as “Oke is Okay” graduated as a Law student at the prestigious OAU in1986, Akeredolu (SAN) popularly called “Aketi” had earlier graduated from same Law faculty in 1977 while Mimiko known as the “Iroko of Ondo politics” bagged B.Sc. Health Sciences in 1976 from the same University.

However, two of the gladiators have come a long way in the political history of the state having held many political offices spanning many years which invariably had prepared them for the plum position.

Oke and Mimiko are known names in the politics of Ondo. On his part, Akeredolu, who attained the highest height in law practice, is not a new comer to Ondo affairs. He was the state’s commissioner for Justice and Attorney General between 1995 and 1999.

The choice of Akeredolu as the ACN candidate was received with joy in Mimiko’s camp in the belief that he would be a walk over but the emergence of Oke was said to have made the governor’s camp uncomfortable.

The Mimiko camp had earlier written off the PDP in the state because of the three internal crises, which the party leaders alleged were sponsored by Iroko but the resurrection of PDP is said to have put Mimiko on his feet.

Since he assumed office in 2007, Mimiko had not lost any of the many elections be it in the House of Assembly bye election, House of Representatives or the Senatorial election. Only time will tell if he can still perform that feat in his own case.

As a medical doctor turned politician he has been able in the last four years to “cure” and nurture many political neophytes. It is to be seen if he would be able to diagnose his own political ailment and prescribe the right medication.

For now the battle, according to some political observers, is a three horse race among Mimiko, Oke and Akeredolu.

Areas of strength

The three candidates are from the three senatorial areas of the state which makes the poll interesting. They are individually holding tenaciously to their strongholds and working to avoid poaching. Each of the senatorial areas has six councils.

Oke is from the Southern area where the immediate past governor, Dr Olusegun Agagu hails from. For the same party which threw up Agagu to produce Oke again is seen by many as a minus for the PDP.

But Oke is said to be a child of circumstances brought to save the party from the shame that Mimiko would have unleashed on the PDP if an unequal personality was fielded.

Akeredolu is from the Northern part of the state. His emergence rubbished the mouthed “Akoko Agenda” that was propounded by some leaders of the senatorial district to produce the governor.

Akeredolu is said to be more of an Ibadan person. He was said to have been registered as a voter in Ibadan and only transferred same to Ondo State of late

Mimiko, the incumbent is from the Central senatorial district, where he is considered to be on ground while Oke is popular and loved in the South.

The election therefore is going to be the battle of the senatorial districts. While Oke is ready to hold on to his stronghold, Akeredolu is working round the clock to make an incursion into the domain of Mimiko and Oke.

Oke too is working to poach Mimiko and Akeredolu’s domains while Mimiko is sure that if he did not win any of the councils in the South he would get the required 25 per cent from the councils and win in the North especially. He expects victory in Irele, Odigbo and Ile Oluji/Okeigbo areas of the South.

Oke is sure of winning in three councils in the South – Ilaje/Eseodo and Okitipupa. But it should be noted that Odigbo is populated by people from Osun State and they may want to go the way of ACN, a move LP and PDP leaders have claimed to neutralize.

Where the votes will come from

In the South, breakdown of the registered voters according to INEC is as follows: Ilaje, 114,235; Ese Odo, 57,255; Ile Oluji, 64, 219; Irele, 55, 231; Okitipupa, 102,044; and Odigbo, 120,014 totaling 511,998, which represents 33.12 per cent
Mimiko’s incursion to Oke’s enclave may be boosted by the number of political appointees in his cabinet. Mimiko is equally cashing in on his achievements in the South to speak for him at this crucial hour.

Akeredolu is relying on his deputy, Dr Paul Akinterinwa, who is from Okitipupa, to have a foothold in South. However, Akinterinwa contested for the Senatorial election in the area recently and lost to the LP candidate, Hon Boluwaji Kunlere.

Breakdown of registered voters in the Northern area of the state shows that Akoko North West has 68,061; Akoko North East, 62,451; Akoko South East, 29,773; Akoko South West, 86,155; Owo, 110,100; and Ose, 62,386 totaling 418,926, which represents 27.10 percent.

Akeredolu is from the North and is expected to garner votes here especially in Owo. But Iroko and Oke are putting up a good fight because their deputy governorship candidates, Alhaji Ali Olanusi and Saka Lawal hail from the area. And the LP and PDP are targeting the four Akoko councils and Ose.

The Central area, with 615,157 voters or 39.78 per cent of the registered voters of Ondo State is expected to fall for the LP because Mimiko concentrated in projects in the six council areas and a large number of his political appointees are from the area.

The breakdown shows that Akure South has 248,953 registered voters; Akure North, 53,935; Ifedore, 63,242; Ondo West, 150,838; Ondo East, 37,469; and Idanre 60,720. The total number of registered voters is 1,546,081.

Likely surprises

Some surprises may occur in Akure South and North as both the PDP and ACN have many of their chieftains in the two councils, who are expected to mobilise their supporters.

Political observers opined that if the alliance between the two opposition parties, PDP and ACN had sailed through and was not thwarted by the National Secretariat of the PDP, who want to deal with the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu-led ACN with a long spoon, Mimiko would be facing a higher hurdle in tomorrow’s election.

With the death of the alliance, it will be pretty difficult to uproot the Iroko, who sees this election as the battle he has to win to shame his perceived detractors in the opposition ACN.

But the ACN leaders are boasting that tomorrow’s election will shock many pundits within and outside the state who had written the party off.

With the latest crisis of expulsion in the PDP the party is going into the election a divided house as the faction led by the immediate past Austria Ambassador, Prof Olu Agbi and five others have been expelled for anti-party activities. Those axed have pitched their tent with the incumbent describing him as the most qualified and prepared for the seat.

Less than 24 hours later, the Prof Agbi-led faction hit back and announced the expulsion of Agagu said to be the arrow-head of the other faction which produced the state executive headed by Hon Ebenezer Alabi.

The ACN seems to have settled its internal squabbles that occurred as a result of the alleged imposition of Akeredolu as aggrieved party governorship aspirants have joined hands with him.

Reports had it that their campaign expenses were taken care of by the Jagaban-Borgu himself to pacify them. In the LP the party is losing some of its members to the PDP.

These members according to findings were formerly of the PDP and from the Southern part of the state where Oke hails from and now that they are seeing light at the end of the tunnel all thanks to the choice of Oke, they have returned to their first love so as to support their own.

By tomorrow they will be able know if their choices were right or wrong.

While Akeredolu is depending on Asiwaju, his godfather, to make him governor, Oke is relying on the achievement of his principal, Agagu.

But Mimiko, the ‘orphan’ may have look up to his achievements in the last four years to save him from the claws of both the godfather and the principal. Only the electorate will decide on Saturday.