BY SUFUYAN OJEIFO

SHORTLY after the April (2011)     legislative elections in Edo State, I wrote an article entitled: “Edo Central Polls: Between Oshiomhole and Hedonism”, which was published in many newspapers and on-line media.  It was an incredibly wide publication by all standard for which I remain grateful to the editors of the media organisations who considered the article publishable. But Governor Adams Oshiomhole’s publicists, both former and current, reacted to it unjustifiably because the issue I addressed in the piece was clear: The outcome of the legislative polls in Edo Central.  I never delved into Oshiomhole’s performance in office.

I was also very clear-headed in weaving the thematic essence of the article which was to illuminate the role played by Chief Tony Anenih, the Iyasele of Esanland, in ensuring what I consider the critical victory of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the senatorial district. The election issue resolved itself in favour of Anenih: that, despite the Comrade Governor’s pre-election claim that he had buried the godfather (Anenih) in Edo State, the outcome of the election in Edo Central had proved contrary, thus rendering the claim fallacious. Anenih was able to stop in Edo Central what would have been Oshiomhole’s rampaging conquest of the PDP in the state.

If it had happened, the conquest would have confirmed Oshiomhole as the political supremo in Edo.  But it never happened; and so, the defeat of Anenih to which Oshiomhole now refers is, as far as I am concerned, tentative.

It is not the kind of “defeat” that should gladden the heart of any incumbent governor.  Consider how Governor Raji Fasola in Lagos completely dismantled the PDP machinery in the state.  Consider how Olusegun Mimiko did the same in Ondo.  Are there no “heavyweight” politicians in the PDP in these states? But Anenih stood solidly between the Comrade Governor and complete dismantling of the PDP.  It was apparent he did not like the development.  The reactions by his publicists thus illuminated his deep anguish and the despondency within his political party machinery; in fact, consequently, some elements in the senatorial district had to lose their jobs in Oshiomhole’s government.

The publicists’ reactions thus confirmed the point I made in my piece that they had wished that their setback in Edo Central were a dream.  Much as I believe in the democracy of ideas and freedom of opinions, I find repugnant some of the reactions (about three or four written with pseudonyms) that were ridiculously pedestrian and derogatory. They were outright red-herring from the issue which I interrogated; but, I consider the one written by my friend, Kassim Afegbua (Oshiomhole’s former Chief Press Secretary), somewhat rational.  I had chosen to ignore the many ludicrous issues and claims made against my person in some of the downrightly vulgar rejoinders because you cannot spank a child and deny him/her the right to cry.

I still stand on my well-considered position on the legislative polls outcome.  I am happy that my part of Edo State voted for the PDP in the legislative elections because of one man who has effectively played the role of prime minister (Iyasele) ministering, to the best of his ability, to the needs of Esan people both in Nigeria and in the Diaspora.

It was in appreciation of the man-caring leadership that Anenih is providing that Edo Central has resolved to loyally stand by him and PDP has become a secondary beneficiary of that loyal support.  There was nothing Oshiomhole and his camp could have done about this; and there is nothing they can do about it in the nearest future.

I have decided to write again on a similar issue, which was anchored by Oshiomhole on the same April legislative elections in the state to make a prognosis of an impending political contest in a different context, to wit: the July 14, 2012 governorship election in the state.  Read him: “Anenih will be defeated again, even in his local community.  I will show him the number of roads leading to his house that I have tarred”.

A page 10 report in The Nation of Wednesday, October 12, 2012 with the headline: “I’ll defeat Anenih again, says Oshiomhole”, caught my attention and after reading through it, I laughed at his poor appreciation of political developments around him.

Oshiomhole has simply shown how unsure he is about his capability in the political battle that is going on in the state; otherwise he should not be talking of defeating a man he said he had buried politically even before the April legislative elections.  If he truly buried the godfather, then the implication is that the godfather, indeed, miraculously resurrected to terminate his hubris. True, Oshiomhole’s ACN candidates might have won the legislative assemblies seats in Edo North and Edo South, the defeat does not, in any way, translate to the defeat of Anenih.  Anenih has never been a candidate in any election in Edo State since 1999.  He has only, as a leader of his party, been working assiduously and selflessly to ensure the victory of his party.

In 1999 and 2003, Lucky Igbinedion was the candidate of the PDP and governor of the state up until 2007.  The victory of the PDP then was understandably regarded as Igbinedion’s and not Anenih’s victory; the initial victory of Professor Oserhiemen Osunbor (the PDP candidate) as governor in the 2007 election was regarded as Osunbor’s and not Anenih’s victory. Oshiomhole’s victory at the Court of Appeal on November 14, 2008 was regarded as his victory and not that of any leader of his political party because he contested against Osunbor in the election. It is the candidate of Anenih’s PDP that will slug it out with Oshiomhole in next year’s governorship election.

I consider it simplistic for Oshiomhole to dress Anenih in the garb of any candidate that flies the flag of the PDP in 2012, but his declaration is certainly an expression of his real and innermost fears: Anenih has, no doubt, become a veritable bugaboo to Oshiomhole’s second term bid. It is understandable why the fear of Anenih is the beginning of wisdom to Oshiomhole.  Having successfully defended his Edo Central zone, the zone has become a rampart from where he would drive the PDP machinery in the governorship battle against Oshiomhole and his ACN machinery.  The comrade governor will fall back on his Edo North zone while Edo South zone, with the highest voting population, will become the beautiful bride.

I do not think Edo South people would not appreciate one of their own becoming the governor.  I cannot see the PDP getting it wrong if it is able to field a very good candidate from the south to fly its flag in the crucial July 14, 2012 election. The battle, to my mind, is in Edo South and not Edo Central.  The Esan people (Edo Central) will not abandon Anenih; certainly not for Oshiomhole who has taken every politically opportuned moment to heap insults on him….

But Oshiomhole would appear to have properly advised himself on the forthcoming governorship election.  Read him: “I am not afraid of the General in politics.  I’m not a military man, but when the time comes, we will see that the era of promise and fail politics is over”.  Perhaps, the General, and not Anenih, should be his concern because the General (whoever he is that Oshiomhole was referring to) may turn out to be his Achilles’ heel.