By Ochereom Nnanna
IRRESPECTIVE of what happens on October 24, 2011, Bayelsa State will be one of those states where governorship elections will take place some time next year. If the Supreme Court affirms the extension of the tenure of Governor Timipre Sylva, he will simply hunker down to prepare for the polls.

But if it overturns the verdict of the High Court and Court of Appeal, then Sylva will, for the second time in his tempestuous political career, go home and re-contest from there as a civilian. For the third time in the short political history of the State, the Speaker of the House of Assembly will mount the exalted seat and supervise the conduct of the governorship poll.

The impending governorship election in Bayelsa State is of great interest for at least two reasons. Number one is that the state is one of the most volatile when it comes to political contests. Bombs have been used to express political feelings in Bayelsa more than in any other state. Just before the gavel of the courts descended to halt the poll earlier this year due to the tenure extension saga, the state was like a war front. Since all political forces closed ranks to ensure a high scoring victory for President Goodluck Jonathan in the presidential race of 2011, the state has been calmer than at any other time since the reign of militancy overtook it as from 2004. Unless matters are handled with extreme care, the buried hatchets (arms, ammunition and explosives) will be exhumed and once that happens, nobody knows what might encourage disgruntled groups to take them further south and resume economic disruptions.

The second reason is that President Jonathan hails from the state. If you ask me, I will tell you that President Jonathan’s best personal interest will be served more if the elections are free, fair, acceptable and peaceful than if he succeeds in putting his crony as the governor. If the President helps to prepare an atmosphere that leads to the former, he will be playing the role of a father. But if the latter obtains he will be performing the rites of a godfather. If you ask me, it will be better for him to play the role of a father than godfather.

Right now, I am not exactly sure which option is top of GEJ’s scale of preference. The President has a great talent in the art of maintaining a politically inscrutable façade when he does not want to let the proverbial cat out of the bag. He is good at keeping people guessing. Right now, some groups have taken matters beyond the realm of sitting down to guess. Among these groups are the Green Movement and the Bayelsa Restoration Team. They have “made the decision” for GEJ. As far as they are concerned, GEJ has decided to dump incumbent governor, Sylva! He has “settled for” a member of the House of Representatives, Henry Seriake Dickson. They are styling themselves as “loyalists” of President Jonathan.

Sylva, on the other hand, has done his best to put out of sight anything that suggested in the past that his loyalty to the President was in question. He was fully in the picture as the President struggled with candidates of Northern extraction for the presidential ticket of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, General Ibrahim Babangida, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Senator Bukola Saraki. He equally worked hard to ensure that the Bayelsa electorate returned a high electoral vote for their son during the presidential election.

Curiously enough, Chief Timi Alaibe, who would have stood for the Labour Party, while still maintaining the façade of a Jonathan loyalist, has been ominously silent since the presidential election. He does not appear to have said much since the new man on the block, Seriake, jumped into the fray to challenge the incumbent.

With all these self-styled “loyalists” trying to outdo one another to claim the top spot in the President’s heart, there is a tendency on the part of any unwary mortal to settle for one of them or go into the heap and bring out a fresh, unexpected X-factor loyalist. I am hereby advising the president to squelch this urge. Rather, let him encourage every “loyalist” to go face the people.

Let them face members of their political parties and clinch the primary tickets. Then, let the Bayelsa electorate make the final decision at the poll. The President should be seen (and heard) pushing this option. If the election is to be free, fair and credible, with the preferred choice of the people emerging at the end of the exercise, Bayelsans, not the President, must be allowed to choose, with the President being visibly instrumental to making this possible.

A candidate popularly chosen by the Bayelsa electorate will have no choice but to continue to demonstrate loyalty to the President, since the President himself also received over 90 per cent of their votes. A governor who knows the President gave every contestant a chance to win or lose will have deep respects for the President as a leader and father. Since the President will be out of office before the in-coming governor, the respect the President will generate through his fatherly role in the coming poll will last the distance.

On the other hand, a godfatherly role has a way of achieving a short-lived romance between the godfather and his crony. Empirical evidence alone shows that no godfather/godson romance lasted beyond a few months after the governor assumed office. It also shows that even former Governor Gbenga Daniel, whom former President Olusegun Obasanjo helped install in 2003, started open quarrels with Obasanjo as soon as the latter left office in 2007. The quarrel extended to the search for Daniel’s successor in 2011, when the political forces of both men cancelled each other out and ushered in the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN. The same thing happened with Obasanjo’s installation of the late Umaru Yar’Adua as president. Yar’ Adua turned out to seem like an opposition government taking over power from Obasanjo.

Political godfatherism is a failed experiment in Nigeria. Those who have ears let them hear. Let them learn from the woes of others.

Governor Sylva should be thrown to the Bayelsa voting public to decide whether they want him to continue his good works or go home due to poor performance. They should be the ones to decide for “change” or “continuity”. President Jonathan must encourage his native Bayelsans to demonstrate to the world what a model democratic state it is.