By Donu Kogbara

SINCE  the dramatic and traumatic postponement of last Saturday’s National Assembly elections, I have heard a thousand and one Nigerians and foreigners say, verbally or in writing, that Jonathan and/or Jega cooked the whole sorry mess up on purpose because one or both of them had dubious hidden agenda.

The internet, various publications and my email inbox are awash with conspiracy theories, ranging from Jonathan supposedly using the postponement as a means of rigging, to Jega supposedly being a closet tribalist who is in cahoots with evil  Northern supremacists who can’t bear the thought of a Niger Delta Presidency.

Having given such murky suspicions some thought and discussed them at length with several senior people who are particularly well-informed about the goings-on in the corridors of power, I have concluded that those who are accusing Jonathan and/or Jega of deliberate sabotage are being extremely unfair.

During my recent conversations with high-ranking government officials and friends of ‘The Accused’ who hail from both the Northern and Southern parts of this country, a lot of rage, despair and embarrassment have been expressed.

I’ve been told that Jonathan was as mystified, furious and frustrated as everyone when voting materials and INEC personnel failed to show up in his Bayelsa village at the appointed hour. And I hear that Jega was genuinely mortified and reacted as if he wanted the ground to open and swallow him.

Of course, people often attempt to deceive journalists. But I know the guys I spoke to pretty well and do not think that they are erecting smokescreens around their Oga and Jega or pretending to be shell-shocked themselves.

I have just had a chat with a friend who assured me that I am being “ridiculously naive” and that I am “too determined to give this useless, dishonest regime the benefit of the doubt because Jonathan is from your area”.

This friend is absolutely convinced that both Jega and Jonathan are partners-in-crime, consummate actors and pathological liars whose fingers were firmly crossed behind their backs when they claimed to be shaken by last weekend’s monumental hitch and whose apologies to the nation were totally insincere.

Whenever I hear this kind of cynical, alarmist talk, the questions that keep running through my mind are: a) Why would anyone go out of his way to expose himself to endless humiliating insults and numerous allegations of chronic incompetence and/or downright dishonesty unless he was as mad as a hatter?,

b)How does fraudulently engineering a delay maximize the PDP’s chances of winning? and c) Even assuming that screwing up so badly in front of the whole world was a strategy rather than an accident, was it not a very stupid strategy? Is wrecking your image so publicly and inconveniencing the millions of citizens who wasted large amounts of time and money on getting to their home constituencies last weekend not more likely to undermine you electorally?

I’m always willing to accept the possibility that I am wrong. And we will eventually know whether my analysis is accurate because details about the real cause of this debacle will be revealed one day (too many diametrically opposed folks with conflicting interests are involved in this burning issue for the truth to be cleverly concealed forever. Secrets can only be permanently protected by small cabals containing individuals who trust each other and have common goals).

While waiting for more information, I will stick to the view that this problem was caused by nothing more sinister or complicated than the Nigerian penchant for being boastful, over-confident, incapable of acknowledging one’s personal weaknesses and reluctant to recognise the fact that some jobs are too important and too difficult to be given to people who lack relevant experience.

Jega, whose previous track record mostly revolved around steering the affairs of a university that can hardly be described as huge, was suddenly catapulted into masterminding a massive countrywide challenge that should, ideally, have been handled by a seasoned international-level logistician and administrator.

I must confess that I was very glad when Jega was hired because I was so dazzled by his education, reputation for integrity and dignified bearing.

But I have gradually formed the opinion that he should have realised that his career background had not provided him with enough skills to do a good job within that context and in the very limited period of time he had at his disposal…and that he should have rejected the job offer in the first place.

Then, having (like a typical Nigerian!) failed to acknowledge his weaknesses and having over-confidently assumed that he could efficiently cope with a tough task that he wasn’t actually qualified to handle at all, Jega blithely proceeded to loudly boast, a couple of days before D-Day, that he was ready to conduct the election. Little did we know that some of the voting materials had not yet arrived and that he hadn’t checked them to ensure that they were perfect.

This is how we wound up with a nonsensical situation that will go down in history as one of Nigeria’s biggest bungles. INEC staff did not show up at various polling stations. Materials were not distributed before the deadline and many ballot papers that DID reach their intended destinations contained errors.
To his credit, Jega has admitted that the buck stops on his desk and has honourably offered to resign. But he might as well stay till the elections end.

The bottom line is that the damage has already been done. And that we have already been disgraced and messed up. And that we deserve a better deal.

Bungling has become a fundamental part of our culture and only God knows when we will be liberated from VIPs who don’t deliver the dividends we pray for.