POLITICAL uncertainty in Nigeria looks set to continue to threaten onshore oil infrastructure and offshore security in the Niger Delta, a new report claimed.

In its 2011 forecast, published today, Danish security analyst Risk Intelligence said there were 58 piracy-related security incidents in Nigerian coastal waters last year, significantly down on the 91 incidents reported in 2009 and 114 in 2008.

However, Risk Intelligence said the figures masked a trend among militants towards offshore kidnappings-for-ransom. The analysts said this is due in part to the ineffectiveness of a government amnesty programme and a split among rebel groups.

“The development heralds a return to ‘commercially’ driven piracy and outright organised crime related to illegal bunkering as a source for funding communities and gangs,” the report said, adding that commercially-motivated attacks are likely to increase this year.

It said 18 attacks last year involved kidnap-for-ransom compared to only eight such incidents from rigs and ships in both 2009 and 2008.

The main targets of pirate attacks in Nigeria last year were product tankers and supply ships, with 11 and eight incidents reported, respectively.

Five crude oil tankers, two platform rigs and one floating production, storage and offloading vessel were also hit last year.

Risk Intelligence said it expects insurgency-related attacks and financially-motivated piracy in and around the Delta to escalate following state and national elections in April this year.

Elections “will distract gangs and insurgents from targeting energy and maritime assets”, it said.

“However, piracy and risks to maritime and offshore assets  including platforms and FPSOs  from insurgent activity will increase again following the elections … as armed groups search for new revenue streams.”

The militants’ focus will remain onshore and in the swamps, where targets are ample and easy to access, the report said.

But most offshore attacks will involve kidnappings-for-ransom, a trend also being seen in neighbouring Cameroon.
“Oil pipelines and facilities are also likely to be targeted, although local and community issues continue to play a significant part in the target selection,” Risk Intelligence said.

Militants in the Niger Delta region do not shy away from gun battles, the report said, and “when attacking larger targets, attackers prefer to rely on poor shipboard defenses and on intimidating the crew”.

It added: “Hardening and passive defensive measures therefore have a good potential for thwarting attacks and thus protecting the crew.”

The Niger Delta insurgency and the amnesty failure

The Report revealed that insurgent activity was reduced by the amnesty programme through the first half of 2010.

However, the amnesty programme was flawed from its inception and did not offer any long-term solution to the insurgency’s underlying political and social issues. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, an ethnic Ijaw from Bayelsa State, became acting president on 9 February 2010 and was appointed president on 6 May 2010 following the death of President Yar’Adua.

Despite Jonathan’s Niger Delta origins and his installation of a cohort of special advisers from the region, little has been done to enhance the credibility of the amnesty programme. The programme has been a lucrative opportunity for enrichment for its administrators and top-ranking “ex-militants”. Several of these top-ranking “ex-militants” also began working closely with state governors (particularly in Bayelsa State) in preparation for the 2011 elections.