By Josef Omorotionmwan
RECENTLY, Edo State narrowly averted what would easily have been a fight between the Action Congress and the Action Congress. Certainly, it is not what you have in mind – not the issue of factions. Who is afraid of factions, any way?

The truth is that it is only the dead political parties that may not have factions. Any political party that has some semblance of popularity or just anything going for it must be characterised by some elements of struggles within the membership.

One good thing about factions is that members will fight even to the polling station on election day but, except in some rare cases, they will still end up voting for their party.

Suddenly, Oghede Ward in Ovia North East Local Government Area of Edo State has become the beautiful bride. How? We have no evidence to show whether the 7,000 registered voters identified by Iwu’s records are really on ground in that ward.

But such a figure, easily the highest from any ward in the local government or in any Local Government for that matter, must be attractive to any contestant and his political party. Such a figure would come easily handy as a balancing act for riggers.

By the time the two major political parties, the PDP and the AC arrived at the terminal ward, Oghede, they were running neck to neck and it was clear that Oghede was going to be the deciding factor. All eyes were therefore on Oghede. With all eyes open, Oghede could not provide the needed answer because the expected ‘mago-mago’ could not really take place.

With the small margin brought to that point by the AC, its member has been in the House of Assembly while the case was simmering in the court. Finally, the Court of Appeal decided that a by-election must take place in Oghede Ward so as to determine the actual winner. Meanwhile, the PDP candidate for the April 2007 elections in that constituency had defected to the AC.

Ordinarily, there would have been no need for the by-election since both contestants were already AC. But the PDP still had a stake, which it decided must be enjoyed and this it did by producing a substitute candidate. Finally, finally, the AC has clinched the ward and the constituency.

The beat is the same all over the country. There is a smart guy hanging in the wings. His name is Theodore Orji. He currently holds sway as the Governor of Abia State. Once upon a time, he was in the PDP but when the PDP direction went sour, he contested and won election under the PPA. About three weeks ago, he dumped the PPA for the APGA.

We hear him grumbling that APGA may not have all he wants and he has just dumped the APGA for the PDP. That is merry go round and that is how serious we are in this country. And the world is watching us.

As we remember James Clark (1936-1968), we are reminded that in Nigeria, we have a bunch of politicians, but hardly a statesman. Clark distinguishes between the politician and the statesman in the sense that the politician is constantly thinking of the next election while the statesman is constantly thinking of the next generation. Which way, President Jonathan? Who wants this fine son of the South-South destroyed?

At that highest level, no one can be said to allow himself to be confused. So, our President cannot be said to be at crossroads. We can hear part of his mind telling him to accept the path of statesmanship and bow out gracefully in the next 10 months or so.

To yet another group, no one in this country has ever had the type of opportunity that he has now smiling at him. To this category, yes, “one hundred million youths” of this country earnestly want him to run as President, come 2011. Many hitherto loafers are already criss-crossing this country trying to drum up support for him, perhaps unsolicited.

All of a sudden, many Southerners are beginning to warn him not to return home if he throws away this golden opportunity. All of a sudden, Obasanjo has apparently abandoned his Ota farms to prosecute the new venture. This is bad market. Again, what Jonathan now has in his hands is simply the moral equivalence of Obasanjo’s third term project.

It is probably not unwise to agree with the Binis that the best test of true friendship resides in: “I have been telling you” because there is no genuine friendship in: “I thought I would tell you”. We have been telling everyone who cares to listen that there is hardly any condition in this world that has not been seen somewhere else. People are quick to point out that Goodluck Jonathan rose to the highest position in the land without purchasing a single nomination form.

His luck has been good, good indeed. This also has a parallel in the history of the US. Richard Nixon was Vice President to President Eisenhower for eight years, from 1953 to 1961.  In 1969, Nixon ran as President with Spiro Agnew as his running mate and they won. Soon after assuming office, Agnew was indicted for fraud, which he committed while he was Governor of Maryland. So Agnew resigned as Vice-President. Gerald Ford was brought in as Agnew’s replacement.

A few weeks after Ford assumed office, Richard Nixon came under investigation for the Watergate scandal. He was indicted by the Senate Judiciary Committee and at the verge of impeachment, he resigned as President. Up till date, Nixon remains the only President ever to resign from that office.

And perhaps, luckier than Goodluck, Gerald Ford became the President of America without buying any nomination form because he did not contest for the office of President; neither was he a running mate to anyone.

When God stands by you, you should try to restrain yourself from pushing your luck too hard.