By Jide  Ajani , Deputy Editor

Inching towards its golden jubilee as an independent country, the     real issues in Nigeria’s evolution as a country are again at the root of the emerging confrontation between the Northern political establishment and the expected presidential aspiration of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.

This report examines why the polity has always been polarized along the North/South divide and concludes that this is the time for Nigeria to break from the primordial sentiments of bi-polar politics and embrace the tenets of true nationhood.

The North is kicking hard; very hard; and openly too.
These are times for high wire intrigues and Nigeria, therefore, is on the march again!  What happened sometime in the last quarter of 2002, preparatory to the 2003 presidential elections, is again playing out albeit, in an unsavoury manner for the North.  Unlike the 2002 episode which was a covert operation, today, it is an open confrontation between the North and South of Nigeria.

In 2002, having concluded that Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who it helped to power in 1999 had failed, some leaders of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, went to work.  A position paper presented to the ACF that year, and one actually commissioned by the Forum, outlined a number of possibilities. The possibilities presented a mix of outcomes. A major insight is contained in the working paper written by one Professor Mahmood Yakubu from Bauchi State.

The document, which was circulated among members of the national Assembly at that time, noted that “Obasanjo’s election in 1999 was historic in the following respects: * He was elected by the rest of Nigeria after being rejected by his own geo-political zone – this is a departure from the past when politicians hardly won support outside their “home base; * he was the first Christian to be democratically-elected with support across religious lines which is a significant political development in Nigeria; and his party won an overwhelming majority in the two chambers of the National Assembly unlike previous experiences of alliance and coalition.

“With the nation truly as his constituency and saved of the geo-ethnic, religious and party political constraints of the past, Obasnnjo was well-placed to deliver what Nigerians expected of him, and what he himself recognised, in terms of our nation’s renewal. However, by common consent, he has not only failed to perform but also seriously eroded public confidence in his ability to give the nation new focus and orientation”.

Ironically, the paper, in present a possible scenario of a Northern President and a Southern Vice President, noted, “after only three years of “power shift”, what is the rationale for a northern president in 2003”?

But the document answers the question itself: “It is the region’s democratic and constitutional right to aspire to the highest political office in Nigeria”.

It declares, “No region should be denied these rights on account of “power shift.  The region feels unjustifiably targeted by the Obasanjo administration which it regards as unfair and unjust to its interests.  Its sacrifice that enabled Obasanjo’s- emergence as President in 1999 appears unappreciated and unrewarded. Worse, Obasanjo has failed to deliver on his promises for the betterment of the country to deserve another term”.

All these were in 2002.  But Obasanjo shackled every politician he could, broke limbs, and succeeded in getting himself re-elected.

Today, it is President Jonathan’s suspected aspiration for the presidency next year that is giving the North goose pimples.

Therefore, penultimate week, frontline politicians from the North came out openly to challenge the basis for such an aspiration in the light of this contemporary reality.

The statement signed by Third Republic Senate President, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, observed that “the call to respect the principle of zoning is on grounds of principle and not targeted at speculated aspiration of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011.

That zoning will, for the foreseeable future serve the best interest of Nigeria and its political stability, at least in the short- and medium-term. There would have been no need for special political arrangement to concede power to the South in 1999 if Nigerians were ready to accept their presidents to come, perpetually, from any part of the country.”

Their 13-point observation and four-point resolution also made it clear thus: “That the North is calling on politicians and other stakeholders to respect political agreements and allow the principle of zoning to run its full course, should not be construed as weakness on its part. Northerners have all it takes to win free and fair elections without special arrangements”.

But in far away Toronto, Canada, while addressing the Nigerian community and friends of Nigeria at the Marriot Easton Centre in Downtown, Toronto, Canada, the subject individual, President Jonathan, lampooned those chanting the mantra of zoning.

Jonathan said: “We are a country where our leaders tend to play tribal sentiments, saying I am from the South-South; I am from North-west; I am North, I am South, I am a Muslim and I am a Christian.
“All these are selfish motives to make people who probably cannot compete with others…to use these sentiments”, Jonathan said.
Operating under the aegis of NORTHERN POLITICAL LEADERS’ FORUM, resolutions 1 and 2 of their statement are already being effectuated.
Sunday Vanguard gathered that Town Hall meetings are already being held
across the north.
Resolution one and three of the communiqué reads, respectively:

“(1) The scope of this meeting be expanded to include and comprise all other interest groups, political parties and persons who share the goals and objectives of the meeting. In this regard, it was resolved that other important personalities and stakeholders, especially General Muhammadu Buhari and Governor Ibrahim Shekarau who have publicly declared their intention to aspire to the office of President be invited to the next meeting. Furthermore, the Northern Elders Assembly which is pursuing similar goals be integrated and its members invited to the next meeting.

“(3) The leadership of the forum shall meet and address the Northern Governors Forum and the Northern Legislators Caucus in both Houses of the National Assembly as well as Emirs and Traditional Rulers to appraise them of the objectives of the forum and the task at hand.”
Three committees have already been established by the Forum and they are Planning and Strategy Committee:  Professor Ignatius Ayua – Chairman, Dr. Abubakar Siddique Mohammed, Professor Yakubu Mukhtar, Dr. Sule Bello, Sen. Davis Iornem, Professor Nuhu Yaqub, Dr. Junaid Mohammed, Alhaji Usman Alhaji, Basher Yusuf Ibrahim, Farouk B.B. Farouk, Omar Shittien, Prof. Maxwell Gidado, Sen. Salisu Ibrahim Matori; Contact and Mobilization Committee: Mallam Adamu Ciroma – Chairman (North Central) General Ibrahim B. Babangida (Rtd), Gen. I.M. Wushishi )Rtd), Maj. Gen David Jemibowen (Rtd), Chief Audu Ogbeh, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, Amb. Yahaya Kwande, Alh. Shaba Lafiagi, Prof. Daniel Saror, Mr. Patrick Adaba, Alh. Mohammed Hassan (Ciroman Keffi); (North East)Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Shettima Mustafa, Alh. Mohammed Bello Kirfi, Prof. Saad Abubakar, Amb. Yarima Abdullahi, Sen. Abubakar Mahdi, Prof. Isa B. Mohammed, Alh. Dahiru Bobbo, Alh. Yakubu Tsala; and (North West), Alh. M.D. Yusufu, Alh. Umaru Aliyu Shinkafi, Alh. Lawal Kaita, Sen. M.T. Liman, AVM Hamza Abdullahi, Alh. Magaji Dambatta, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Magoro (Rtd), Sen. Garba Ila Gada, Alh. Yahaya Abdulkarim, Alh. Usman Alhaji
Publicity Committee: Alhaji Magaji DAMBATTA – Chairman, Chief Audu Ogbeh, Alhaji Sani Zangon Daura, Mallam Mohammed Haruna, Mallam Bukar Zarma, Alh. Ahmed Mohammed Gusau, Amb. Zubairu Dada

Unlike what happened in 2002, when the North attempted to create possible scenarios, the north is simply demanding that the field should be left open for it to play, just as was simulated in 1999 when only two major presidential candidates emerged not just from the south, but from the South West geo-political zone. Just last Monday, Chief Anthony Anenih made it clear that the much vaunted zoning arrangement which is referred to as a Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, arrangement, was never strictly adhered to.

The 1999 presidential primaries of the PDP were ontested by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Dr. Alex     Ekweme, Chief Don Etiebet, Chief Jim Nwobodo, Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, Chief Francis Ellah and Chief Philip Asiodu, all from the south, and late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, from the North – all of them bought the form.

In 2003, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Dr. Alex Ekweme and Owelle Anayo Rochas Okorocha from the south collected the forms, while, inspite of the said zoning of the office to the South, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and Chief Banabas Gemade, from the North, picked the forms.

In 2007, working on the purported zoning, which should have been the exclusive preserve of the North, the following collected the forms for the Presidential primaries of the same PDP:  From the North, were, Mrs. Sara Jibril, Gen, Buba Marwa, Prof. Jerry Gana, Gen Mamma Kontagora, Sen. (Dr.) A.P. Sawa, Gov Abdulahi Adamu, Dr. (Mrs) Mary A. Olutimayin, Gen. Ibrahim B. Babagida, Late Gov. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Gov. Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, Gov. Alh. Ahmed M. Makarfi, Princes Hadiza Golen, Alhaji Mohammed Gusau, Gov. Ahmed Adamu Mu’azu.

From the South (and in a year when the office of President was supposedly restricted to the North), there was this multitude of people who collected the form:  Gov. Victor Attah, Gov. Dr. Peter Otunuya Odili, Gov. Dr. Sam Egwu, Amb. Rev. Princess E. Egbon-Day, Admr Okhai Michael Akhigbe, Chief Okoh Ebitu Ukiwe, Gov. Chief Achike Udenwa, Chief (Dr.) Zeb Abule, Mrs. Rev. Mary U. Onuka, Denis Uzoma Eheduru, Gov. Donald Duke, Amb. Raph Uwechue, Gov. Chimaroke Nnamani, Owelle Anayo Rochas Okorocha, Dr. Godson M. Nnaka and Chief Albert Korubo Horsfall.
In 2007, there were 14 politicians from the North who picked the form whereas there were 16 politicians from the South.

With the present action of the NORTHERN POLITICAL LEADERS’ FORUM, the North may have betrayed that sense of proprietary control over all matters of Nigeria.

The scenarios presented in the paper in 2002 did not only demonstrate a sense of imperialism but also suggested that the North would always have the final say.

When Charles Kindleberger, an American economist said “There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend getting richer (or becoming more prosperous)” he did not know that some politicians in Nigeria would act accordingly.

That 2002 secret document warned that “there is no guarantee that an Igbo president will not be more vicious in emasculating the North further” citing what it called “Igbo reputation for ruthlessness” and the possibility that the Igbo may “once again seek to actualise their secession from Nigeria towards the end of their tenure.”

Analyzing the options before the North, the paper sets out three alternatives for the presidential election. These were a South-North ticket; and a North South East ticket.  It simply dismissed a North-South-South ticket, or a South-South-North ticket as not being “politically pragmatic”.

The following implications maybe considered, the paper said: “The zone (South South, from where Jonathan hails) may not vote en bloc since unlike the South-West and the South East, it is esthetically diverse and internally more rancorous. There is no guarantee that the zone will massively support “one of their own.

“There is the likelihood that the South-East and South-West may vote against a South-South/North ticket with dire consequences for the North as well as the stability of the country.

“The zone lacks the financial and media clout of the other Southern geo- political zones. It is better, in the interest of stability, for the zone to take its “natural turn” after the major ethnic groups 50 Years On: Again, It’s North Versus South

By JIDE AJANI, Deputy Editor

Inching towards its golden jubilee as an independent country, the     real issues in Nigeria’s evolution as a country are again at the root of the emerging confrontation between the Northern political establishment and the expected presidential aspiration of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.  This report examines why the polity has always been polarized along the North/South divide and concludes that this is the time for Nigeria to break from the primordial sentiments of bi-polar politics and embrace the tenets of true nationhood.

The North is kicking hard; very hard; and openly too.
These are times for high wire intrigues and Nigeria, therefore, is on the march again!  What happened sometime in the last quarter of 2002, preparatory to the 2003 presidential elections, is again playing out albeit, in an unsavoury manner for the North.  Unlike the 2002 episode which was a covert operation, today, it is an open confrontation between the North and South of Nigeria.

In 2002, having concluded that Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who it helped to power in 1999 had failed, some leaders of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, went to work.  A position paper presented to the ACF that year, and one actually commissioned by the Forum, outlined a number of possibilities. The possibilities presented a mix of outcomes. A major insight is contained in the working paper written by one Professor Mahmood Yakubu from Bauchi State.

The document, which was circulated among members of the national Assembly at that time, noted that “Obasanjo’s election in 1999 was historic in the following respects: * He was elected by the rest of Nigeria after being rejected by his own geo-political zone – this is a departure from the past when politicians hardly won support outside their “home base; * he was the first Christian to be democratically-elected with support across religious lines which is a significant political development in Nigeria; and his party won an overwhelming majority in the two chambers of the National Assembly unlike previous experiences of alliance and coalition.

“With the nation truly as his constituency and saved of the geo-ethnic, religious and party political constraints of the past, Obasnnjo was well-placed to deliver what Nigerians expected of him, and what he himself recognised, in terms of our nation’s renewal. However, by common consent, he has not only failed to perform but also seriously eroded public confidence in his ability to give the nation new focus and orientation”.

Ironically, the paper, in present a possible scenario of a Northern President and a Southern Vice President, noted, “after only three years of “power shift”, what is the rationale for a northern president in 2003”?

But the document answers the question itself: “It is the region’s democratic and constitutional right to aspire to the highest political office in Nigeria”.

It declares, “No region should be denied these rights on account of “power shift.  The region feels unjustifiably targeted by the Obasanjo administration which it regards as unfair and unjust to its interests.  Its sacrifice that enabled Obasanjo’s- emergence as President in 1999 appears unappreciated and unrewarded. Worse, Obasanjo has failed to deliver on his promises for the betterment of the country to deserve another term”.

All these were in 2002.  But Obasanjo shackled every politician he could, broke limbs, and succeeded in getting himself re-elected.
Today, it is President Jonathan’s suspected aspiration for the presidency next year that is giving the North goose pimples.
Therefore, penultimate week, frontline politicians from the North came out openly to challenge the basis for such an aspiration in the light of this contemporary reality.

The statement signed by Third Republic Senate President, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, observed that “the call to respect the principle of zoning is on grounds of principle and not targeted at speculated aspiration of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011.

That zoning will, for the foreseeable future serve the best interest of Nigeria and its political stability, at least in the short- and medium-term. There would have been no need for special political arrangement to concede power to the South in 1999 if Nigerians were ready to accept their presidents to come, perpetually, from any part of the country.”

Their 13-point observation and four-point resolution also made it clear thus: “That the North is calling on politicians and other stakeholders to respect political agreements and allow the principle of zoning to run its full course, should not be construed as weakness on its part. Northerners have all it takes to win free and fair elections without special arrangements”.

But in far away Toronto, Canada, while addressing the Nigerian community and friends of Nigeria at the Marriot Easton Centre in Downtown, Toronto, Canada, the subject individual, President Jonathan, lampooned those chanting the mantra of zoning.

Jonathan said: “We are a country where our leaders tend to play tribal sentiments, saying I am from the South-South; I am from North-west; I am North, I am South, I am a Muslim and I am a Christian.
“All these are selfish motives to make people who probably cannot compete with others…to use these sentiments”, Jonathan said.
Operating under the aegis of NORTHERN POLITICAL LEADERS’ FORUM, resolutions 1 and 2 of their statement are already being effectuated.
Sunday Vanguard gathered that Town Hall meetings are already being held
across the north.
Resolution one and three of the communiqué reads, respectively:

“(1) The scope of this meeting be expanded to include and comprise all other interest groups, political parties and persons who share the goals and objectives of the meeting. In this regard, it was resolved that other important personalities and stakeholders, especially General Muhammadu Buhari and Governor Ibrahim Shekarau who have publicly declared their intention to aspire to the office of President be invited to the next meeting. Furthermore, the Northern Elders Assembly which is pursuing similar goals be integrated and its members invited to the next meeting.

“(3) The leadership of the forum shall meet and address the Northern Governors Forum and the Northern Legislators Caucus in both Houses of the National Assembly as well as Emirs and Traditional Rulers to appraise them of the objectives of the forum and the task at hand.”
Three committees have already been established by the Forum and they are Planning and Strategy Committee:  Professor Ignatius Ayua – Chairman, Dr. Abubakar Siddique Mohammed, Professor Yakubu Mukhtar, Dr. Sule Bello, Sen. Davis Iornem, Professor Nuhu Yaqub, Dr. Junaid Mohammed, Alhaji Usman Alhaji, Basher Yusuf Ibrahim, Farouk B.B. Farouk, Omar Shittien, Prof. Maxwell Gidado, Sen. Salisu Ibrahim Matori; Contact and Mobilization Committee: Mallam Adamu Ciroma – Chairman (North Central) General Ibrahim B. Babangida (Rtd), Gen. I.M. Wushishi )Rtd), Maj. Gen David Jemibowen (Rtd), Chief Audu Ogbeh, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, Amb. Yahaya Kwande, Alh. Shaba Lafiagi, Prof. Daniel Saror, Mr. Patrick Adaba, Alh. Mohammed Hassan (Ciroman Keffi); (North East)Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Shettima Mustafa, Alh. Mohammed Bello Kirfi, Prof. Saad Abubakar, Amb. Yarima Abdullahi, Sen. Abubakar Mahdi, Prof. Isa B. Mohammed, Alh. Dahiru Bobbo, Alh. Yakubu Tsala; and (North West), Alh. M.D. Yusufu, Alh. Umaru Aliyu Shinkafi, Alh. Lawal Kaita, Sen. M.T. Liman, AVM Hamza Abdullahi, Alh. Magaji Dambatta, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Magoro (Rtd), Sen. Garba Ila Gada, Alh. Yahaya Abdulkarim, Alh. Usman Alhaji
Publicity Committee: Alhaji Magaji DAMBATTA – Chairman, Chief Audu Ogbeh, Alhaji Sani Zangon Daura, Mallam Mohammed Haruna, Mallam Bukar Zarma, Alh. Ahmed Mohammed Gusau, Amb. Zubairu Dada

Unlike what happened in 2002, when the North attempted to create possible scenarios, the north is simply demanding that the field should be left open for it to play, just as was simulated in 1999 when only two major presidential candidates emerged not just from the south, but from the South West geo-political zone. Just last Monday, Chief Anthony Anenih made it clear that the much vaunted zoning arrangement which is referred to as a Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, arrangement, was never strictly adhered to.

The 1999 presidential primaries of the PDP were ontested by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Dr. Alex     Ekweme, Chief Don Etiebet, Chief Jim Nwobodo, Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, Chief Francis Ellah and Chief Philip Asiodu, all from the south, and late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, from the North – all of them bought the form.

In 2003, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Dr. Alex Ekweme and Owelle Anayo Rochas Okorocha from the south collected the forms, while, inspite of the said zoning of the office to the South, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and Chief Banabas Gemade, from the North, picked the forms.

In 2007, working on the purported zoning, which should have been the exclusive preserve of the North, the following collected the forms for the Presidential primaries of the same PDP:  From the North, were, Mrs. Sara Jibril, Gen, Buba Marwa, Prof. Jerry Gana, Gen Mamma Kontagora, Sen. (Dr.) A.P. Sawa, Gov Abdulahi Adamu, Dr. (Mrs) Mary A. Olutimayin, Gen. Ibrahim B. Babagida, Late Gov. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Gov. Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, Gov. Alh. Ahmed M. Makarfi, Princes Hadiza Golen, Alhaji Mohammed Gusau, Gov. Ahmed Adamu Mu’azu.

From the South (and in a year when the office of President was supposedly restricted to the North), there was this multitude of people who collected the form:  Gov. Victor Attah, Gov. Dr. Peter Otunuya Odili, Gov. Dr. Sam Egwu, Amb. Rev. Princess E. Egbon-Day, Admr Okhai Michael Akhigbe, Chief Okoh Ebitu Ukiwe, Gov. Chief Achike Udenwa, Chief (Dr.) Zeb Abule, Mrs. Rev. Mary U. Onuka, Denis Uzoma Eheduru, Gov. Donald Duke, Amb. Raph Uwechue, Gov. Chimaroke Nnamani, Owelle Anayo Rochas Okorocha, Dr. Godson M. Nnaka and Chief Albert Korubo Horsfall.
In 2007, there were 14 politicians from the North who picked the form whereas there were 16 politicians from the South.

With the present action of the NORTHERN POLITICAL LEADERS’ FORUM, the North may have betrayed that sense of proprietary control over all matters of Nigeria.

The scenarios presented in the paper in 2002 did not only demonstrate a sense of imperialism but also suggested that the North would always have the final say.

When Charles Kindleberger, an American economist said “There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend getting richer (or becoming more prosperous)” he did not know that some politicians in Nigeria would act accordingly.

That 2002 secret document warned that “there is no guarantee that an Igbo president will not be more vicious in emasculating the North further” citing what it called “Igbo reputation for ruthlessness” and the possibility that the Igbo may “once again seek to actualise their secession from Nigeria towards the end of their tenure.”

Analyzing the options before the North, the paper sets out three alternatives for the presidential election. These were a South-North ticket; and a North South East ticket.  It simply dismissed a North-South-South ticket, or a South-South-North ticket as not being “politically pragmatic”.

The following implications maybe considered, the paper said: “The zone (South South, from where Jonathan hails) may not vote en bloc since unlike the South-West and the South East, it is esthetically diverse and internally more rancorous. There is no guarantee that the zone will massively support “one of their own.

“There is the likelihood that the South-East and South-West may vote against a South-South/North ticket with dire consequences for the North as well as the stability of the country.

“The zone lacks the financial and media clout of the other Southern geo- political zones. It is better, in the interest of stability, for the zone to take its “natural turn” after the major ethnic groups