By Kayode Oladele

The bipolar opposition coalition forming against President Bola Tinubu appears to be an uneasy alliance of strange bedfellows – Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and others with vastly different ideas without  clear ideologies and political trajectories. Their shared goal of unseating the President may not be enough to overcome their internal contradictions which is also threatened by the law of the negation of the  negotiation.

Without a unified, unambiguous alternative policy platform or coherent leadership structure, the opposition  coalition can at best,  be perceived as marriage of convenience rather than a platform for providing a more credible and more reliable alternative for Nigerians in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. 

Political science teaches us that such opposition  coalitions can succeed only when built on shared principles, not just mutual resentment against the sitting President. Whether this opposition coalition front can present a viable challenge that can mussel life out of the  All Progressives Congress (APC ) government will depend on its ability to build trust, articulate a clear national agenda, and appeal beyond narrow political bases. Unfortunately, it is difficult to see any of these fundamental elements in the present opposition agitation and gang-up coalition against President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) Party. 

Conversely, Tinubu’s  political machinery is not just built on rhetoric but on decades of deliberate institution-building, loyal patronage networks and a knack for striking alliances for mutual benefit. Unlike his rivals, who often rely on reactionary politics or populist waves, the President placidly plays the long distance  game with the words of desiderata: one carefully calibrated move at a time.

Whether he is navigating the internal politics of the APC, disarming dissents within his base, or neutralizing potential opposition threats, Tinubu has demonstrated a mastery of Nigerian politics that few can match. And unless the opposition coalition  can offer more than sporadic outrage or opportunistic alliances, he will continue to dictate the tempo of Nigeria’s political future heading into 2027 general elections. 

Within the opposition coalition , it is clear that many joiners are focused mainly on their personal ambitions and long-term goals powered by the desire for grabbing raw power rather than offering real panacea  to the challenges they pretentiously claim to be facing the country under the current administration. This indicates that many opposition coalition members prioritize their own empowerment and ambitious over national interests.

Their decisions to oppose the President has no beneficial or positive impact on the general public nor has it addressed  important national issues. Examining the profiles of the frontline figures within the opposition coalition will provide valuable insights into their history, characters and the bumpy roads that lie ahead of their contorted orchestra that sounds like a broken  record. 

The lead vocalist, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is often described as a hardy perennial contender whose political journey has traversed nearly all of Nigeria’s major political platforms. To date, he has contested the presidency six times. His first attempt was in 1993 when he sought the presidential ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) but lost to the late Moshood Abiola, whose eventual election was annulled by the military regime of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida.

In 2007, Atiku contested under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) but was unsuccessful. In 2011, he returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), only to lose the presidential ticket to then-President Goodluck Jonathan. He later joined the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2014 but lost the party’s ticket to the former President  Muhammadu Buhari. He eventually became the PDP’s presidential candidate in 2019 and 2023, losing both elections, most recently to President Bola Tinubu.

 With eyes now on 2027, Atiku is once again maneuvering through the political terrain, scavenging on some passing throbs occasioned by the government’s bold reform policies in a bid to court public sympathy and support. Critics argue that he has become emblematic of political persistence without renewal. He has exhausted all his trump cards and incapable of spinning surprises in order to gain any electoral advantage over the President.

Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) Presidential  candidate in 2023, emerged as a third-force figure, galvanizing urban youth and disaffected voters through the “Obidient” movement. However, some critics argue that the movement leaned heavily on ethnic and religious sentiments, lacking a cohesive national strategy. Others view it as a necessary disruption to Nigeria’s entrenched two-party dominance. The 2023 elections showcased both the energy and limitations of the movement, raising questions about whether Obi’s appeal can translate into a broader coalition with national viability ahead of the 2027 elections.

 Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has recently reemerged as a vocal critic of the Tinubu administration after being sidelined from ministerial appointments due to his failure to scale through the rigorous Senate confirmation. He is now reportedly aligning with the opposition coalition to wrestle power with the President in 2027. 

The opposition coalition team also includes a pocket of some other aggrieved figures within the APC  fold itself  who claims exclusion from the Party. While some of their complaints are framed as calls for inclusivity, political pundits suggest that they may be rooted more in personal political survival than in genuine concern for balance or equity.

Be that as it may, these  elements are coming together to form a moribund alliance and bipolar opposition  coalition against the President. However, Nigerians are bored by their rhetoric and lack of policy alternatives even though,  what they fail to realize is that, at the end of the day, the PDP is thinning out while the APC is swelling up as it continues to witness mass defections into its fold at a geometrical rate. Ultimately, the aggregate of the elements decamping from the PDP to the APC and those leaving the PDP to form another third-force opposition coalition will turn the PDP into a mere carcass, which will eventually weaken the opposition against the President. 

 Despite these opposition threats, President Tinubu’s administration is pushing ahead with his progressive reforms as encapsulated in the Renewed Hope Agenda. These reforms are not without pain, but they represent essential steps in correcting decades of fiscal irresponsibility and lack of political direction.  

As the country braces for the road to 2027, Nigerians will ultimately judge their leaders not just by rhetoric or past affiliations or the opposition coalition’s politically motivated feeble  narratives and lack of direction , but by who, like the President, offers the most credible pathway to economic stability, national unity, security and good governance. For now, Tinubu’s reform agenda has sparked a shift in the political conversation from failed promises to good governance and sterling performance. 

Oladele, a lawyer, is a member of the Federal Character Commission